Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[KTtom]

Ukmo with a cluster of lows swarming around the UK for mid next week...excellent agreement for such a timeframe, although I doubt there is anyone out there wanting this you have to admit  gfs been showing this outcome for the run up to easter consistantly for days now baring last nights blip. The low does look like it will start to fill a little by the time we get to the weekend but staying cool and unsettled. It might be 7 to 10 days away but unfortunately  ill be amazed if all models switch to something settled and warm.

Edited March 20 by KTtom

[Penrith Snow]

ECM shows potential for a warm dry Good Friday in the South East ahead of low pressure which  crosses the UK during the Easter weekend, all models now agree on the Easter weekend only temperature levels are up for grabs.

The bleak Easter to come is a kick in the teeth to a depressed Britain forced to endure months of miserable weather and economic gloom.

Article in today's Telegraph compares 2024 to 1979. I beg to differ, 1979 brought a fantastic winter, not everyone liked it but I loved it  

Andy

[ANYWEATHER]

1 hour ago, Penrith Snow said:

The bleak Easter to come is a kick in the teeth to a depressed Britain forced to endure months of miserable weather and economic gloom.

With all respect to your view ,but my point yesterday as probably noted ,is that why are people writing off Easter which is ten days away still?  It may come with a shock to many ,but Easter could well turn out much better than the 10+ days of modelling gunk ,computer models come out with at that timeframe...☺

[SunnyG]

 ANYWEATHER The problem seems to be that they never get it right when they predict a high and always get it right when they forecast a low.

[BlueHedgehog074]

A spell of drier, more High Pressured dominated weather would be very welcome to be honest, as it seems the Atlantic Lows just want to keep invading the scene. 

Even though the models are picking up a chillier Polar Maritime/Arctic Maritime flow coming in between the North-West and North during, and throughout, the weekend, it should bring some brighter weather conditions with it, especially towards Eastern areas of the UK. (However, showers could become a bit more concentrated towards Eastern parts on Sunday with the possibility of the flow turning more North-North-Westerly to Northerly).

So, showers would be the feature of this setup along with the sunny spells. And with the strong March sunshine it could fuel some quite beefy showers at times. Wintry for the hills and possibility to some lower levels, too, particularly during Saturday, as models in various forms, especially the GFS, show a strip of -5/-6*C 850 hPa temperatures filtering East through parts of the UK from the Northern Atlantic:

So showers of rain, sleet, graupel and particularly over high ground/hills, snow, between Friday (perhaps with some morning rain lingering for a time over Central and/or South-Eastern/Eastern areas beforehand on Friday) and Sunday. Again can imagine there would be some decent sunny spells between at times, and away from the chilly wind, it could feel reasonably pleasant/Spring-like in the sunshine. (Although you may still need to wrap up, somewhat, particularly those exposed to the winds over over Western/North-Western areas and over high ground )

(Formerly DiagonalRedLine)

[Penrith Snow]

 ANYWEATHER I think it much more likely that I will be able to Ski in Scotland than sun bath on  the south coast over Easter but I suppose you never know

[Methuselah]

Do I spy some nascent plume-readiness? I know it's a long way out, but what with summer approaching and all that. . . 

[Djdazzle]

Just seems that we have been stuck in this pattern for months. I can't remember a time when it's been as long as this.

The pattern will change at some point. And I doubt the models will pick it up at long range. But nothing settled at the moment in the models.

[Sun Chaser]

Genuinely forgot what it's like to feel the joy of a UK high building in. Another wet April might just send me insane. 

Posting these charts 15 days away on the off chance (0.00001%) that a scenario like this verifies.

[Rain All Night]

10 hours ago, Rain All Night said:

12z deterministic runs, out to Tue 26th (day 7)

Let's enjoy the brief but welcome influence from the Azores high for the next couple of days, before the  hits the fan next week.

To further illustrate @Uncertainty's post above, here is the GFS 18z run...

12z ensemble means, out to Wed 3rd (day 15)

0z deterministic runs, out to Wed 27th (day 7)

It's almost fun to watch just how much of a monster our trough might turn out to be.

0z ensemble means, out to Thu 4th (day 15)

My hopes that we will see much of an improvement in the latter half of the Easter weekend are fading.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 Penrith Snow I can't read this ... too small

[Uncertainty]

1% chance: The ec op has spotted a new signal

99% chance: every other model / ensemble

This winter has taught me what I already knew: op runs are simply single perturbations - if they fly in the face of consistent means, then they’re for the

Will the ec op be right then?
I’ll let you decide…

Edited March 20 by Uncertainty

[stodge]

Evening all

As @Uncertainty points out, 12Z ECM OP looks on its own tonight.

Once this weekend's chillier interlude passes, the negatively aligned trough comes in from the north west by Monday and by Wednesday the LP is more or less right over the top of the British Isles and the accumulated precipation numbers on the 12Z GFS OP aren't pretty with another three inches of rain for the south west by Easter Saturday. 

The "hope" is the LP fills in situ or just to the west and we get a slow improvement. Into far FI and fans of warm and dry conditions get their bit of eye candy as the jet is pushed well to the north and HP builds in - the ensembles are rolling out slowly on meteociel so I don't know if the OP is an outlier.

ECM OP pushes the LP quickly to the south and evolves a strong build of heights to the NE and a SE'ly airflow into Easter. 12Z GEM OP at T+240 has a shallow elongated trough which offers something drier for the south east but not much improvement elsewhere.

The idea of a NE'ly for Easter seems to have been discarded for now.

[Uncertainty]

 stodge interestingly the op could have been a trendsetter, the mean has strongly moved towards it:

144 current 

168 yesterday 

More of an influence from scandi and a brief easterly, rather than the negatively tilted trough and nw winds.

The mean still gets the Atlantic again eventually; it’s more of a delay. Interesting nonetheless. Perhaps the ssw / WP mjo finally starting to show its hand. Let’s see where we’re at tomorrow.

Edited March 20 by Uncertainty

[WYorksWeather]

Worth bringing in the GFS postage stamps I think for the Easter weekend. Has to be said it's not looking great. Only P28 keeps things mostly dry during the daylight hours on Easter Sunday itself. Temperature wise it doesn't look like an especially cold Easter Sunday, but it will probably be cold comfort that given all the rain.

Of course, as others have noted, we shouldn't take as gospel what the models are showing for an event that is still 10 days ahead, but at this range that's about as poor a signal as you're likely to see. Something has to give in the next few days, otherwise a notably unsettled and wet Easter is on the cards I'm afraid.

 

[andymusic]

Anybody got a used ARK - think we are gonna need it this coming couple of weeks in the UK lol (according to the models)

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 andymusic I'll start collecting the animals 2 x 2 ...

[Bats32]

My goodness, lets hope that GFS18Z is an outlier because its absolutely dreadful.

[Wold Topper]

I will not try and post all the complicated stuff, but reading between lines, no point washing the car for the next 2 weeks and my water butts will be full! *Subject to change* possibly/maybe?

[rwtwm]

 Bats32 You're not joking! A low sets up on the 26th, and just festers for 9 days. The best conditions on offer over that period are - "not too windy I guess". 

You'd struggle to draw a less pleasant run. 

[Rain All Night]

12 hours ago, Rain All Night said:

0z deterministic runs, out to Wed 27th (day 7)

It's almost fun to watch just how much of a monster our trough might turn out to be.

0z ensemble means, out to Thu 4th (day 15)

My hopes that we will see much of an improvement in the latter half of the Easter weekend are fading.

12z/18z deterministic runs, out to Wed 27th (day 7)

I tried so hard to find a friend for the ECM 12z.

12z/18z ensemble means, out to Thu 4th (day 15)

Now it's ECM, not GEFS, putting extra heights on the map.

[Alderc 2.0]

I think gfs is actually getting worse, low pressure over the Uk form the 24th March to the 5th April with by the middle of next week a 950 something low centred over the south west just spinning away for days and days throwing up a combination of little shortwaves and secondary lows. 

[daz_4]

ECM OP now back in line after last night.

[Gowon]

 Alderc 2.0 Thank god the ECM doesn't have the huge low spinning over us for days!

[Gowon]

 Wold Topper Thanks for reminding me - my butts on it's last legs