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Everything posted by Supacell
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Storms and Convective discussion - 20th March 2023 onwards
Supacell replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
It's taken a while to edit as there was a lot of driving in "nothingness" to edit out and also been busy with work commitments since the chase. But here is my video from my storm chase on Tuesday 9th May. Chasing pulse storms is difficult but I'm happy with this month so far from a storm perspective. I am hoping for some good thundery plumes or at least more organised thunderstorms as we get more into summer. -
Storms and Convective discussion - 20th March 2023 onwards
Supacell replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Attempted a chase today into north Notts and then Lincs. Plenty of heavy showers and photogenic skies but no thunder or lightning today. If I had been about 40ish miles east towards the east coast I would have probably had a treat, but I didn't get that far. 2 successes and 1 bust so far in 2023. I can't win them all. Back home now, going to start editing yesterday's footage. -
Storms and Convective discussion - 20th March 2023 onwards
Supacell replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
My windscreen was fine . The floodwaters were my biggest concern to be honest. Still uncertain whether to chase today. It doesn't look as good as yesterday. I won't be doing any long distances but may be worth me taking a trip out if something develops locally. -
Storms and Convective discussion - 20th March 2023 onwards
Supacell replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
If i remember from previous reading i have done. A positive lightning strike sounds like a sudden explosion rather than a long rumble. To look at, a positive bolt looks smoother as it is composed of just one stroke, whereas a negative strike has multiple strokes. -
Storms and Convective discussion - 20th March 2023 onwards
Supacell replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
A busy chase day yesterday with LOTS of pulse storms to deal with. Again, it was at times frustrating to reach a cell just for it to pulse out. On the plus side, reaching the cells was not difficult as they weren't moving fast. Most of the storms I witnessed were from a slight distance away and so offered me cloud structures, distant CG lightning and thunder. A lot of heavy rain with lots of feint intra cloud lightning and then a sudden bigger flash and big boom. The highlight was as a storm actually broke out just a couple of miles to my north and so I was able to get into it and drive through an impressive hail core. I'd say the hail was about 1 inch in diameter and it was coming down fast enough to turn the roads icy. I cannot remember exactly where it was as I covered a lot of miles yesterday and my ageing brain isn't great at remembering details. I'll know when I edit the footage. Another thing there was a lot of was flooding. These storms were dropping a lot of water. Ended up travelling all the way from my starting point near to Nuneaton down into Hertfordshire. But by then the main storm activity was becoming further and further southeast and so I headed back home again. Not bad at all to have done two decent storm chases by the 10th May, with the possibility of a third chase today (depending on latest forecasts etc). Makes up for the lack of any real warmth so far this spring. Edit: Hailstorm was just southwest of Desborough, Northamptonshire. -
Storms and Convective discussion - 20th March 2023 onwards
Supacell replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Currently between Ashby and Atherstone eyeing up the cells to my west on radar. Was on route to further south but made the decision to stop and see if these could deliver. -
Storms and Convective discussion - 20th March 2023 onwards
Supacell replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
I am planning on chasing tomorrow if it still looks good in the morning -
Storms and Convective discussion - 20th March 2023 onwards
Supacell replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Thanks Arnie. Haha, the good old red telephone box. There are still a few round here, they are being used as mini libraries. No UK storm chase is complete without one -
Storms and Convective discussion - 20th March 2023 onwards
Supacell replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Here is the video from yesterday's storm chase. -
Storms and Convective discussion - 20th March 2023 onwards
Supacell replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
It has been a good day for widespread storms, although the pulsing nature of them was frustrating at times. The storm in that photo died out before it reached me. Still a good day though and did get under a pretty nasty storm earlier in the afternoon between Howden and Pocklington with some hail and CG lightning. -
Storms and Convective discussion - 20th March 2023 onwards
Supacell replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
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Storms and Convective discussion - 20th March 2023 onwards
Supacell replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
@Eagle Eye Thanks. Already committed to the storms that will hopefully develop further north now though. Currently near to Snaith and looking south it appears clouds are building. Arome is showing some intense precipitation around here from around mid afternoon. Going to have a picnic in the sun and then see how it looks. -
Storms and Convective discussion - 20th March 2023 onwards
Supacell replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
I'm in Doncaster now, thanks for this. -
Storms and Convective discussion - 20th March 2023 onwards
Supacell replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Ok thank you. I've been chasing for years but have very limited meteorological knowledge. I tend to rely on others for that part -
Storms and Convective discussion - 20th March 2023 onwards
Supacell replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Maybe somewhere to the north of the Humber would be better then? -
Storms and Convective discussion - 20th March 2023 onwards
Supacell replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Although storms could occur pretty much anywhere I am planning to head northeast, probably settling somewhere in North Lincolnshire area. Fingers crossed it pays off. -
Storms and Convective discussion - 20th March 2023 onwards
Supacell replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
I am keeping my eye on tomorrow for widespread storms, probably the most widespread we have seen so far this year. Even today the odd flash and rumble cannot be ruled out, more especially across southern and southwestern areas today and then maybe the south coast overnight. However, I am not seeing a huge risk with CAPE not overly high. Tomorrow looks to be a classic May day of heavy showers and thunderstorms developing inland in response to daytime heating. Cold air aloft across England and Wales especially, along with strong May sunshine should help to bolster CAPE values up to around 1000 j/kg, building north-eastwards through the day and eventually away to the east through the evening. Shear is fairly weak and so pulse type storms are most likely but these could tend to congregate along convergence zones. They will also be slow moving and so flooding could become an issue. It is too early for specifics as to where the greatest likelihood of storms will be but my current thinking is the main risk will shift north and east with time, meaning that by later in the day the showers may lose some intensity in the southwest, whilst they become more intense to the north and east. There appears to be reasonable agreement on a good thunder risk tomorrow and so I will be out chasing. -
Storms and Convective discussion - 20th March 2023 onwards
Supacell replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
I am quite close to the risk area today and so, although the risk is low, I am prepared to get out for the first time this year. It is a low probability that I'll actually chase but if I do I'll be heading towards the Peak District on the Staffordshire/Cheshire/Derbyshire border for about mid/late afternoon time. There are some good views to the west from that part of the world. Very uncertain outlook today but the sunny start should help. This is the sky here. -
Speaking of bog roll. I forgot it was going to go off and nearly had a toilet accident
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Storms and Convective discussion - 20th March 2023 onwards
Supacell replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Yes, one rumble of thunder along with a bit of hail. First thunder of the year. Not able to chase today though, but then moving a but quick to chase anyway. -
Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards
Supacell replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
New thread here https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98550-storms-and-convective-discussion-20th-march-2023-onwards/ -
I was planning on waiting until April 1st to open a new thread as this is when I tend to become interested in all things convective again. However, considering there has already been some convective interest over the last few days and indeed more to come during the week ahead, I have brought forward those plans. It is a joy to be seeing decent opportunities ahead for thunderstorm risks as early as March. Welcome back all fellow storm fans. So here we go. Old thread below. https://community.netweather.tv/topic/97528-storms-and-convective-discussion-1st-august-2022-onwards/ And as for these opportunities. Well the forecasts on TV are already mentioning "thundery" in the forecasts for tomorrow, but my interest is further ahead with GFS, NMM and UKV all showing interest for Thursday onwards especially as an area of low pressure parks itself close by and generates lots of showers, some of which are likely to be thundery with hail. We are not talking intense summer heat and plumes of course, but some nice springlike thunderstorms with good convective skies and rainbows. Admittedly I am more about chasing than forecasting, I sometimes try to forecast but I am best leaving that to the experts. I can though, see the opportunity. If I capture a thunderstorm within the next week, it will be the first time I have ever captured a thunderstorm in March and 2023 will be my 20th year of storm chasing. MUCAPE charts from Thursday to Sunday from the NMM
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Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards
Supacell replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Locking this thread shortly and opening a new thread (a little late I know) for the new 2023 season. -
Model Output Discussion - Snow Watch limited edition
Supacell replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
In many years i see March as being the month where snow is most likely to fall. Its just not the month where snow is most likely to stick.- 736 replies
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