damianslaw
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Winter 2022-23 early thoughts - general chat
damianslaw replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
North atlantic SSTs remain very warm throughout.. we don't have cold SSTs near Greenland, lets see if this is maintained, whilst the warmth is likely to generate stronger storm systems you would think, conversely the temp gradient between north and mid atlantic is weaker, this factor probably means weakened jet... and propensity for stronger heights. -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
damianslaw replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Just watched GFS 12z timeframe, any attempt to pull in polar air thwarted throughout... its been the theme of 2022, low pressure to the SW and heights to the east.. its persistance is remarkable combined with a sluggish jetstream. -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
damianslaw replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Current pattern is a classic west based negative NAO, low pressure to the SW, high pressure further north and north west but crucially to the SE as well. End product very mild southerly source, a lesson Negative nao doesnt necessarily equate to cold in the colder half of the year, in the summer often means very warm. We saw this set up in early Sept. It is an interesting pattern though, not your normal October fayre. -
Winter 2022-23 early thoughts - general chat
damianslaw replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Unless its a Dec 2009 set up, we had thundery snow from a SW flow off Irish Sea, the flow was arctic but took a long sea passage around a low pressure. Excellent snowy synoptic 20-21 Dec 09! -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
damianslaw replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
GFS most progressive of the models this morning, reverting to type.. ECM least, UKMO in the middle. Often the case.. GFS shunts the trough east by the end of the week, ECM keeps the low to the SW going nowhere... End results, colder from GFS, staying mild with ECM. Long term GFS shows kind of evolution tied to la Nina Nov composites, high pressure out west and a chilly northerly/ north westerly flow. Models have been caught out by tye positioning of the jet in recent days, only until very recently has a warm southerly source with low to the SW been forecast. 2022 continues to not follow the script. -
Winter 2022-23 early thoughts - general chat
damianslaw replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Depends, much of winter 09-10 was northerly sourced and there was widespread snow often. If you have heights to the NW, low pressure and frontal features can attack from all directions, giving snow from all directions. The straight sourced northerly though is often shortlived associated with low pressure moving into scandi and mid atlantic heights, sometimes troughs are embedded and can last a couple of days, other times its a 24 hr toppler. The key is robust heights to our NW linking in with heights over the Pole as happened in winter 09-10 and Dec 10.. -
Autumn 2022 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
damianslaw replied to Seasonal Trim's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Thinking the warm atlantic SSTs are injecting quite a bit of heat into the atmosphere intensifying the rain despite lack of marked temp contrasts on marked frontal features or low pressure. All feels more summer like rain... than autumn, still October is a very wet month here. -
October 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests
damianslaw replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Where are we rainfall wise? Looking a wet month for many.. Last week of the month all to play for still, it did look like things would cool down markedly, by next weekend, but now the models are showing a relatively mild period holding out.. but we are seeing quite marked daily variations, so a cold end could still materialise. -
UK Mountain Snowfall Season 2022-23
damianslaw replied to damianslaw's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Good to see, I was in the Cairngorms late Oct 2019 and there was plenty of snow above the sane height. Its not normally until mid Nov we see snow sticking on our highest tops. -
Winter 2022-23 early thoughts - general chat
damianslaw replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Just seen some comparisons of the Met October forecasts for N-J period and the only three since 2009 that it showed northerly heights were 2009, 2010, 2012... mmm, 2009 took to December though for heights to take control, 2010, spot on, 2012 yo yo heights in Dec- Jan, but was correct with less atlantic influence. It performed very well I would say! -
Autumn 2022 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
damianslaw replied to Seasonal Trim's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Its been a very westerly/south westerly month so far, which favours eastern parts sunshine wise. -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
damianslaw replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
On the contrary the way the atlantic is behaving would I think increase chance of cold weather, just a case of where the high pressure sets up. In January it sat in the wrong place for cold, but had it nudged a bit east... apologise this would be better in the winter thread. -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
damianslaw replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Jetstream forecast is a ragged one, normally at this time of year we would expect low pressure to move west to east. alas models showing a cut off low to our SW going nowhere, seems stuck in a washing machine. We saw very similiar synoptics early Sept, indeed its been a common theme this year, with heights to our east sucking in warm southerly air. Longer term still the indication something colder will manifest, but again the theme for 2022 seems that no cold is allowed. Its been an odd year with the atlantic out of oomph. -
Have you turned your heating on yet?
damianslaw replied to stewfox's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
I've said before, all homes are different in terms of the extent to which they retain heat, also the type of energy source you have. Location is key as well. Personal circumstance also a factor. Those saying can keep it off a long time are very fortunate indeed. -
Autumn 2022 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
damianslaw replied to Seasonal Trim's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
In that transitional period between early autumn and deep Autumn. Deep Autumn I describe as period roughly 20 Oct to mid November, when we see rapid change in the feel of things, first air frosts likely for many, first cold feeling days, leaves peak in colour and break off quickly, light loss is signficant with clocks going back, sun loses all strength. By mid Nov, the late autumn feeling sets in.. and preparation for winter and christmas takes over. I find late October/ early Nov the most evocative time of the year, senses come alive. This is the last weekend of the year before that marked change in physche to one where the 'winter' head sets in, and usually the last one before you ditch the summer clothes/ light jacket attire. This is from a northern and Lakeland perspective. -
First ground and air frost watch 2022-23 season
damianslaw replied to damianslaw's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Suspect that is the current low minima for the new season. I'll be posting my minima temp thread before end of October. -
Winter 2022-23 early thoughts - general chat
damianslaw replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
2009-10 stands out clearly with persistant negative NAO. -
A day of showers today, current temp 10.2 degrees. A word on max temps forecast, at this time of year we have to remember these may only occur for an hour or two around 1-3pm mark, for example a forecast high of 13 degrees may only be achieved for an hour between 2 and 3pm.. The day may go like this. 8am 8 degrees 9am- 12pm climb to 10 degrees 12-1pm up to 11 or 12 1-2pm up to 13 2-3pm 13 3-4pm down to 12 4-5pm down to 11 5-6pm down to 10 6-12am down to 9 12am to 8am hover between 8 and 9 A good portion of the day fails to go above 10 degrees. This is how a westerly typical Oct day goes. High pressure days sees much more marked rise in morning and fall in evening..
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Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
damianslaw replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
As mentioned GFS and ECM push the low pressure to our SW through by this time next week and we then see colder conditions with the UK residing on the cold side of the polar front jet. GFS interesting output, northerly flow eventually after cold cyclonic and showery conditions. -
Autumn 2022 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
damianslaw replied to Seasonal Trim's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Mmm November can be very cold, 2010 for example, but overall not easy to achieve. I agree October probably month when extremes temp occur least. Autumn by far most uninteresting season if you like extremes. -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
damianslaw replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
ECM chalk and cheese, previous run showed low pressure overhead 23rd, now it has high pressure, as said reliable timeframe short at present. -
October 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests
damianslaw replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
A mild outlook will prevent the CET dropping much further in the week ahead, perhaps a slight drop over the weekend, then a slight rise even, normally Oct delivers a flatline drop through the month. Latter part of tye month looking cool though and there could be a marked drop from next weekend on, but unlikely to be enough to enable a below average month, but more akin to September, close to average still within realms of possibility, late Oct can deliver quite cold CET values easily when under clear skies, sun is weak by then.