Storms and Convective discussion - May 2024

[TewksCells]

Witnessed my first thunderstorm of the year yesterday, as one exploded over Cheltenham, after chasing the storm over Worcester earlier and losing hope after it died off. Great start! 

[Super_Uwe]

Quite convective skies down nr Kingsbridge. 

Nothing happening though

[Cain]

Some clouds bubbling up but doubt it will come to anIMG_6101.dngything 

[ChannelThunder]

Of course the models show a plume event on Sunday night, the one night I'm away in London for a gig! Very predictable!

[Ben Sainsbury]

 Super_Uwe Same here in Bristol too, pretty cool to look at at least!

[Justin1705]

Some struggling convection but nice to see. Summer is on the way. And Monday looks to be a breakdown  too far out yet ! Let’s enjoy the sun and warm before then? 

[Cain]

Showers trying hard but just dying 

[ChannelThunder]

A subtle shift in the models for Sunday has brought in a deeper and faster low to the west or southwest of Ireland, shoving the potential plume event further to the east and earlier on Sunday than originally shown. Still some shuffling about to come on the models I suspect before it's resolved 

[Sprites]

 ChannelThunder  Shania Twain is coming again in September 

[ChannelThunder]

 Sprites not sure I get it, sorry! Did I make a reference unbeknownst? 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

 ChannelThunder I was just looking to Sunday on Ventusky - central south getting a plume-type import by the looks of things but this will look completely different nearer the time I’m sure

[Wade]

Met office have got a thunderstorm symbol for my location on Monday, same day I am getting my first tattoo. 

[Sprites]

 ChannelThunder  

Channel Thunder 

 Of course the models show a plume event on Sunday night, the one night I'm away in London for a gig! Very predictable!

 

 

[ChannelThunder]

 Sprites ah, makes sense now

[Thunders]

I thought there was a risk for storms after the low comes through and bumps into the warmth

[Metwatch]

Well gotta celebrate the one year anniversary of this today, still remember it clear as day. I've attached the slow-mo for the first time to see the CG's in detail.

Edited May 9 by Metwatch

[Justin1705]

 Metwatch fancy walking in a field in a thunderstorm lol brave man especially with it that close. Suprised your hair wasn’t up on end great capture tho well done

[Scuba steve]

 Justin1705 been caught out twice ,once on catbells in the lakes and Goosenecks state park the later was partially sketchy

[A Face like Thunder]

Sunday is looking interesting for storm lovers, particularly in the SW of England and then later further North and West, at least that's what the BBC are hinting tonight.

[Rush2019]

Yes, going to be a good day storm, sky and radar watching.  European storms outlook for 3pm Sunday.

[Frosty hollows]

MetO warning out for Thunderstorms Sunday for my area

[Dangerous55019]

Morning all.

As @Frosty hollows has already said the UK Meto have just issued a yellow thunderstorm warning for Sunday. 
 

So something to hopefully look forward to over the coming weekend.

[Andy Bown]

 Dangerous55019  I think like Monday their warning area is too broad. The Southern extent of that yellow warning might get a few developing sharp showers running SSW-NNE, which will turn thundery from roughly the M4 Northwards. 
 

That often happens in the set up progged for Sunday with the Southern areas quickly returning to a sunny late afternoon into the evening. 

[CoventryWeather]

Arome is in range and shows some potent energy. 

[WeatherArc]

Nice to see the return of +15 degree dewpoints, that combined with surface heating into the low to mid 20 degrees should yield some decent cape values for this time of the year (800-1400 j/kg sbcape) 

Could lead to a few thunderstorms sunday afternoon.

Despite some low level curvature present i suspect these will be pulse storms, bulk and 850mb shear is weak

Mid level lapse rates not amazing but may change models very uncertain, gfs not amazing but other models such as GDPS is more favourable (6.4+)

Low level lapse rates seem good though, gfs has 7.2 0-3km, leads to some high 3cape values.

 

imo cloud cover and saturation of the profile overdone by gfs, gdps likely has a better handle on coverage. 

If cloud cover is sorted out and lapse rates improve i wouldnt be surprised to see 1,500 to maybe even 2,000 sbcape with much more active thunderstorms.

Heres latest UKV

Will also be watching northern France for possible development.