Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[damianslaw]

A change in the ECM and UKMO output for next weekend at least, the azores high sitting out west with a deep trough pushing east pulling in a chilly northerly, GFS heads the same way, then develops extensive northern blocking. They must be responding to some new signal, when you see abrupt changes arising in the 6-7 day timeframe it does suggest 'new developments', perhaps more varied fayre for the latter part of the month, compared to the very generous very mild albeit dull wet big middle..

Edited March 16 by damianslaw

[IDO]

 damianslaw

I. would not pay any attention to D10 charts as they have been worthless about pressure rises all this Winter, and 9 out of 10 times are outliers. Looking at the EC and GFS means, this is another case in point:

Both are clear outliers, especially the GFS. We would need 4-5 consistent runs showing this before it would be worth taking it seriously, as these random op runs showing colder charts have been popping up regularly for the last few weeks without one verifying.

The GEFS mean has been consistently good this year, and there is no change here; more of the same. D8-16:

[WYorksWeather]

 Beanz Fair point to be honest. That was a very quick post late last night - I think in my earlier posts I mentioned looking for dry weather now (almost regardless of temperature, but I'd prefer warm). I'll edit it to clarify.

EDIT: Apparently I can't edit last night's post, so it will have to stay as it is.

Edited March 16 by WYorksWeather

[Rain All Night]

21 hours ago, Rain All Night said:

0z deterministic runs, out to Fri 22nd (day 7)

Might spring be springing at the end of next week - for some of us at least - thanks to the Azores high?

0z ensemble means, out to Sat 30th (day 15)

It still looks like the swelling of the Azores high will be fairly brief, and that the pattern will then change to one with a more northwesterly vibe, with some kind of trough feature forming to our immediate west for the end of the month. I'm sure that'll be just lovely...

0z deterministic runs, out to Sat 23rd (day 7)

A little ridge is passing over us this morning, after which the next feature will be a tight little low swiping at us from the northwest on Tuesday, followed by a slack low forming to our south on Wednesday, the briefest of visits from the Azores high on Thursday, and finally the arrival of the pest from the northwest on Friday.

0z ensemble means, out to Sun 31st (day 15)

From next weekend onwards, further intrusions from the northwest look probable, with plenty of cooler air in the mix keeping us waiting for those shorts-and-t-shirt days.

Bonus

With a couple of significant teleconnection events underway, alongside the now-rapid increase in solar input, you'd be hopeful for some kind of shake-up to our weather pattern in the next few weeks - for better or worse.

(earth.nullschool.net screengrab shows winds at 10hPa as of now)

Edited March 16 by Rain All Night

[WYorksWeather]

The GFS 6z has now virtually eliminated the dry spell entirely, except for a brief couple of days in the south. Days 5 and 6 show a brief rise in pressure, but we then have low pressure encroaching from the east by day 7. Some possibility of cold interest maybe for those on high ground but for most this will undoubtedly be yet more cold rain with the -4C isotherm in late March.

 

And it only gets worse from there from a dry weather perspective. At day 10 the low near Iceland is threatening:

By day 12 we have a deep low sat out west, with its progression eastwards blocked by heights over Scandinavia with an extension to the north-west, just to the east of Iceland. We avoid the worst of any potential storminess, but it's still very unsettled.

Eastern areas look to have the best of what's about overall, but some pretty high rainfall totals by day 12 for those further west.

The shortened GFS 06z ensemble to Saturday shows a few solutions with more amplification of the Azores high signal, but they're very much a minority now.

You can see this as well for the full ensemble on the ECM 00z - the rise in pressure is pretty clearly a brief affair, barring a few outliers.

The ECM 00z is fairly similar to the GFS 6z in the way it breaks down the attempted height rise. However, this is probably a slightly better chart for dry weather at day 10 than the GFS - the deep low gets sent further north, and for most of the UK it looks like whilst it won't be completely settled, there's no sign of the really deep low pressure that the GFS 6z is showing.

In terms of temperature, we're looking at slightly above average by day and well above average by night for the next week, and near normal to slightly below average by day, but still above average by night, for the second week. Or at least, that is what the mean would imply.

[damianslaw]

 IDO Yes a change from a predominantly very mild unsettled large middle back to the earlier unsettled chillier/average start. Not a great prospect in the run up to Easter. 

Edited March 16 by damianslaw

[TillyS]

I just wondered if anyone else has encountered the same problem that I’m having. As some of you may know, I returned from Norway on Tuesday after an incredible fortnight. Everything there was so real: 2 metre lying snow, blizzards, crystal clear skies, northern lights, low temps etc.

Now I find that every day I’m staring at the UK model outputs run after run and I just can’t get excited by it any more. I mean, it’s all so inconsequential. So ‘meh.’ There’s just nothing really about UK weather that’s interesting bar the very occasional moment like a deep storm or a heatwave. Winters are as bland as blaaaah-bland can be.

I’m not knocking this country, at least I don’t think I am, but when you come back from somewhere where the weather is so real it just makes all this seem like nonsense.

I really really hope this won’t get deleted because it is about the model outputs. Maybe it might help us all to stop having squabbles about this or that model run when, really, nothing happens here of any great consequence (any more).

xx

 

[Metwatch]

23 hours ago, Summer8906 said:

2023, the year without a summer

We had one of the warmest Junes and September on record, so I wouldn't call that the year without a summer. Yes July and a lot of August wasn't dry or that warm with July particularly wet, but we still had a decent enough summer if the first half of September is counted; just the timing of a lot of the warmer drier conditions was misplaced. If somehow another 1816 happened following some sort of major volcanic eruption, I reckon that would drive even those that like rain and cool weather to insanity.

Edited March 16 by Metwatch

[AO-]

Good afternoon,

Even though cold is far away, another post from me before my break untill next winter. 

What strikes me lately with EC (I dont pay attention to GFS atm) is that the evening runs seem more settled/colder than the morning runs. It shows to me that forecast reliability is very low. Of course it's the season of transition where weather types can follow eachother quickly, but it wasn't that "unreliable" in the past.  Anyone the same impression? 

Edited March 16 by AO-

[ANYWEATHER]

 AO- Ecm output has been abysmal  for about 12 months now. Gfs has often trumped Ecm by a long margin. It may have been the king of reliability the past ,but no longer.....

[MP-R]

23 hours ago, Summer8906 said:

2023, the year without a summer

I hate to think what that makes the likes of the 2007-12 period…

[Mcconnor8]

 ANYWEATHER it may feel like that but on verification stats for the Northern Hemisphere the ECM has still been on top out of all the models more often than not in the last year.

[Bats32]

That trough out to the west looks locked on for Easter weekend. Depressing output. 

[damianslaw]

GFS continues to play around with extensive heights to our north as we approach Easter, Ive not been checking the ensembles to see where the ops are sitting in the means.. but I am taking note..

[WinterOf47]

 TillyS Model watching here has been a very depressing experience this year, and yes, most years. Having lived in Canada for 7 years though, with 70 centigrade difference between summer highs and winter lows, occasionally the weather can be a bit too real…prefer it to the Meh here though. Was an avid model watcher in Canada as something interesting was never far away. Here it sometimes feel like a cut and paste of any other week.

The models for the back end of the month into Easter here are looking increasingly like an abysmal winter is going to be followed by a really horrid early spring. If we get an immovable northern block it will really finish me off.

[minus10]

Notable that this is the second gefs 850s  run where the mean has dipped lower than it has been for some time around 24th...as it has been fairly rock solid in following the long term average recently...

...pressure ens not enthusiastic about raising pressure over the uk with the run wanting the  Atlantic trough to dig south..

 

...leading to higher pressure capping the uk to the north as illustrated on the anoms...

...for those...including myself wanting a more prolonged warmer and drier spell this isnt the best...however just one Gfs run...just have the nagging feeling that the current ssw will have an impact that is not wanted as we head into late March/ April..hope i am wrong unless it works for us in a drier and warmer sense... 

 

[Daniel*]

Signal for below average temperatures next weekend. Arctic air. 

[stodge]

Evening all

While those of us who enjoy looking at interesting synoptics may be more thrilled about T+240 charts than some, we all know they are beyond reliable and not to be taken too seriously.

There is though more than a hint in this evening's output of "something" happening as we approach Easter.

The first clue is the re-alignment of the trough, at the end of the week as heights start to develop south from the Pole and the PV sets up shop over Siberia. The LP dives SE into Scandinavia and we start to see a more WNW'ly airflow.

In the week leading up to Easter, could we then see trough disruption to the south as heights continue to build to the north?

Northern blocking in late March and early April - hardly unusual in all honesty. There are teases of a chilly E'ly but I suspect it won't be as dramatic but for those looking for a prolonged drier spell head north - the south is likely to remain susceptible to rain .

[Rain All Night]

12 hours ago, Rain All Night said:

0z deterministic runs, out to Sat 23rd (day 7)

A little ridge is passing over us this morning, after which the next feature will be a tight little low swiping at us from the northwest on Tuesday, followed by a slack low forming to our south on Wednesday, the briefest of visits from the Azores high on Thursday, and finally the arrival of the pest from the northwest on Friday.

0z ensemble means, out to Sun 31st (day 15)

From next weekend onwards, further intrusions from the northwest look probable, with plenty of cooler air in the mix keeping us waiting for those shorts-and-t-shirt days.

Bonus

With a couple of significant teleconnection events underway, alongside the now-rapid increase in solar input, you'd be hopeful for some kind of shake-up to our weather pattern in the next few weeks - for better or worse.

(earth.nullschool.net screengrab shows winds at 10hPa as of now)

12z deterministic runs, out to Sat 23rd (day 7)

12z ensemble means, out to Sun 31st (day 15)

Just for fun, the ECM ensemble clusters for days 11-15:

And the representative members for each cluster at day 15, the very end of March:

Edited March 16 by Rain All Night

[Snowfence]

 Anthony Burden  Anthony Burden

UKMO ends with s shirt lived screaming northerly - with wintry shower potential seemingly endorsed by the ecm, but less potently by the 0z GFS Op.

[bluearmy]

The trough drops just to our east as we head into next weekend 

the one to follow looks like it has our name on it  (not certain) and the one beyond that seems to be more likely to be to our west. There looks to be a retrogressive signal on this pattern with heights building over scandi and e europe. I wonder if we might see the second trough back a bit further west over the next few days modelling?  If this does verify then it offers the possibility of some warmth towards month end and the Easter weekend. 

[Rain All Night]

12 hours ago, Rain All Night said:

12z deterministic runs, out to Sat 23rd (day 7)

12z ensemble means, out to Sun 31st (day 15)

Just for fun, the ECM ensemble clusters for days 11-15:

And the representative members for each cluster at day 15, the very end of March:

0z deterministic runs, out to Sun 24th (day 7)

The trough passing to our east may produce a brief northerly for next weekend.

0z ensemble means, out to Mon 1st (day 15)

Once the little toppling ridge has passed over us, will the developing trough to our west meet rising heights to our east - again? I feel we've already seen this pattern several times in the preceding months.

Edited March 17 by Rain All Night

[Summer8906]

 MP-R If we consider July and Aug alone, I'd actually say 2023 was worse than any year from 2007-2012. Aug 2007 and 2012 were half-decent.

Perhaps similar to 1988, which also had an extremely dull wet July and a cloudy, cool and unsettled Aug with occasional transient warm spells, or 1992 which was kind of like 1988 but with the roles of July and August reversed.

Edited March 17 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

What do people make of the GFS 06z? It has "severe flooding event for southern and western areas" written all over it. More cyclonic even than now if that were at all possible, with a huge low stuck just west of us and constant active secondaries passing over us producing quite staggering rainfall amounts I suspect. Like a milder version of early April 1998.

Very strange synoptics for end of March, start of April. More reminiscent of the very worst kind of October and November.

I wonder whether high SSTs mean we are getting typical autumn and early winter synoptics in spring nowadays?

GFS 00z has the low a little further to the west, so just more damp, humid and cloudy rather than dangerously wet. Perhaps like the opening days of April 2014 which produced highly unseasonable very mild but very cloudy cyclonic southerlies.

Either way, 2024 continues to be the year without a spring.

Someone tell me that 06z op was an outlier...

Edited March 17 by Summer8906

[MP-R]

 Summer8906 August 2012 was too wet to be considered decent in my neck of the woods. It was better compared to June and July, but had it followed June and July 2014 for example, it would've been considered poor. Last August and 2007 are perhaps more comparable... a lot of dry anticyclonic weather with few extremes and occasional unsettled blips. 2007 did better on the sunshine, 2023 did better on the temperature. Both were poor from a thunderstorms point of view but neither had lengthy wet Atlantic spells like the Julys.

Anyway, back to the here and now, and all I can say looking at the models is...