Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[Ice Day]

Could we see a cross-polar flow on the 216? Doubtful, but whatever there's big changes afoot

[blizzard81]

Incredible output this evening. This is how it all starts imo - at day 3. Just look at that brilliant negatively tilted troughing over the UK. Stretched beautifully and pulled down into Europe. Without this, I don't think we would be seeing that sudden height rise to our north west at day 6. 

Edited February 8 by blizzard81

[Ice Day]

Crazy chart at 216 

[feb1991blizzard]

Lovely, even more so if it's coupled with the strat.

[TEITS]

 blizzard81 No surprise to me. Although I wasn't sure how it may change but instinctively the previous output didn't seem correct to me.

 

[Drifter]

Could be an incredible day 10 chart. Hopefully things might start accelerating now 

[Lukesluckybunch]

I'm expecting the trough to cut right back at 240..height punching through it..with a bitter northeasterly..let's see

[StretfordEnd1996]

Bit of a surprise to see this appear all of a sudden

 

[Eagle Eye]

12Z GFS has helped set the trend towards a split semi in stone, much better than all the displements runs earlier. Hopefully the trend continues and better. Still quite far out. 

[Ice Day]

240 - not quite, but this won't be the final outcome

 

The fact that the UK and ECM are in almost perfect unison at 168 is a major plus.  Exciting days ahead

[Allseasons-Si]

Oh!!!!

i didn't expect that from the ECM,...nice

days 9/10...

Edited February 8 by Allseasons-Si
typo

[Lukesluckybunch]

The Azores had just had to poke it's nose in at 240...but I don't think it's the main player at that stage..

[blizzard81]

 TEITS Indeed. It's as if the models knew the direction of travel and the end result but didn't quite know which way to go in order to achieve it. If that makes sense? 

 Lukesluckybunch Ha ha I was thinking exactly the same thing mate.

[johncam]

The problem is that's another 10 days of winter gone and we are no closer to anything really cold that we really need at  this time of year. Not seeing anything in current model output to suggest otherwise.

[Cold Winter Night]

The EC 12z solution has been marching through the ensembles (EPS and GEFS) and now finally appears as an Operational solution, backed up by UKMO 12z at 168h.
And no lack of cold to the NE this time:

Although I'm not sure about the 'squeeze'  between Arctic High and Siberian High. But so far, so good.

[Methuselah]

 Drifter

Nothing too unusual there, then? 

[Cambrian]

If the 12z ECM’s nod towards a split PV at day 7/8 is taken at face value, the evolution from around that time shown in the 12z GEFS could well be of interest.

It’s much more definite in bringing the main PV action back to the Eurasian side from around mid month, here at days 8-14, developing a fresh Scandinavian trough that quite speedily reintroduces cold air, feeding steadily southwestwards through Northern Europe. 

 

That’s a very decent signal for a mean, even better if taken on the back of a prospective split. Looking forward to seeing the EPS later.

The models are definitely picking up on new signals today. Mid to late February still more than early enough to pack a punch in terms of winter interest, and for a good few weeks, before we properly turn the corner toward spring.

[blizzard81]

Just about the best ecm op run of the season imo. 

[Chesil View]

 blizzard81 but will it actually bring deep cold to thr UK. That's the question?

[Anthony Burden]

Evening all,ECM at last showing Greenland high / northern blocking from 192 hrs this is with out a doubt SSW leading the way with Exeter / Glosea who have so much technical information to feed into their forecasts that gives them a definite advantage.Expect Greenland high to become the leader from mid February in regards to UK weather pattern.

[blizzard81]

 Chesil View Nothing is guaranteed of course. However, this will be the best chance we have of bagging one this winter imo. 

[Met4Cast]

Even with a decent NH profile we still manage to see the Iberian heights poking it’s nose in

[blizzard81]

 Met4Cast Glass half empty then?  

[raz.org.rain]

 Met4Cast those Iberian heights continuing to prove their persistence! I wonder if this is unprecedented or if this is something we've seen before? It almost feels like we're entering a new period where we're dominated by Iberian highs. 
 

It may prove to be the final frustration of winter. It's a real thorn in the side and has repeatedly won out against the best of opposing synoptics.

[bluearmy]

 This won’t be exactly how it plays out 

The 12z runs have begun to sniff out the way forward but they can’t have stumbled across the correct route first time.  At least it makes the next few runs worth watching …..

note that the mid/upper strat was more split on the 00z run at day 10 than the 12z. Another run which doesn’t stack up as you might have expected