PolarWarsaw

So far this season we've had. - 2 northerly atttemps - 2 topplers originally shown to be something 'more' at around the 7-8 day period by the models - They are actually going to turn out as 2 'blink and you miss it' 24 hour events. - It's not been mild, or remotely zonal for at least 3 weeks now. - 2 attempts, 2 fails. - Attempt number 3 - - > An Easterly modelled at around day 10-11. Easterlies, december and the ECM....Hmmm... I'll be back when it's at t-24.

It didn't ever come inside t100 - thus it's not a downgrade it's just a pattern that's lost it's way. The word downgrade is commonly over-used in the wrong context. If there's anything anyone has learnt is that in winter, unless it comes within t72 it's not guaranteed.

if it's still there by Tuesday Evening and Wednesday afternoon I'll be pleased. Until then it's just the ECM dangling a carrot. It's almost 1 year to the day of 'THAT ECM'. Rinse and repeat this year. The models will get us into this position 10 times this season and 1 or 2 may come off if we are lucky. Not to be glum, but the fallout and word 'downgrade' is used so much at the wrong time on weather forums that it winds me up.

But that's all it is 'potential' and it's at t200 hours and always has been? I don't see why people get enthralled by synoptics at that distance when frankly it could be the direct and exact opposite when that time period comes to fruition.

I'm not sure it is. This is why you shouldn't take 1 days worth of runs at t200 as gospel. We haven't been lead up the path, it was just a small trend that had started to be picked up well into FI. I honestly can't for the life of me see why people get excited over things 10 days or so down the line and then wonder why they dissapear a run later. I for one, am not going to be dissapointed if the ECM is a bust later, because frankly we could be in raging zonality or under a supersonic Easterly by this time next week and the chances of the models getting it bang on at this stage (or even remotely synoptically close at all) is small. Models are ran by computers, they don't run the weather.

Yep...and some people like this weather.

Some better charts to dicsuss in the last 48 hours from a coldies perspective, I don't see a great deal to look forward to in terms of longevity though and how many times have been up the garden path with charts at t200? You can guarantee in the next couple of days we will see charts of similar or better ilk only for a shortwave or the iffy background signals to come to fruition and demolish the cold snap - which it is at the moment a progged cold snap. Great for trend watching today though and something coldies such as myself come to reality. I don't see anything other than a northerly for 24-48 hours at this juncture though.

This weather is so boring.

No problem. We used to be able to go to www.weather.com which is a US weather website that had daily forecasts for the US, all tornado and severe weather updates. It's the website for 'The Weather Channel' which plays a constant loop in the US. All of a sudden a couple of months back it dissapeared and a UK version of the website took over.

Can I ask why it's no longer available to check the US side of things on weather.com? We used to have direct access to videos, warnings - you could check the forecast for anywhere in the US and it was great for the Tornado sesdon - what's happened?

Thank god the Ashes is on! The next 2 weeks in weather terms look about as interesting as a David Dickinson/Geoffrey Boycott stand up comedy show.

I think I'd happily take a breakdown from the west so we can reset a couple of weeks down the line at this point. I like cold, but snow - not dry weather, frost and endless days of repetitive conditions. I fear if we get stuck in 2 weeks of anti-cyclonic that by the time the pattern does breakdown we may then have to suffer a couple of weeks of zonality before we can reset and look for something cooler - let's hope not - that's 3-4 weeks out of the window (not saying that's what will happen before I get cries of - writing 1 month off). Let's get this high pressure block removed and ASAP, even if we require a week of rain that's fine by me - we can look potentially towards a seasonal festive period.

So then, another downbeat day of model viewing. High pressure/anti-cyclonic weather is fine for a day or 2, but anymore than that and you really head into 'this is boring' - the fact that the weather looks likely to stay the same for 7-10 days minimum fills with me about the same level of 'meh' as raging zonality. I don't particularly enjoy freezing weather, I prefer snowy weather and on that basis - as far as I'm concerned give me gales and rainstorms in place of dry, frosty but boring. This is the weather, it needs to be interesting.

There's only one word to describe the next 7-10 days if tonight's outcome come to fruition and that's...........YAWN.

I can't help but feel anything other than a frosty but ultimately dry and quiet period is coming up before a return to something at least 'a little' wetter occurs. Whenever a model picks up a trend, the other seem to just veer in the opposite direction from it - that's both from a cold and milder solution point of view as well. I think it was SK who pointed out that his overall keyword for this winter season was 'patience' and I can't help but feel that's what is going to be required. I am absolutely not writing anything off or putting eggs in baskets, but I do feel kind of 'immune' to the next couple of weeks being anything but chilly and dry.

I wholeheartedly agree, I'm just urging on the edge of caution. I'd say there's a good 10 times per winter where cold and snowy synoptics initiate at around t200+ and then appear quite consistent, but just as we start to firm up and bring them into a slightly more reliable timeframe - they get scuppered and we come out on the other side having been 'carrot dangled'. The background signals are more consisntently positive towards colder weather/high pressure at the moment - but 1 ECM run at 200+ hours odd really shouldn't be read into as much as it is IMO. (That's coming from someone who wants anything cold to come to fruition as well).

My only concern is that we are back to 'BOOM' from the ECM at t168 onwards again....precisely where we were last last Wednesday/Thursday for what will now be his weeks 'cold snap'. I can't help but feel that we may again be lead up the same path, with everything noticeably good or 'boom worthy' at 10 days+, I hope I'm wrong though as tonight's ECM is a very good run for those that appreciate cold, frosty and predominantly dry. Snow fans....hmmm.

Very long sausages earlier...now a dose of 6 inches! Christ, it's been a strange day..

I didn't think the day would come where I searched the internet for.....very long sausages! So then - The 12z overall. GFS - Very good, probably too good and unrealistically so. Cold and snowy, most of the way through. UKMO - Probably the weakest of the models if it's cold you after this evening. The cold never really 'gets in' ECM - Steady as she goes, probably a middle ground between the two of the above. I'd say right now - we are looking at a colder week next week, with a cold peak Tuesday/Wednesday. Potentially some snow around, but how much and whether it's down to low levels aren't defined at this stage. Colder uppers mixed out from Wednesday as things stay chilly at the surface but predominantly wet and not white. All eyes to a potential reload at that point heading into the week after!

We will have to wait and see the ECM - but it appears this mornings UKMO/ECM are potentially onto a less severe snap than the GFS and that potentially the GFS is a little behind again. A big ECM 12z, but let's not forget this was only supposed to be a 'cold spell' - nothing prolonged, severe or particularly snow bearing. Just to keep that in mind and temper member expectations a little.

I agree. At this stage I tend to think that the ECM/UKMO are the models we should be following, but glancing a cautionary eye over the GFS updates. I think we can safely say that 'nothing is nailed' and any talk of snow in X place is jumping far ahead of the gun at the moment. From a coldies perspective we need to look at the ECM coming back on board to it's theme last evening 12z. I think one thing we can safely say is - it's going be generally colder countrywide for a period next week. How cold? Chance of snow? How long will it last? - all questions to be answered in the coming 72 hours or so.

Afternoon guys, Just popping in to say - I'm back for the winter ride here in the Midlands thread! Looking forward to another winter of prozac and last minute shields. How is everyone? Next week looks decent for the time of year - I fancy some chilly days and hopefully some nice frosts, snow? I doubt it here, but if we can keep the cold who knows.

The 12z is recognised as the best, but you can split hairs over that and the 0z. The 06z is frequently about as reliable as a minutes silence from David Dickinson.

There might not be any direct or potent cold weather to affect our shores in tonight's charts, but I think overall things are looking very positive for something colder towards the end of the month. The vortex splitting in the later frames of this evenings 12z ECM, the NH pattern and news of a -NAO perhaps taking shape. All in all, the building blocks to winter are just through the foundations stage....on to the bottom floor next!

Seems we are in the perfect gap to miss all showers for most of the afternoon. Should get away with a decent day.