March 2024 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Summer Sun]

8.3c to the 22nd

2.6c above the 61 to 90 average
2.0c above the 61 to 90 average

[Metwatch]

Heading to the end of March now so it will be a struggle to lower the CET by much, even with a coolish airmass, the sun does have some real strength to it now. Very likely it won't be colder than February which is a bit of shame but can't do anything about that. Last few days may see a milder airmass return. Thinking the final value will be in the 7.9C - 8.2C range.

 

Modelled precip charts look to be hinting on a bit of a west |east split, but a rough guesstimate is for an extra 20-30mm, concentrated from next Weds, so EWP will likely reach and exceed 90mm.

Edited March 23 by Metwatch

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 7.6C +1.6C above average. Rainfall 65mm 107.3% of the monthly average.

[Roger J Smith]

Top 30 CET values 

listed as ties in one decimal, in order of table (using table, no way to tell if any are also tied in two decimals but if not, the order is shown (e.g. 1997 is listed 4th and 2012 as 5th etc). I placed 2024 in at 8.1 in tenth. 

1. 1957 __ 9.2

2. 1938 __ 9.1 

3. 2017 __ 8.8

4-5. 1997, 2012 __ 8.4

6-7. 1948, 1990 __ 8.3

8-9. 1961, 1750 __ 8.2

10-11. 2024, 1734 __ 8.1

12. 2022 __ 8.0

13-16. 1780, 1779, 2019, 1945 __ 7.9

17-20. 1981, 1991, 1998, 1822 __ 7.8

21-22. 1830, 2014 __ 7.7

23-24. 1994, 2002 __ 7.6

25-30. 2000, 1841, 2003, 1723, 1989, 1992 __ 7.5

_______________

EWP of 111.5 mm was 13th wettest (of 259)

 

Edited April 5 by Roger J Smith

[Derecho]

A CET of 8.1C is likely to finish the month if the EC00z control is anything to go by. The EC however tends to underestimate things a bit, even with me adding 1C to the raw maxes. 

I'll log the maxes and mins to see whether I can improve my adjustments from the raw model data. The EC raw model seems to particularly underestimate temps at Pershore College.

Anything up to 8.3C is I think possible maybe even slightly higher. Last update from me though as I turn my attention to April next.

Edited March 24 by Derecho

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 7.4C +1.4C above normal. Rainfall 67.5mm 111.4% of the monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

8.2c to the 23rd

2.5c above the 61 to 90 average
1.9c above the 61 to 90 average

[Roger J Smith]

Summer Sun, a typo crept into your daily reports, line two should read "above the 81 to 10 average" .

[damianslaw]

 Roger J Smith Interesting to see 1998 finished on 7.8 as well, the winter gone and March is following 97-98 to a tee... el nino years as well..

[WYorksWeather]

I note Roger's earlier post showing that we're looking like having the second warmest January to March period (before 1990).

One of the interesting points is that we are already averaging 6.7C through to March 23rd, for the year so far. I would expect this to rise a little more, perhaps to 6.9C.

If we were to finish at 6.9C for the year to date at the end of March, it then opens up some interesting possibilities. Here are the top few years for the January to April period:

Again, a large gap between the #1 and #2 positions, but I think a finish above 2014 for April is very plausible. 2007 will take a lot of beating though, likely requiring an April CET close to 11C.

Interesting how much higher the anomalies are in late winter and early though - we're at 2.42C so far, which if carried for a whole year would lead to a CET well above 11.5C.

Possibly slightly off topic for the monthly, but worth mentioning that an annual CET record would now only require a CET anomaly on 1961-1990 of 1.46C for the rest of the year. It's certainly not a done thing, but at this stage in the year you'd have to say it's at least a one in three chance.

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

 WYorksWeather

I agree, it is unlikely 2007 will be topped, but an April CET of 9.5C would leave 2024 in second place. (7.55C).

We have already seen 9.5C topped  7 times this century. That is most likely going to be my prediction for next month's comp.

Edited March 24 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[WYorksWeather]

 BlueSkies_do_I_see Yep, I think the Jan-April record is pretty unlikely. Of course you can never say never these days. There was a large plume of near 10C 850hPa on the 12z GFS tonight - that sort of pattern repeated a couple of times in April could get us a ridiculous CET, but you certainly wouldn't bet on it.

Back on topic with March, I think my 8.4C continues to look pretty good, especially if the last few days do go a little milder.

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

 WYorksWeather you will be within a couple of tenths for sure.

I didn't enter this competition from the beginning,  but a guess around 2C each month above the 61-90 average each month would probably place you high up the table. To increase your odds, you will have to bet late and be able to accurately predict the projected first quarter CET value and creep it higher or lower than the 2C accordingly.

Unfortunately, I think any months below 61-90 are about 1 in 20 likely to happen now.

Edited March 24 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[Roger J Smith]

Frequency of cold months since 2001

... showing a gradual decline. 

I listed all months with an overall CET ranking in colder half of data (ranks 183 coldest or colder). All other months finished in the top half of data. While this is not exactly same as below 1961-90 averages, it is probably close. 

Numbers in table are colder half ranks, in bold. Other numbers in brackets are warmer half of all data.

Ranks are strictly as shown in CET tables, tied values do not alter a straight readout of ranks recorded.

While the format displays which months are cold and which are warm, letters c and w also confirm this.

 

YEAR __ JAN _FEB _ MAR _APR _MAY _JUN _ JUL _AUG _ SEP _ OCT _ NOV_ DEC ___ YEAR

2001 ___149 c _165 w _179 c _152 c _ 50 w _165 c _ 65 w _ 55 w _172 w _ 01 w _ 56 w _118 c ___ 63 w

2002 ___ 49 w _ 09 w _ 24 w _ 55 w _116 w _176 c _180 c _ 45 w _ 71 w _163 w _ 20 w _ 76 w ___ 12 w

2003 ___110 w _162 c _ 27 w _ 34 w _ 95 w _ 29 w _ 45 w _ 06 w _ 72 w _111 c _ 29 w _145 w ___ 19 w

2004 ___ 65 w _ 82 w _ 84 w _ 46 w _ 92 w _ 69 w _ 165 c _ 16 w _ 27 w _117 w _ 50 w _ 99 w ___ 22 w

2005 ___ 23 w _166 w _ 47 w _77 w _168 w _ 31 w _ 93 w _108 w _16 w _03 w _179 w_ 173 w___ 21 w

2006 ___117 w _161 c _161 c _110 w _ 64 w _ 32 w _ 01 w _111 w _ 02 w _ 04 w _ 28 w _ 31 w ___ 04 w

2007 ___ 05 w _ 50 w _ 34 w _ 02 w _103 w _ 89 w _118 c _ 175 c _126 w _ 74 w _ 70 w _124 w ___ 13 w

2008 ___ 09 w _ 77 w _122 w _171 w _12 w _114 c _121 w _ 92 w _162 w _164 c _ 94 w _119 c ___ 57 w

2009 ___148 c _176 w _ 48 w _ 15 w _ 84 w _124 w _129 w _ 62 w _ 78 w _ 35 w _ 13 w _ 94 c ___ 38 w

2010 ___ 65 c _105 c _ 112 w _ 78 w _123 c _ 81 w _ 64 w _ 147 c _ 125 w _137 w _ 91 c _ 02 c ___104 c

2011 ___165 w _ 22 w _ 66 w _ 01 w _ 73 w _101 c _ 117 c _174 c _ 21 w _ 11 w _ 02 w _ 56 w ___ 06 w

2012 ___ 41 w _171 c _ 05 w _111 c _115 w _ 70 c _160 c _ 61 w _148 c _163 c _113 w _134 w ___ 86 w

2013 ___183 c _127 c _ 14 c _ 142 c _ 87 c _ 83 c _ 09 w _ 38 w _141 w _ 12 w _172 w _ 37 w ___104 w

2014 ___ 31 w _ 35 w _ 22 w _ 07 w _ 65 w _ 88 w _ 32 w _111 c _ 22 w _ 13 w _ 14 w _102 w ___ 03 w

2015 ___108 w _182 w_ 95 w _66 w _132 c _129 c _156 w _125 w _ 89 c _ 65 w _ 04 w _ 01 w ___ 28 w

2016 ___ 40 w _104 w _150 w _141 c _ 47 w _ 80 w _ 77 w _ 33 w _ 06 w _ 75 w _111 c _ 55 w ___ 27 w

2017 ___134 w _ 37 w _ 03 w _ 76 w _ 19 w _ 28 w _ 86 w _165 w _160 w _16 w_115 w _143 w ___09 w

2018 ___ 52 w _111 c _160 c _ 23 w _ 15 w _ 23 w _ 03 w _ 59 w _136 w _102 w _ 22 w _20 w ___ 07 w

2019 ___136 w _ 11 w _ 15 w _ 63 w _182 w _167 c _ 39 w _ 32 w _73 w _172 w_170 w _66 w ___ 26 w

2020 ___ 14 w _ 27 w _ 69 w _ 04 w _ 49 w _ 68 w _181 c _ 13 w _115 w _104 w_ 18 w _117 w ___ 05 w

2021 ___156 c _ 87 w _ 41 w _ 49 c _ 69 c _ 46 w _ 31 w _ 141 w _ 07 w _ 19 w _ 69 w _ 35 w ___ 31 w

2022 ___ 93 w _ 10 w _ 11 w _ 62 w _ 22 w _108 w _ 20 w _ 03 w _ 57 w _ 05 w _ 08 w _117 c ___ 01 w

2023 ___ 63 w _ 25 w _ 54 w _111 w _ 51 w _ 05 w _138 w _ 90 w _ 01 w _ 17 w _ 61 w _ 15 w ___ 02 w

2024 ___ 87 w _ 02 w _ 10 w (est)

(note: warm ranks Apr to Dec, and annual, currently appear one rank above in table as rank 01 w is blank --

so for example, 182w May 2019 is in row 183w (or 184c). If May 2024 is warmer, it will move to rank 183w).

Mar 2024 is given arbitrary 10 w ranking for now. 

====================

ANALYSIS: 

Frequency of colder months has dropped after a spurt around 2010 to 2013. From 2001 to 2009, the average number of these colder months was about two per year. 2010, 2012 and 2013 all had six and 2011 three to give an average of five in that period. From July 2013 to present time the total count is only 14, little more than one per year. 

It would appear that in this very recent period (mid 2013 to now), a ranking of about 90th warmest is the equilibrium, while from 2001 to 2009 it was closer to 110th warmest. If I redraw the table so that all months in range 121w to 183w join the cold (in bold type) it looks like this: 

YEAR __ JAN _FEB _ MAR _APR _MAY _JUN _ JUL _AUG _ SEP _ OCT _ NOV_ DEC ___ YEAR

2001 ___149 c _165 w _179 c _152 c _ 50 w _165 c _ 65 w _ 55 w _172 w _ 01 w _ 56 w _118 c ___ 63 w

2002 ___ 49 w _ 09 w _ 24 w _ 55 w _116 w _176 c _180 c _ 45 w _ 71 w _163 w _ 20 w _ 76 w ___ 12 w

2003 ___110 w _162 c _ 27 w _ 34 w _ 95 w _ 29 w _ 45 w _ 06 w _ 72 w _111 c _ 29 w _145 w ___ 19 w

2004 ___ 65 w _ 82 w _ 84 w _ 46 w _ 92 w _ 69 w _ 165 c _ 16 w _ 27 w _117 w _ 50 w _ 99 w ___ 22 w

2005 ___ 23 w _166 w _ 47 w _77 w _168 w _ 31 w _ 93 w _108 w _16 w _03 w _179 w_ 173 w___ 21 w

2006 ___117 w _161 c _161 c _110 w _ 64 w _ 32 w _ 01 w _111 w _ 02 w _ 04 w _ 28 w _ 31 w ___ 04 w

2007 ___ 05 w _ 50 w _ 34 w _ 02 w _103 w _ 89 w _118 c _ 175 c _126 w _ 74 w _ 70 w _124 w ___ 13 w

2008 ___ 09 w _ 77 w _122 w _171 w _12 w _114 c _121 w _ 92 w _162 w _164 c _ 94 w _119 c ___ 57 w

2009 ___148 c _176 w _ 48 w _ 15 w _ 84 w _124 w _129 w _ 62 w _ 78 w _ 35 w _ 13 w _ 94 c ___ 38 w

2010 ___ 65 c _105 c _ 112 w _ 78 w _123 c _ 81 w _ 64 w _ 147 c _ 125 w _137 w _ 91 c _ 02 c ___104 c

2011 ___165 w _ 22 w _ 66 w _ 01 w _ 73 w _101 c _ 117 c _174 c _ 21 w _ 11 w _ 02 w _ 56 w ___ 06 w

2012 ___ 41 w _171 c _ 05 w _111 c _115 w _ 70 c _160 c _ 61 w _148 c _163 c _113 w _134 w ___ 86 w

2013 ___183 c _127 c _ 14 c _ 142 c _ 87 c _ 83 c _ 09 w _ 38 w _141 w _ 12 w _172 w _ 37 w ___104 w

2014 ___ 31 w _ 35 w _ 22 w _ 07 w _ 65 w _ 88 w _ 32 w _111 c _ 22 w _ 13 w _ 14 w _102 w ___ 03 w

2015 ___108 w _182 w_ 95 w _66 w _132 c _129 c _156 w _125 w _ 89 c _ 65 w _ 04 w _ 01 w ___ 28 w

2016 ___ 40 w _104 w _150 w _141 c _ 47 w _ 80 w _ 77 w _ 33 w _ 06 w _ 75 w _111 c _ 55 w ___ 27 w

2017 ___134 w _ 37 w _ 03 w _ 76 w _ 19 w _ 28 w _ 86 w _165 w _160 w _16 w_115 w _143 w ___09 w

2018 ___ 52 w _111 c _160 c _ 23 w _ 15 w _ 23 w _ 03 w _ 59 w _136 w _102 w _ 22 w _20 w ___ 07 w

2019 ___136 w _ 11 w _ 15 w _ 63 w _182 w _167 c _ 39 w _ 32 w _73 w _172 w_170 w _66 w ___ 26 w

2020 ___ 14 w _ 27 w _ 69 w _ 04 w _ 49 w _ 68 w _181 c _ 13 w _115 w _104 w_ 18 w _117 w ___ 05 w

2021 ___156 c _ 87 w _ 41 w _ 49 c _ 69 c _ 46 w _ 31 w _ 141w _ 07 w _ 19 w _ 69 w _ 35 w ___ 31 w

2022 ___ 93 w _ 10 w _ 11 w _ 62 w _ 22 w _108 w _ 20 w _ 03 w _ 57 w _ 05 w _ 08 w _117 c ___ 01 w

2023 ___ 63 w _ 25 w _ 54 w _111 w _ 51 w _ 05 w _138 w _ 90 w _ 01 w _ 17 w _ 61 w _ 15 w ___ 02 w

2024 ___ 87 w _ 02 w _ 10 w (est) 

 

(the frequency then increases to four per year 2001-09, 6.75 for 2010-13,  and close to three per year since 2014. )

 

 

[Summer Sun]

8.2c to the 24th

2.5c above the 61 to 90 average
1.9c above the 61 to 90 average

[Roger J Smith]

Again, that should read 1.9 above the 1981 to 2010 average

note it would also be 1.7 above the 1991 to 2020 average

[Metwatch]

46 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

note it would also be 1.7 above the 1991 to 2020 average

Anomaly of 1.5 if the month finishes at 8.2C. I think it will be an 8.0C or higher finish now. A very average outlook this week, so not much of a decline or rise expected. Just hoping the EWP doesn't rise too much but 90mm still looking to be breached.

[Roger J Smith]

Yes, for EWP I would say we are around 74-75 mm as of 12z today (it was 67.8 after Saturday 23rd), and 12z GFS suggests about 20 mm grid average, possibly up to 25 mm, as southwest will be much wetter (50+) than most of grid. So it will likely be close to 100 mm by end of month.

Scoring was adjusted a while ago (using 106 mm), but any outcome of 100-106 mm would have almost no impact on scoring. Virtualsphere would win month (104 mm) for any outcome 99.6 mm to 107 mm and in any case would score more than B87 at 110 mm who has a 2d late penalty (equivalent to three scoring intervals). Polar Gael at 95.1 mm is the second most likely to get top score. Only DR(S)NO at 129 mm could potentially see significant changes, the adjustment from 90 to 106 gave DR(S)NO about six points (taking 0.2 away from about 30 scores passed as a result), so going back down into range of 95-100 would claw back about 2-3 points giving 0.2 apiece to current ranked 22-35 range. DR(S)NO would need an outcome of 112.2 mm to pass another seventeen ranked scores (up to and including Polar Gael), and would then gain another 3 to 3.5 points at their expense. DR(S)NO needs 116.6 mm to pass virtualsphere, and would then have high score but needs 119.6 mm to be at first scoring level ahead of late-penalized B87. 

The latest GFS guidance for temps (and today's known values) would suggest a slight drop (average of 7.5 now to end including today) to 8.0 or 8.1. 

 

[Don]

1 hour ago, Roger J Smith said:

The latest GFS guidance for temps (and today's known values) would suggest a slight drop (average of 7.5 now to end including today) to 8.0 or 8.1

Or 7.9 even?! 

[Scorcher]

Today is definitely warmer than forecast across the CET zone- something to bear in mind. Quite a bit more brightness than expected across much of England.

[Summer Sun]

8.1c to the 25th

2.5c above the 61 to 90 average
1.7c above the 61 to 90 average

[Don]

 Scorcher Yet another well above average month!

 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 7.4C +1.3C above normal. Rainfall 70.2mm 115.8% of the monthly average.

Edited March 26 by The PIT

[damianslaw]

 Don Becoming the norm, months even just 1 degree above 61-90 are becoming rarer it seems. 

[Don]

 damianslaw I know and yet people still say how cold it is!  How would they cope if we went back to the climate of just 40 years ago?!