Tropical Storm Ernesto

[Gray-Wolf]

Ernesto seems to have 'held station' for a few hours now, almost as though his centre is forming/reforming but with not a lot of forward distance covered. All in all a good thing if you don't want your top knocked off by the sheer to your west (which has now looked to die away/be overpowered) and all the more ominous for the Caribbean region if he now rapidly strengthens and heads WNW carried by the steering currents.This said it must follow that the 'track' that was plotted will change and I imagine that to happen a lot if he does 'pinball' his way to the yukatan channel, if he survives all of that (without causing loss of life,property etc.) we can think on further!

The coastal erosion of the salt marshes and island barriers along the southern states bordering the Gulf do not need any more rapid errosion nor does that ecosystem need another battering. Any large storm in the gulf is going to cause large waves/tides along that coast over the next month (remember the VERY high tide we are expecting this moon?) so it's not just Earny that causes me to be concerned.As for a storm 'straffing' that coast with the 'high' quarter lashing that coast with surge, well.....

[SnowBear]

000

WTNT25 KNHC 262043

TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006

2100 UTC SAT AUG 26 2006

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED

A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...

HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO IN EASTERN CUBA. A

HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN

THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI

BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24

HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR

JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF

HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE

SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA...

THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA KEYS...

AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS

OF ERNESTO.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 71.6W AT 26/2100Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.

50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

34 KT.......100NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.

12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE 30SW 60NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 71.6W AT 26/2100Z

AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 71.2W

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 16.8N 73.3W

MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

34 KT...100NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.1N 75.4W

MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.4N 77.6W

MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.

50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 20.8N 79.8W

MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 23.5N 83.5W

MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 25.5N 86.0W

MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 28.0N 87.0W

MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 71.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

Thats a Cat 3, 150-200 miles offshore AL/FL Panhandle

[Calrissian]

God, I love a good storm. looks like Ernestno will not dissapoint.

Nothing quite as exciting as watching an atmospheric heat transference mechanism at its best

---

Its only Sat' evening and its getting close to cane status already.

Calrissian: Cat'5.1

[SnowBear]

Reason for lack of HDOB messeges becomes apparent, satcom failure during this afternoon/evenings mission.

Forecast Discussion

000

WTNT45 KNHC 262105

TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006

500 PM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006

ON A MISSION THAT FEATURED A SATCOM FAILURE...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE

HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED THAT THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WAS

WELL EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY POSITION. HOW

MUCH OF THIS IS DUE TO RE-FORMATION OF THE CENTER AND HOW MUCH IS

DUE TO AN ACTUAL TRACK CHANGE IS UNCLEAR. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A

CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 997 MB...AND A DROPWINDSONDE NORTHEAST OF THE

CENTER SHOWED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AT LEAST 50

KT. WHILE THE RE-FORMATION PUTS THE CENTER CLOSER TO THE

CONVECTION...ERNESTO IS STILL ENCOUNTERING NOTABLE WESTERLY TO

SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY UNCERTAIN 295/11. WHILE THE OVERALL

SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE

REFORMATION OF THE CENTER REQUIRES SHIFTING THE FIRST 72 HR OF THE

TRACK ABOUT 50 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THIS

INCREASES THE THREAT TO HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...CUBA...AND

THE FLORIDA KEYS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFS SOLUTION OF

BRINGING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF ERNESTO TO SOUTH FLORIDA LOOKS

DUBIOUS...AS THE 500 MB CENTER STAYS WELL TO THE SOUTH OVER CUBA.

AFTER 72 HR...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER

AGREEMENT THAT THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE

BROKEN BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE

MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW

ERNESTO TO TURN NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN GULF OF

MEXICO...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN SPEED BETWEEN THE

SLOWER UKMET AND ECMWF AND THE FASTER NOGAPS. THE LATTER PART OF

THE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AT A

SLOW SPEED...SIMILAR TO BUT EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MORE

ADJUSTMENTS OF THE FORECAST TRACK MAY NECESSARY ON THE NEXT

ADVISORY DEPENDING ON ANY NEW JUMPS IN THE CENTER POSITION TONIGHT.

THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A

LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...ALTHOUGH

SO FAR THEY HAVE BEEN TOO FAST IN DOING SO. IF THE MODELS ARE

CORRECT...THE SHEAR SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR AND

ALLOW ERNESTO TO STRENGTHEN. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW

STRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST 24 HR...AND STEADY STRENGTHENING

THEREAFTER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR ERNESTO TO REACH 105

KT INTENSITY IN 120 HR...SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL...

AND THE STORM COULD GET STRONGER THAN THAT. ONE POTENTIAL PROBLEM

WITH THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS INTERACTION WITH LAND...AS ERNESTO

MIGHT NOT STRENGTHEN AS MUCH AS FORECAST IF IT GETS TOO CLOSE TO

HISPANIOLA OR CUBA.

IN SUMMARY...ERNESTO COULD BECOME A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE

AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF

MEXICO. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE

PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/2100Z 15.9N 71.6W 50 KT

12HR VT 27/0600Z 16.8N 73.3W 50 KT

24HR VT 27/1800Z 18.1N 75.4W 60 KT

36HR VT 28/0600Z 19.4N 77.6W 70 KT

48HR VT 28/1800Z 20.8N 79.8W 80 KT

72HR VT 29/1800Z 23.5N 83.5W 85 KT

96HR VT 30/1800Z 25.5N 86.0W 95 KT

120HR VT 31/1800Z 28.0N 87.0W 105 KT <(Cat 3, 150-200 miles offshore AL/FL Panhandle)

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

URNT12 KNHC 262144

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE

A. 26/21:35:50Z

B. 16 deg 14 min N

071 deg 38 min W

C. 850 mb 1423 m

D. 45 kt

E. 40 deg 034 nm

F. 140 deg 056 kt

G. 047 deg 015 nm

H. 997 mb

I. 15 C/ 1518 m

J. 22 C/ 1527 m

K. NA C/ NA

L. NA

M. NA

N. 12345/ 8

O. 0.02 / 3 nm

P. AF304 0405A ERNESTO OB 07

MAX FL WIND 56 KT NE QUAD 21:31:00 Z

[crimsone]

Public advisory 9A...

REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...16.5 N...72.2 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60

MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT

1100 PM EDT.

$$

FORECASTER KNABB/MAINELLI

If that track forecast get's any further east, it'll be "look out Florida Keys!" lol

[kold weather]

Tropical storm Ernesto has strengthened it seems again overnight and it now has a very good structure indeed and probably is only 6hrs away from beocming a hurricane given recon has found winds at 78kts at flight level, even if they are suspect.

Intresting to note that the models are stil lshifting eastwards and its quite amazing to see several models are making Ernesto make landfqall now in S.Florida!

Its now taking a NW track which is faster then what the models firstly expected which has meant the track has had to be shifted eastwards:

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_05.gif

Now this could well make a huge difference to its strength in the gulf, because if it spends a lot of time over Cuba it may well come out of the other side a much weaker system then weas expected. The northward jog also means that it'll have less time to re-organise over the gulf so ideas of a major hurricane could well be massivly over-done if thats the case as iot would only have 24-36hrs over the gulf if it took the more northern route that some models expect:

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_05.gif

However I do think the idea of a re-crve is probably a touch over-done and that the models will very slowly shift back westwards as they realise they have over-done the weakness which really isn't that strong as they are making it out to be at the moment.

One option though that the re-curve idea does throw up is a possible Tampa hit. Much depend son how much land interaction there is between Ernesto and Cuba and I'd guess it probably have a hard time over Cuba but once out the other side it should enter every favorable ground and there are a few similarties between this storm and Charley, though Charley had a better set-up going for it and much less time over land.

How strong it gets is once again going to be dominated bvy how strong it gets now and how long it spends inland and thus it makes any forecast very hard indeed and prone to being wrong. I'd say a hurricane pretty soon is likely and the NHC has Ernesto getting upto category-2 before making landfall and weakneing, before they re-power it upto a category-3 in the gulf. I myslef would go along with that but with slighty less land interaction with Cuba (Making landfall in central Cuba.) Beyond that and Tampa is going to have to pay attention because Tampa is nearly as vunerable as NO if the storm takes the right path.

[kold weather]

Talking about Ernesto getting stronger....here's hurricane Ernesto!

Statement as of 5:04 am EDT on August 27, 2006

...Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicates that Tropical Storm Ernesto has now reached hurricane strength...

Recent dropsonde and flight-level wind data from an Air Force

Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained

winds in Tropical Storm Ernesto have increased to 75 mph. This

makes Ernesto a category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson

hurricane scale.

$$

Forecaster Stewart

Recent discussion from NHC are noting that that Ernesto has a very small eye, in other words a pinhole eye could form and is under extremely favorable condtions for development which will mean some rpaid development is possible before landfall over Cuba, which is bad news indeed because the stronger this system gets now the stronger it'll be when it exits Cuba. I agree wit hthe NHC new thoughts strongly, could well beocme a major before landfall in Cuba in 24-36hrs time which is quite rapid development but its developing a classic 3 outflow channel set-up which is what all the powerful hurricanes form plus shear is getting lighter (evident by the center now in the middle of the convection.)

Possible bombing is going to occur over the next 12-24hrs if land doesn't disrupt it too much.

[Louby]

I see the predicted route at the moment is up through the G.O.M could this become as strong and as nasty as Katrina?

[kold weather]

Probably won't have the time to become quite as powerful as Katrina but much does depend on both how strong it gets in the next 24hrs and also how lnog it spends over land. The seas are hot enough though to at least support a high end category-4 like hurricane Charley, esp if it ends up abit more to the west then expected and passes the infamous loop current. I'm being cautious now and saying it'll probably get down to about cat-3 before making landfall but even a cat-3 would be deadly for many places along Florida's west coast, esp Tampa.

[Kain]

Would it be bad of me if I say YAY first hurricane of the season?

I always feel abit wierd really, as I love it when theres hurricanes to watch and track, but then I reemmber what it does to peoples lives..hmm.

Anyway Ernesto already looks huge on the sat pics, could it indeed become and other monster?

Kain

[Louby]

Thanks Kold

Would it be bad of me if I say YAY first hurricane of the season?

I always feel abit wierd really, as I love it when theres hurricanes to watch and track, but then I reemmber what it does to peoples lives..hmm.

Anyway Ernesto already looks huge on the sat pics, could it indeed become and other monster?

Kain

I know what you mean Kane, I also love to track hurricanes and to see the awesome raw power of them, but then as you say you see what distruction is causes.

The surfers on the west coast will be sending up a cheer no doubt, this could signal the start of proper surf for them.

[Gray-Wolf]

I'm not sold on the latest tracks posted for Huricane Erny , I think he still has a bit of intenal 'tidying' to do before he'll be at a point that we can start to predict his track' from (look at how 12hrs has altered the 'track' and then think what 2 days could do!).

The loss of the pesky shear to the west does mean things are well favourable for rapid development now and the current steering currents could have him sail south of Cuba (battering its south coast) before it turns north into the Gulf at the western end of the island. Depending on what state he is in on leaving Cuba will have a lot to do with 'what comes next' for Erny.

If he's battered and bruised by the land crossing then the lower level winds will steer him for a while until he builds again, if he passes over Cuba with little damage to his structure then the major steering currents will take him straight across the gulf without any left turn into southern Florida.

Plenty of time for that later, lets just see how he grows today and which way he takes finally looks to be taking off in.

[Hurricane Debby]

Would it be bad of me if I say YAY first hurricane of the season?

I always feel abit wierd really, as I love it when theres hurricanes to watch and track, but then I reemmber what it does to peoples lives..hmm.

Anyway Ernesto already looks huge on the sat pics, could it indeed become and other monster?

Kain

I know exactly what you mean Kane and so relate. But can I just say YAY Our First Hurricane ! At last !!!

UPDATED: 11:00 pm EDT, August 26, 2006

LATEST ON ERNESTO SUGGESTS A THREAT TO FLORIDA PANHANDLE

The latest info out of the NHC shows Ernesto moving on a track that would place it very close to the western Florida panhandle in about six days or so. Of course we should all know by now how much track forecasts can change and I think the big message here is that Ernesto is likely to be a threat for the eastern or central Gulf coast states. First, Ernesto will impact portions of the Greater Antilles and Jamaica with possible hurricane conditions in some locations. Overall the computer models have changed from what looked like a Texas threat to an eastern Gulf coast threat over the last couple of days. This shows us how hard it is to forecast these tropical cyclones and underscores the importance of being ready- no matter what. This particular track forecast will change with time as more details come in about the surrounding atmosphere in the Gulf early next week. At least there is plenty of time to prepare once we know more about where Ernesto will end up.

As far as intensity goes, the NHC has backed off of their 120 mph forecast from 5pm and now shows 115 mph at the five day plot. While this is only a slightly weaker hurricane, we must not read too much in to this. Who knows? We might have a stronger or weaker system to deal with- just remember that intensity forecasting is very tough even with the best computer models. Once again, it will be important to just monitor the situation and see how things line up. We're still talking about a tropical storm right now and a lot can happen over time. There's nothing else brewing in the Atlantic at the moment and so our attention can be placed on Ernesto and the important anniversary coming up on Tuesday. At least more people will be aware of what is going on in the tropics this last week of August- no matter what happens with Ernesto. I will have more here Sunday morning.

Courtesy Hurricane Track

[kold weather]

The track has shifted abit because the upper level high is a touch weaker then expected therefore Ernesto has been allowed to take a northerly jog. I'd expect a slight turn back to the wes tlater this morning given the current steering currents but I'd think a landfall in cuba is looking odds on now. As is rapid development sadly for Cuba, I can see it being hit by a cat-3 given how small the center is according to NHC and just how favorable the set-up is infront of it, with very little shear present you can already see the outflow looking very good on its western side and its heading towards an are of high heat content.

As you say Gray-wolf, to many ifs and buts to make a decent forecast right now but either way this system cvould be quite powerful before it crosses Cuba.

[SnowBear]

000

URNT12 KNHC 271012

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE

A. 27/09:57:30Z

B. 17 deg 15 min N

073 deg 06 min W

C. 700 mb 3068 m

D. NA kt

E. NA deg 000 nm

F. 134 deg 067 kt

G. 043 deg 012 nm

H. EXTRAP 995 mb

I. 6 C/ 3061 m

J. 13 C/ 3055 m

K. 9 C/ NA

L. NA

M. NA

N. 12345/ 7

O. 0.02 / 1 nm

P. AF303 0505A ERNESTO OB 23

MAX FL WIND 69 KT NW QUAD 08:32:00 Z

SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB

[SnowBear]

Looking at this loop http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

Seems its making a more and more northerly track, possibly cross Haiti/far eastern tip of Cuba?

Interesting one is Ernesto!

Eye just becoming visible on this loop

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

[kold weather]

It does look that way however IR is NOT a good tool to use for tracking system because what tyou could be seeing is the anvils from the central dense overcast expand northwards as the outflow establishes itslef. not saying however it isn't moving further north then expected because it does seem like it may well be but a little advice!

Reason for the northward movement seems to be down to the Bermuda high being slightly weaker then expected. However IF it does take a more northerly route then its not a good thing at all because that will mean even less land interaction will occur and that will allow it to beocme even stronger then expected.

Mind you saying that the steering current maps do indicate Ernesto should turn slightly back to the WNW in the next 6hrs, but it'll be intresting to see if that occurs and just how far north it gets before then.

The biggest fear has to be it gets to the north of Cuba then the ridge turns it back westwards into the gulf steam/loop current...

[Gray-Wolf]

The biggest fear has to be it gets to the north of Cuba then the ridge turns it back westwards into the gulf steam/loop current...

I have a pet theory that once it's spoken out loud (or in print) then it brings 'the thing' into the realm of possibility so some things are best left unsaid......and talk of pausing over the loop current is just one such thing!!!! we'll be back with him passing through the Florida straights and on into the Gulf that way next!!! (poor South Florida). Of course that would be the very worst case scenario with him heading west along the gulf coast at a cat4/5.......

[SnowBear]

Image deleted, not to sure that was Ernesto, think NOAA got images mixed up for a while.

Added current visible image..

[crimsone]

...and here we see why I don't like nightime sattelite visibles. lol

As an aside, P.Advisory 11 gave the following...

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...17.0 N...73.1 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70

MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB.

I know that from the vortex data message that SB posted earlier that recon extrapolated a low of 995 mb (2 mb under yesterdays 45kt TS), but that seems a little conservative to me. The NHC suggested that recon were unable to take an accurate reading of the pressure due to a forming pinhole eye, and so perhaps the NHC idea of 990mb is more likely?

Edit : The 11A intermediate says that recon has reported a 997mb center. Perhaps it isn't any lower after all, but it seems odd to me that a 45kt TS could become a low end Cat1 Hurricane, and not drop in pressure. 997mb is where it was yesterday...

REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...17.3 N...73.4 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75

MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

[kold weather]

First visable imagery shows a very healthy Ernesto this afternoon, got a very impressive outflow on its western side, very impressive and it really shouldn't be suprising that Ernesto is now a hurricane, and given how impressive the outflow is and how low the shear is and given how hot the SSt's are nearby it I think it could be on a decent strengthening trend.Also given it has a small center and therefore probably a tight gradient it does have a chance at fairly fast development however land interaction should start to limit it soon. Anyway heres the first hurricane advisory:

Statement as of 8:00 am EDT on August 27, 2006

...Ernesto...now a hurricane...approaching the southwest peninsula

of Haiti...heavy rains and flooding possible over much of

Hispaniola...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect for the southern coast of Haiti

from the Haiti-Dominican Republic border westward to the

southwestern tip of Haiti. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane

conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24

hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed

to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning is recommended for the South Coast of the

Dominican Republic from Barahona to the Dominican Republic-Haiti

border. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm

conditions are expected within the warning area...in this case

within the next 12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for

Jamaica.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the provinces of Las

Tunas...Granma...Holguin...Santiago de Cuba...and Guantanamo in

eastern Cuba. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions

are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours. A

Hurricane Warning is recommended for the Cuban provinces of Granma

and Santiago de Cuba.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Cayman Islands.

A tropical storm watch may be required for portions of the Florida

Keys later today.

Interests elsewhere in the northwestern Caribbean Sea...Cuba...

the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico...the Florida Keys...

and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico...should monitor the progress

of Ernesto.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible

inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued

by your local weather office.

At 800 am EDT...1200z...the center of Hurricane Ernesto was

located near latitude 17.3 north...longitude 73.4 west or about 115

miles...180 km...southwest of Port au Prince Haiti and about

210 miles...340 km...south-southeast of Guantanamo Cuba.

Ernesto is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph...15 km/hr...

and a northwestward to west-northwestward motion is expected during

the next 24 hours. On this track...the center of Ernesto is

expected to pass very near southwestern tip of Haiti this afternoon

or early evening ...and be near the southeastern coast of Cuba

Monday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph...120 km/hr...with higher

gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24

hours...and Ernesto could become a category 2 hurricane before it

reaches the coast of Cuba.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles...150 km

from the center.

An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft reported a minimum central

pressure of 997 mb...29.44 inches.

Tides of up to 3 ft above normal tide levels are expected on Jamaica

and the southwestern peninsula of Haiti as the center of Ernesto

approaches.

Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches...with possible isolated amounts

of up to 20 inches...are expected over Haiti and the Dominican

Republic. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods

and mud slides. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches...with possible

isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches...are expected across portions

of Jamaica and eastern Cuba.

Repeating the 800 am EDT position...17.3 N...73.4 W. Movement

toward...northwest near 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds...75

mph. Minimum central pressure...997 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at

1100 am EDT.

$$

Forecaster Pasch

[SnowBear]

URNT12 KNHC 271204

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE

A. 27/11:30:50Z

B. 17 deg 17 min N

073 deg 20 min W

C. 700 mb 3086 m

D. 45 kt

E. 48 deg 003 nm

F. 165 deg 048 kt

G. 071 deg 015 nm

H. EXTRAP 997 mb

I. 6 C/ 3046 m

J. 14 C/ 3059 m

K. 6 C/ NA

L. OPEN S

M. E33/8/5

N. 12345/ 7

O. 0.02 / 2 nm

P. AF303 0505A ERNESTO OB 27

MAX FL WIND 69 KT N QUAD 08:32:00 Z

SFC CNTR WITHIN 5NM FROM FL CNTR

SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB

[kold weather]

Intresting to note the pressure has risen again since last recon, then again sometimes storms do this as they sort out thier inner core, then they bomb so its one to watch.

more of note is look at the first visables this morning on snowbears first post on this page, by far the best looking storm so far this year. note the very impressive outflow on the western side, classic sign that the shear has died right away now. Still alot of convective mess on its eastern side but that should become wrapped around the system later today as the hurricane deepens. the ONLY thing that can stop Ernesto now is land interaction with Cuba later tonight...

Ernesto's Track should start to turn WNW from now on as the bermuda high re-positions itslef to push it WNW, last night a slight weakness formed which allowed Ernesto to move NW into the small weakness but thats nearly gone now.

[crimsone]

Makes sense. Thanks KW.

It's good to see the eyewall profiles finally being used in the vortex data message. It's been a long time since we last saw anything mentioned in those!

[Reevesie]

Quick question for the Hurricane experts ... Im flying out to Varadero on Thursday (31st August). Can I expect any problems from Ernesto or will he be long gone?? Thanks,