Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[Boro Snow]

 Sherry What's models/Charts are you looking at to come to that conclusion, im not seeing very mild temperatures 

[phil nw.]

 bluearmy

Yes it's a case of what Iberian ridge Nick.

 

A  colder north westerly pattern building up by the looks.Atlantic trough digging deep into Europe and touching N.Africa and the jet well south.

The Azores high squeezed south and west.

[Sherry]

 Boro Snow gfs shows up to 16 on the latest run by next weekend 

[Rain All Night]

14 hours ago, Rain All Night said:

12z deterministic runs, Tue 20th to Mon 26th (day 7)

Choose your toppler!

12z ensemble means, Tue 20th to Tue 5th (day 15)

All agree on the signal for a further polar maritime low to be thrown at us after the Atlantic ridge has toppled (or sunk), with differing timing.

From day 13 onwards we see agreement on a continued Azores high presence (especially on GEFS) and a general rise in heights (especially on ECM).

Could the ultimate legacy of the stratosphere this year, after apparently denying us a cold heart of winter, be to condemn us to a late spring?

0z deterministic runs, Tue 20th to Tue 27th (day 7)

GFS op runs, like its ensemble means, continue to make more of the trough going down into Europe, with the Atlantic high more reluctant to topple over it.

0z ensemble means, Tue 20th to Wed 6th (day 15)

ECM and GEM still seem to send in a second big low behind the toppling Atlantic ridge by around 29th Feb (day 9), which may be followed by a second toppling ridge behind it.

GFS continues to want to sink, rather than topple, the Atlantic ridge (and make more of the trough going into Europe), which appears to delay the arrival of the next big low by perhaps a day or two, and possibly hinder its progress through the UK.

Edited February 20 by Rain All Night

[Dennis]

the block .....

 

[CoventryWeather]

Starting to see differences appearing again towards days 7-10. 

The GFS more interested in the Iberian ridge again moving north, allowing a drier picture for Europe, also warmer as we develop a southerly airflow. Not too much support from the ECM though, pretty consistent on a strong northwesterly. 

Think we all know what the beat solution is for us - a drier pattern! Certainly no really option at the moment but GFS a real trend setter recently, no doubting that.

[Daniel*]

1 hour ago, CoventryWeather said:

The GFS more interested in the Iberian ridge again moving north, allowing a drier picture for Europe,

It was at very top end of ensemble vast majority are maintaining the cooler and more unsettled weather into early March. 

[Dennis]

newest AO ideas

[CoventryWeather]

 Daniel* you looked at just one ensemble run - it's been fairly consistent past few days. Ensembles aren't at the same resolution so the OP will pick up the trend first. 

[Daniel*]

1 minute ago, CoventryWeather said:

you looked at just one ensemble run - it's been fairly consistent past few days. Ensembles aren't at the same resolution so the OP will pick up the trend first. 

Mate that’s exactly what you’re doing going by GFS op. The ultimate cherry pick. There is consensus amongst EC and GEFS for a generally unsettled cool ish westerly flow into early March. Models do a better job with these more normal patterns.

[Methuselah]

 Daniel*

But not so bad as posting weird and wonderful cherry-picked perturbations? 

[danm]

 

[LRD]

32 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Mate that’s exactly what you’re doing going by GFS op. The ultimate cherry pick.

To be fair using a GFS op run to 'cherry pick' is better than seeking out perturbation 8, 15 or 27, etc, etc, which some on here do. But, you're right, the 6z op was a very warm run compared to the ensemble suite

It looks as though winter is going to end on an unpleasant note with some wintry weather on high ground in the north. Looking like cold rain for most of us, though. GFS 12z shows a right dog's dinner in its latter frames

[LRD]

Very chilly GFS 12z FI

But it all looks unconvincing

[RJBingham]

 LRD  

 

As you say, way out in FI, as always, time will tell

[LRD]

 RJBingham Yep. The N'ly does continue to the end of the run but it's FI and let's see where it sits in the pack. The op was showing a S'ly on the 6z which kind of sums up FI really! But they're charts, they're there and available so nothing wrong with discussing them I don't think

I actually would be ok with a cold spell in March (as long as it doesn't go on and on) if it meant a warm April and May

[Methuselah]

 RJBingham

Meanwhile, today's Deep Dive asks the obvious question: Are we seeing a very early demise of the PV? Should the answer to that be 'yes', I think we might be about to experience a very long summer. But whether or not it'll be a hot one is another question entirely. 

[RJBingham]

 LRD I agree, nothing wrong with discussing what's showing, so long as it's being realistic like you've done, as for the cold, let's hope it's gone tomorrow   

[AO-]

 LRD

Good afternoon,

 

What looks unconvincing? Please tell, because the season approaches in which changes appear quickly from one day to the next. The GFS is not a very odd calculation. I suppose the scatter becomes greater as the chaos of the atmosphere is increasing. 

[daz_4]

Once again very impressive warmth showing on GFS for the end of the month for Central Europe. This month is truly extraordinary.

[LRD]

 AO- Gut instinct after looking at these models, on and off, for years

And, as I say, a warm S'ly on the 6z and now a chilly N'ly in similar time frames on the 12z. No consistency = unconvincing

[AO-]

 daz_4

True, but what may be more important is the disappearing of the Iberian high and the rain that finally hits Spain. Over 100 mm in the next two weeks according to GFS. It is not the first run with this amount of precipitation. 

Edited February 20 by AO-

[daz_4]

 AO- Yep, good for them if it verifies. They desperately need it.

[andymusic]

Monster startwarm going on right now - could be an interesting March into April

gfs 12z in la la land definitely colder options on the table

[AO-]

 LRD

I think that is congruent with the season. Small changes in course van have an immense effect. If you take March 2013 as an example 6 and 7 March were warmest in records whereas the 11th saw snow and an ice day. I think the volatility of the atmosphere increases and therefore the reliability is louter than average. So I agree with you, but it is to soon to draw a conclusion.