johnholmes

Dry, cloudy and fairly breezy after slight rain overnight. Very mild again, 9C higher than the lowest on Saturday morning; low of 14.2C. This is higher than the average low in any summer month. It sure will be a shock to the system when the cold air gets in!

NOAA has joined ECMWF-GFS 500mb anomaly charts with, see below, a noticeable ridge for the Greenland area and an equally noticeable trough east of the UK. It is only one output but it is rare for these 3 to be very similar and the pattern they are predicting not to occur. So nextweekend and possibly 3-5 days it would seem for a colder upper flow into the UK. Beyond that and a more westerly looks like being the pattern. That is based on the past 24 hours but it may change. As to how cold, when/where any snow then obviously that comes several days from now with the synoptic models. CAUTION:- Do be aware that predicting anything falling from the sky is very difficult even 12 hours ahead, snow and you need to add about 6 possibly 8 more variables into the mix, obviously one of these is your height above sea level. http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

what? Try the front page, watch the regular updates by TV forecasters, go to the Met O web site. What more do you want. Even in the highly charged model thread, forever searching for cold there are charts and comments from folk about the amounts of rain predicted.

Picking up on the last sentence from phil UK Met warning for designated areas, part of their text I am not 100% sure but this amount of rain must be a very rare event even for the areas mentioned? 250 mm is 10 INCHES of rain! This flow is expected to bring a period of heavy and persistent rain, with 50-100 mm of rain falling in many areas. However, as much as 200 to 250 mm may fall across some of the most exposed high ground.

yes the updated 0130 issue has no wording such as greenland suggests. Time again will tell whether the supposed quote is correct or made up!

Quite a change on the ECMWF-GFS 500mb anomaly charts this morning and not like the NOAA outputs last evening either. Too early to be confident for cold lovers but they certainly show what they want, see link below. These two, over the past couple of years have on a few occasions been the first to show a pattern change that turned out to be correct. However I would urge caution until they show continuity over at least 2-3 days and that the NOAA outputs also show similar.Nothing on the GFS MJO output suggests that the 500mb pattern is anything other than a short affair IF at all yet. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html the output from NAEFS also supports the above charts http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/naefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&map=1&runpara= We will all know by this time next week if the above chart predictions were correct!

Dry but cloudy, a few patches of Sc but much of it is upper layers, a low of 5.3C

10.0C at 1430 now 5.9C after several showers blown through; Td=3.9C, some change over the past couple of days with a max of 18.8C on Tuesday!

re this There is at least at this time however no indicated support for any sustained collapse of the strong Nino till at least later in the winter The latest official update link is below http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/index.shtml

Very little cloud after slight rain overnight, a low so far of 6.9C with Td 2.9C. That is the lowest value of Td in a very long time.

Dry, no cloud, a low of 6.9C

blimey Paul I doubt any of us will READ that thoroughly. I confess to a quick skim and arrive at your conclusions, re marginally useful for Europe for temperatures.

Fairly cloudy and rather breezy with a low of 13.2C so far

Well today is my highest November max since I started 01/01/1997 at 18.8C and the highest in the RAF Finningley data 1943-1995 was 18.5C on 4/11/71, so perhaps the highest in many decades for this area unless someone in this area has a higher max today. Obviously a possibility. Not sure about the minimum value as not had chance to check yet.

Well today is my highest November max since I started 01/01/1997 at 18.8C and the highest in the RAF Finningley data 1943-1995 was 18.5C on 4/11/71, so perhaps the highest in many decades for this area unless someone in this area has a higher max today. Obviously a possibility. Not sure about the minimum value as not had chance to check yet.

18.7C here just now, must look and see what my record is for November, more like late April or even some summer days, breezy but lots of warm sunshine

To me it seems the overall pattern for a couple of weeks is an unsettled westerly over the Atlantic and into Europe. So a mix of Tm and Pm air for most with the Pm air most noticeable and most frequent for more northern parts. If you like a nw-n/se-s split. Possibly some pretty deep lows passing between Iceland and Scotland at times so windy as well in association with them.

dry, breezy with areas of Sc cloud and a ridiculous temperature for this time in November, currently 15.8C and the 'low' is 15.8C! This is almost 3C above the average Min for the summer months!

before too many show 'like' for this post it is NOT anywhere a done deal yet, and I only suggested hours NOT days IF it does happen, and not a major pattern change!

Obviously the weather has not yet read that the month has changed,14.4C max which is about what is supposed to be the afternoon value a month ago. It sure will be a shock to plants and ourselves when we do get a bit below normal!

There are differences between the ECMWF-GFS upper pattern and that of NOAA. This in the ne Canada/Greenland area and further north. It is unclear just yet which pattern will be nearer the mark. It is not often that NOAA is wrong in these pattern changes but we have to wait and see. links below http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Wonderful orange sunrise through areas of Sc, dry and a low of 6.5C

don't apologise Paddy, we all have to learn and folk on here will be willing to help you. start with the most simple and gradually work up. Both with observing data and learning how to read the models. Try the Net Wx Guides for help with the models but don't leave. It's a fascinating hobby and almost all on here are 'weather nuts' regards John

The anomaly charts still show a generally westerly 500mb flow out to day 14/15 and perhaps beyond. The 'kink' that ECMWF-GFS showed in the flow yesterday has gone this morning. NOAA has so far not suggested that option. The only possible glimpse of this is the smallish +ve heights shown NE Canada-western Greenland. Nothing substantial enough to really excite any cold watcher. links below http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php for slightly further ahead the MJO (GFS version) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml actual and predict show nothing more than 1-3. link to probable 500mb pattern for November for those below http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html

fairly cloudy, mostly high level Sc and a low of 5.9C