The only reason I was being so bullish about the GFS kicking the NAE's a$$ is because, I have seen the NAE get these milder air hitting colder air scenario's wrong quite a few times before. It underestimates the mild sector, like last night for instance, it showed -2 dew points over the whole of the East Midlands by midnight till 6am. I'll put all the money I have on the dew point being nowhere near -2 by midnight.