Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[AO-]

Good Morning, 

I would like to show how the operationals perform in terms of numbers and there seems to be a matter of an outlier when looking at EC. Nevertheless has the EPS downgraded a lot. It is not just miserable in England when it comes to winter, but in a large part of Europe I would say. Despite the promising signals, this is the current reality where the colder temperatures for next week have been replaced by mild ones. The average of colder temperatures seem to be slipping through our fingers like sand. 

 

Comparing EC and GFS it looks like there is a lot of agreement, but also a lot of uncertainty. 

This is also illustrated by the wind probability. There is no dominant direction of flow after day 5. It just really is a complex situation and the fact that there is no cold in store anywhere in Europe (except for Scandinavia which is getting more and more curious) doesn't really help. The fastest track to cold is a northerly followed by a blocking scenario. 

Edited February 10 by AO-

[Lukesluckybunch]

6z looking good at 156!.ended up really flat again..no progression north with the high..cold over Scandi nowhere to be seen!

Edited February 10 by Lukesluckybunch
Adding

[Johnp]

 Lukesluckybunch …and didn’t get any better after!

[Froze were the Days]

So were are the effects from this decent split SSW? as posted on Thursday by a couple of members...it's gone all very quiet in here!

[Gowon]

 Froze were the Days

Bluearmy reckons mid-month before the models get a handle of things.

[Blessed Weather]

16 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

So were are the effects from this decent split SSW? as posted on Thursday by a couple of members...it's gone all very quiet in here!

Latest GEFS forecasts and 84% are predicting a SSW with the mean showing this occurring around the 20th on the 0z run today:

Source: http://weatheriscool.com/page11.html

[blizzard81]

Gfs 06z control showing good continuity following on from the 00z control run. 

[nick sussex]

The wait for any sign of colder weather continues .

What sums up the outputs is the low to the sw which you’d expect to clear east allowing a stronger wedge of heights to develop to the north just sits there for days waiting to phase with the deeper upstream trough .

We still  might scrape a brief easterly but there’s no cold left to the east .

It’s really like pulling teeth at the moment !

[blizzard81]

Why are the gfs ens on meteociel so much slower at coming out now compared to years ago? Crazy. 

[blizzard81]

The more favourable long term mean creeping back in. 

[ICE COLD]

It looks like we’re looking at a double warming up top - 

Day 5 it starts - 

 

Then by day 10 it starts to wane - 

 

Before starting to re emerge and take the vortex completely down between days 10 and 16 . That is quite a big SSW which could lead to a very interesting March .

PV completely split and destroyed . 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Split vortex on the control at 300...better late then never!

Edited February 10 by Lukesluckybunch
Adding

[blizzard81]

Some on here 'may' regret throwing in the towel over the last day or so. 

[Lukesluckybunch]

7 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Some on here 'may' regret throwing in the towel over the last day or so. 

I doubt it blizzard...why would they still well outside the reliable!

[blizzard81]

 Lukesluckybunch Oh don't get me wrong Luke - hence the apostrophe's. I certainly don't blame anybody for having enough this winter. It's been draining. I still happen to think February will have a last hurrah though!

[feb1991blizzard]

 blizzard81

Yes, it's turned into a cracking suite, unfortunately the EPS didn't build on the great st yesterday, so we need that tonight.

[Lukesluckybunch]

4 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

don't get me wrong Luke - hence the apostrophe's. I certainly don't blame anybody for having enough this winter. It's been draining. I still happen to think February will have a last hurrah though!

Well I would love that as much as a you!what really winds me up are these ec46 charts..they look way off the mark currently!

[Lukesluckybunch]

The period day 6 into 7..still looks interesting and we could improve a lot more!..problem is as the high builds in..over the uk or slightly too the east it pushes the cold away over scandi!ideally we want a build of heights to the West of uk!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

 blizzard81 I agree and an awful lot of the GFS ensemble runs do too.  Far from a done deal at this stage.  I love run 26…..if only

 

BFTP

[bluearmy]

 Froze were the Days  Gowon

We should wait until closer to the reversal to see if the models begin to show better grouping around a different way forwards and certainly until afterwards for signs that they didn’t work it out 

Re timing -  whilst there will be a degree of variance on dates for reversal at 60N 10hpa between the 16th and 20th, the action up top  starts 15/16th and thats the date to use to check continuity. 

We are seeing inconsistencies run to run on gfs ops ref the reversal and what strat pattern follows 

what seems fairly solid for now is that a split spv is more likely lower down than high up. That throws in a degree of uncertainty. 

Edited February 10 by bluearmy

[Mike Poole]

 feb1991blizzard Yes, would agree we need a good EPS suite to give even an entry pass to the last chance saloon.  The SSW might still deliver, but the trouble is, SSW, MJO, GWO, all are backed by good science but I wouldn’t trust any of them to deliver cold to the UK.

The opposite, though, if any signal is predicting mild, it’ll be bang on!

[northwestsnow]

 Mike Poole last line all day long.

After 20 years of chasing cold ive reached the tipping point.

I'll  visit  this great site of course and ramp away when the opportunity arises ,but the days of ' oh look at those eps ' at day 15 are over because lets call a spade a spade here , 99% of those cold  eps turn out to be cyber / reality cold .

Edited February 10 by northwestsnow

[bluearmy]

Re the gefs 06z suite 

the mean Atlantic low anoms head in around T300. Looking through the stamps there are plenty of runs which don’t do this. But the ones that do are not at a good latitude to bring a snow event.  
 

the scandi trough pushes sw a couple days later - that looks a better set up 

[Cloud 10]

Nice to see some decent cold uppers at the backend of the 06z ens.mean.

 

[blizzard81]

 feb1991blizzard Indeed mate. Let's see what the ec 06z control brings up to 144 hours. Due out on meteociel over the next hour or so.