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Everything posted by Seasonality
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Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
Seasonality replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Thank you @MattHugo. You are a gentleman and a scholar. So fear not model watchers! Looks like we are seeing developments well outside the publicly viewable current ECM output and right on the cusp of GFS output so interesting times ahead. -
Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
Seasonality replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Well said! -
Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
Seasonality replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Lovely cool bright weather and people are still bitching and moaning. You'd need to have a climate like Oymyakon to keep some people happy in here. -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
Seasonality replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
But not the same depth of cold to the east on the 12z. -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
Seasonality replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
@knocker is definitely someone I pay attention to when it comes to model analysis, even if he is a bit cheeky at times, all in good fun. -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
Seasonality replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Well yes @knocker but I was referring to the 384h for 14 Dec chart in isolation, not the average of the preceding six days. That is very naughty of you. As you can see, very chilly through Western Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, Baltics etc into Eastern Poland for the period I was referring to. I shall have to steal Sidney's nuts if you continue to carry on so. Maybe we should agree on a working definition of deep cold? -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
Seasonality replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Which is here https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2016/11/28/winter-outlook-for-december-2016-to-february-2017/ Good read too. -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
Seasonality replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I would have to agree. This was illustrated well by the 00z GFS ensembles for Warsaw where the op was a cold outlier in terms of surface temps against the suite with clear divergence from around 8 December. It will be interesting looking at the ensembles for European capitals from the 06z to analyse the likelihood of the cold marching east. As it stands, the current run shows deep cold over Eastern and Central Europe out in the la la land reaches of FI. -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
Seasonality replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
You want to be careful not to jinx it with a username like yours -
Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
Seasonality replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
Seasonality replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
Seasonality replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
Seasonality replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
So you're Ian Brown then? The modern winter? -
Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
Seasonality replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Pot. Kettle. -
Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
Seasonality replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
Seasonality replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Sydney should be a red squirrel. Not an American import. -
Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
Seasonality replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Lol. Chasing FI again o_O Meanwhile in Poland. Snow as soon as Sunday night and then through next week. Not to mention the bit earlier in November. -
Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
Seasonality replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
Seasonality replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Flat as a witch's tit? -
Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
Seasonality replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I see what you did there! (lose) -
Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
Seasonality replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Mild winter for a change? Where the hell have you been for the last few years? Not the UK I take it. -
Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
Seasonality replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
Seasonality replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Ha ha. You mean wailing. This is whaling. The atrocious spelling and grammar are part of the entertainment on the model thread. -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
Seasonality replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Luckily there are a good three months left for it -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
Seasonality replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
What is it that you want/expect? A horrendous situation like last December? Or terrible flooding?