Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 MP-R el niño was a driver of last year's summer as well as the east QBO.   The way I see it these days is you get with an el niño summer a hot month and a wet month in a niño driven summer.   

We have to also take into consideration that summer 2023 was the eighth summer in a row that was above 16 in the CET series which we shouldn't be disgruntled over at all.   

As things stand currently I would recommend people monitor the MJO plots to see if any trends start appearing, after the active MJO we are having we then go into a no man's land where its in the cod area.    

We need coherence here of what will happen.     

[Alderc 2.0]

 Addicks Fan 1981 we’ve had this conversation dozens of time, high CETs dont always correlate to decent weather. The mild nights massively compensated against the low maxima. July and August were dreadful, 18days failed to reach 21C here and only 2 managed 25C. 

[MP-R]

17 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

 MP-R el niño was a driver of last year's summer as well as the east QBO.   The way I see it these days is you get with an el niño summer a hot month and a wet month in a niño driven summer.   

We have to also take into consideration that summer 2023 was the eighth summer in a row that was above 16 in the CET series which we shouldn't be disgruntled over at all. 

Not sure if you meant to quote my post as I can't see how it relates 100%, but yes that does often seem the case. Sometimes the hot and wet coincides e.g. Aug 2004 and 1997.

Wrt to your second point, and as @Alderc 2.0 pointed out above, CET is largely irrelevant. June did a lot of the heavy lifting last summer anyway. The higher CET just meant the turd came out sloppier than perhaps otherwise.

[WYorksWeather]

12z GFS

Tonight's GFS ensembles seem to be pretty firm on the idea of a cooler spell from next Friday through around the 26th, and then a great deal of uncertainty still prevailing for Easter, which is to be expected at this stage. As always somewhat cooler further north than in the south, but I would still say cooler or un-springlike as opposed to cold - not a single ensemble gets the temperature down to 0C even as far north as Newcastle. Will probably feel colder than it is since it follows a very mild period.

Easter - early look

Anyway, I know there's a lot of uncertainty, but I think it might be fun to just have a look at the early prospects for Easter. Looking here for dry weather - would prefer warm but less bothered about temperature than I am that it be a dry one.

From that perspective, the GFS 12z plays the party pooper. Here are the charts at midday for Good Friday through the weekend and up to the Tuesday - need I say anything else? Just vile from start to finish - deep low pressure around or over the UK for the entire bank holiday. I suppose the good news is we're a long way out yet, so still time for this to change.

The mean is also fairly low pressure dominated, so little point in posting it.

The temperature postage stamps for Easter Sunday show a lot of variation, as would be expected this far out. A few colder options, some warm, most fairly indifferent to be honest. The precipitation charts don't look very promising, however. Most of them have a fair bit of rain, so a largely or entirely dry Easter Sunday is very much a minority option.

 

[Alderc 2.0]

GFS 12Z is about a bad as it can get for the easter weekend. Hopefully time for the pattern to shift however GFS has now shown this a few times in the last day or two. 

[WYorksWeather]

Don't have time to wait for the full ECM ensemble so just going to focus on the wider SST / zonal wind anomalies with the ECM tonight.

North Atlantic SSTs

In absolute values (at day 0 / 5 / 10 / 15), we see that the North Atlantic SSTs are beginning to recover from their annual low, but only very slowly. Main noticeable change is a slight warming just to our east, but elsewhere SSTs are still projected to fall through to early April.

In the anomaly view, we see a strong warm anomaly building immediately to our east, but elsewhere anomalies are almost universally down. This should lead to more 'normal' westerly and/or south-westerly temperatures through early April, as the Azores temperature anomaly in particular is much reduced, and elsewhere temperatures fall back to near normal levels.

Zonal wind

The ECM projects that the ongoing SSW will not be the final warming. Westerly zonal winds are expected to resume by the end of March, and persist until around the end of April or into early May.

[damianslaw]

Ominous signals from the GFS for easter, yes a long way off, but it has held firm on the idea of blocking to our north and north east, and a deep slow moving cyclonic trough to our SW, held in situ by the heights to our north. The outcome a decidedly unsettled Easter, none too mild either, quite cold in the north. 

In the near timeframe, all models in agreement of a change by Friday with the trough finally shifting east allowing a colder but more importantly sunnier polar airstream to take hold and drier too. Im fed up of the mild south westerly airstream gunk prevailing right now and am happy to see such a prospect on the horizon simply as I am sun starved after nearing on 5 months of gloom - it takes its toll at this of time, people's energy reaches an all time annual low.. 

Edited March 17 by damianslaw

[WYorksWeather]

 Alderc 2.0 In that case, we put all our eggs in the GFS P06 basket. Weather fines up perfectly for the Easter period - warm, dry and sunny. 

We can dream I guess...

 

[stodge]

Evening all

Far too early to be "calling" Easter - it looks as though we will get a brief N'ly next weekend as a transient mid-Atlantic ridge breaks the LP sequence and with a continuing signal for heights to the far north, the negative alignment of what looks a vigorous LP system coming out of North America looks a pre-cursor to potential trough disuption in the days immediately before Easter.

A lot to be resolved on any energy distribution but those fearing an unsettled and potentially wet Easter weekend, especially for southern and western parts, may not be incorrect at this time but there's a very long way to go on this one just yet.

The 10HPA charts suggest whatever zonal wind there is will be very light and the jet stream inclines to a more southerly track over western Europe.

[WYorksWeather]

For the longer range, let's hope EC46 has the right idea for once. No clear dry signal, but at least the wetter than average signal disappears once we get into April.

Weeks 1 - 3:

Weeks 4 - 6:

Let's enjoy it in chart form at least - my cynicism about dry spells is reaching new heights lately. At some stage though, the pattern will shift. Either that, or I'll have to take canoeing lessons.

[stodge]

If you want a dry April, the best way is to have lots of northern blocking with strong HP over Scandinavia keeping the jet far to the south and the LP over Europe.

Some hints of that in tonight's 12Z CFS though the LP is never that far away from the south west.

[damianslaw]

 WYorksWeather In an average year April is one if not the driest month of the year, especially in the NW... very wet April's can happen a la 2012, but it is a month I associate with dry weather more than any other, we've had bone dry April's. its also the month I associate most with northern blocking and northerly and easterly airstreams, far more likely to verify in April and May than any other months.  Lets see if the GFS holds firm on this signal.

Edited March 17 by damianslaw

[Mike Poole]

 WYorksWeather Interesting SST anomalies there.  I would say there is some work to do to get into a good position for summer from there. 

I am expecting an abrupt change to warm/hot weather to manifest itself at some point, but I would not expect it before the last third of April.  The reason I say this is due to the SSW, with a signficant reversal of winds in the stratosphere providing some continuing influence as the effect continues to downwell - the renewed westerlies predicted above at 10hPa will act to force this and we probably have to wait it out before the more benign spring patterns can take effect.  By that time the sun will be much stronger, and, as I say, an abrupt change is possible - at which point the SST pattern should start to change as well.

So spring very much a slow burner this year, which is in contrast to the years when the strat vortex merely peters out into the final warming without a late SSW, and spring patterns can take hold much earlier.  

[Don]

1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

I am expecting an abrupt change to warm/hot weather to manifest itself at some point, but I would not expect it before the last third of April.

A pretty safe bet these days and it's not like we've had a cold start to the year.  2024 likely to be the third year on the trot to have a CET of more than 11C?!

Edited March 17 by Don

[Rain All Night]

10 hours ago, Rain All Night said:

0z deterministic runs, out to Sun 24th (day 7)

The trough passing to our east may produce a brief northerly for next weekend.

0z ensemble means, out to Mon 1st (day 15)

Once the little toppling ridge has passed over us, will the developing trough to our west meet rising heights to our east - again? I feel we've already seen this pattern several times in the preceding months.

12z deterministic runs, out to Sun 24th (day 7)

12z ensemble means, out to Mon 1st (day 15)

Happy Easter everyone 

[KTtom]

GFS 0z officially loosing the plot by serving us this Easter hurricane! That said, we need a flip soon because it has been consistant with a very unsettled end of March.

[ANYWEATHER]

 KTtom that’s is over 300 hrs away. Models are struggling with five days ahead !

[Alderc 2.0]

 ANYWEATHER however gfs has now been consistently forecasting an extremely unsettled Easter period so while it’s unlikely a storm of that magnitude will occur the hope of decent spell of weather for the long weekend looks a long way off….

[Rain All Night]

11 hours ago, Rain All Night said:

12z deterministic runs, out to Sun 24th (day 7)

12z ensemble means, out to Mon 1st (day 15)

Happy Easter everyone 

0z deterministic runs, out to Mon 25th (day 7)

The northerly looks quite nippy for this weekend.

0z ensemble means, out to Tue 2nd (day 15)

The signal is unfortunately clear and consistent for a "big trough" arriving later next week...

[Jordan S]

On 15/03/2024 at 09:13, Jordan S said:

The key change from the quoted post of mine above being the northeasterly that looked a possibility in the third week of March, wont take hold with blocking to our north proving weaker than expected at first

Morning,

Just a quick one today, must of been half asleep when I typed this part there are north/northeast winds albeit brief along with colder temperatures, though nothing unusual with a few wintry showers in the north/northeast possible, especially on high ground.

The latter frames of the models recently are typical of the extensive northern blocking that is set to build and dominate further, with any brief spells of drier weather most likely in the north/northwest during Easter and indeed early April as said previously, though unsettled is the main theme for the UK as a whole, cool for the time of year out of lengthy sunshine in the north with wintry showers a continued possibility but quite typical for the time of year, very unsettled conditions still more likely to move in from our south/southwest over Easter and beyond for southern and western parts in particular, only a remote chance of any snow here, just potentially again very wet with slow moving fronts, northeast/easterly winds especially in the north a high likelihood, more variable/southwest/southeasterly for the southern part of England, potentially some thunderstorms in the far south.

Temperatures around or slightly below average overall in the south is favoured but could see slightly warmer air clipping the east/southeast for the Easter Period, this is a very consistent possibility in my recent posts but precise timeframes being different, but with how unsettled it’s likely to be, it may not be of much benefit with a large amount of cloud possible.

Gfs update this morning seems to show the high to our north slightly too east, further west is more likely.

Overall it’s a similar outlook to the one I did about a week ago.

After first week of April there maybe a slightly increased chance of lengthier drier conditions developing further for the UK although temperatures may not be particularly impressive from neither a cold/warm point of view, but sunshine totals may be somewhat above average.

 

Have a good day. 

Edited March 18 by Jordan S

[KTtom]

 ANYWEATHER I was aware of that, my point being, was, no matter how far ahead, what a ridiculous chart. 

[danm]

 

[andymusic]

GFS 12z a pretty cold weekend coming up and also going into next week (beginning and middle)

[ANYWEATHER]

 andymusic well at least there will be some sparking sunshine for many ......☺

[WYorksWeather]

 Mike Poole There is some suggestion (can't remember which weather expert / pro meteorologist it was on Twitter) that a late final warming (so if the zonal wind does indeed recover from the current SSW) correlates with warmer / hotter summers. So you could well be on the right track there.

Of course, no one correlation / pattern match determines our weather, it's much more complex than that!