Snow & Cold Spell General Discussion Part 5

[Noctilucid]

Its not going pear shaped, its only just begun...

Dont listen to beeb peoples, listen to Metcheck and the smart people on this place, beeb dont have a clue and from expeirience metoffice are only good at predicying summer thunderstorms, which i must hand it to em, were very accurate last year, despite the fact the beeb supposedly works with metoffice, why do their forecasts contradict most of the time?

If ya want snow, move to Iceland!

Joe

[andy_leics22]

This is a joke, everyone stop panicking about it and calm down, it doesent matter if the BBC have changed their forecast slightly over the last half an hour, the 18z clearly shows what the 12z showed and that is...

Rain/snow band getting into the midlands by around 6am, slowly moving north most the day until it stalls around north nottingham/south yorkshire then fizzling out slowly. Theres no need to start calling it a downgrade or a let-down, just calm down it will happen, you will see.

It's like one last minute change of forecast and everyones gone into metldown, it will happen as they said earlier and come across the midlands and slowly move northwards, everythings fine.

[boro_dave]

THIS IS OFFICIALLY THE MOTHER OF ALL DOWNGRADES

(that is, if the bbc are right, and seeing as it is all now supposed to start how can they be wrong from this range?)

BBC at midnight: Temps higher EVERYWHERE, less snow EVERYWHERE, VERY little IF ANY snow getting as far north as the midlands, rain for most south of m4, then all precipitation gone by mid afternoon.

Could well be the BIGGEST SNOW LET DOWN OF MY LIFE, AND IT HAPPENS A LOT.

[shrike]

Did the gfs ever really show ssnow though?

We were always above the 528dam and the temp were always above -5

I think it's the pros called this wrong bigtime.

It's a disgrace really one which I've seen many times before

Could be egg on face time bigtime come tomorrow!

[snowingtequila]

Its not going pear shaped, its only just begun...

Dont listen to beeb peoples, listen to Metcheck and the smart people on this place, beeb dont have a clue and from expeirience metoffice are only good at predicying summer thunderstorms, which i must hand it to em, were very accurate last year, despite the fact the beeb supposedly works with metoffice, why do their forecasts contradict most of the time?

If ya want snow, move to Iceland!

Joe

ha ha

[Nick F]

Nick Matey-

Have a look at the 11 & 1130 radar that looks a MEGA easterly jog- not a lot of Northerly Vector.......

S

Hi Steve, yes, been looking at the EUMESAT loops below:

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/listIm...200900#controls

... and it shows a circulation just of SW Ireland begining to drag East the frontal system rather than North

Hi nick from a fellow Royal tun wells citizen!!

My thought ar ethat we are looking at a good dumping tomorrow and for once we will be more favoured than the usual far east of kent.

What are your thoughts and when doyou suspect we will see the first signs here in royal tun wells?

Should see some snow around 3am I reckon, should be far enough inland and enough elevation for it to stay as snow through the morning before it moves NE, them maybe a slow thaw through the afternoon.

[fordy]

Oh god. The mother of all let downs. The final nail in the coffin. I really do hope not.

A cynic from the start and I shall have more reason to be so if this fails.

Its funny how the midlands was supposed to get the worst of it now it might not even reach here, good for those further south though who were expecting rain

[Noctilucid]

Theres schools already closed tomorrow because of weather warnings.

If this doesn't come off some people will be well pe'd off.

I still think Wales, SW Midlands, Central Southern England could see quite a bit.

Our school isnt!

My sisters is!

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

i want to kill all of the bbc forecasters just like to let you know how can they change the foorecast so dramaicaly within an hour for godsake my litle sister is going to be so dissapointed

ok ive calmed down maybe i was a little harsh lol

You will get some snow from this.

Especially being at over 600ft, I would say that you will get at least a few cms.

[SMU]

name='Steve Murr' date='7 Feb 2007, 11:57 PM' post='916484']

A meso low is suggested to develop across SE England by noon tomorrow looking at the 18z GFS - may enhance ppn across London area/E Anglia:

Though highest snowfall totals still likely over the Central belt through Wales, Midlands to the Wash where the T+24 FAX for 18z tomorrow shows front has stalled across here which will prolong snowfall:

Nick Matey-

Have a look at the 11 & 1130 radar that looks a MEGA easterly jog- not a lot of Northerly Vector.......

S

Just waiting for the 12am radar- looking for another easterly vector-

Worrying time for those on the periphery to the North-

dont hit the self destruct buttons just yet- but i have tried to warn people with the word SOUTH in nearly every post....

S

[PersianPaladin]

Its not going pear shaped, its only just begun...

Dont listen to beeb peoples, listen to Metcheck and the smart people on this place, beeb dont have a clue and from expeirience metoffice are only good at predicying summer thunderstorms, which i must hand it to em, were very accurate last year, despite the fact the beeb supposedly works with metoffice, why do their forecasts contradict most of the time?

If ya want snow, move to Iceland!

Joe

I'm sorry, but I have to defend the METO here. What you said was entirely unfounded and baseless.

[weather_it_will]

A Michael Fish moment.

[Lynxus]

OMG, looking at meteox radar and others.. looks like thats it..

Not gonna reach much further north than it is then slides west....

Game over man, Game over...

[philcoles]

Thanks Andy,

Everyone stay coooool !!!!!!!!! ha ha!

No seriously - take a few local observations and it will support the previoues 18z run. Also remember large cold masss sitting over uk - laws of physics: cold heavier than warm air - precipitation falling into cold air mass - SNOW, WHIPPEEE!!!

[kaz]

calm down calm down you are going to see snow.. be patient take a deep breath..

And think of us mugs down here getting nothing but wind and rain AGAIN.. At least your in with a chance a very good one at that.. lmao

kaz x

[BristolBlizzard]

My main worry is the temperature, I think its about 0.5C here at the moment with a Dew Point of -2. The PPN will probs reach here around 01:15 I'm guessing, will it be rain/sleet or snow?

[mathall1]

I was expecting to see something happen by now.I hope something does before 2am i wanna go bed but when i do.I find its all melted by time i get up.So i choose to stay up a few hrs just to see a winter scene when i open the door

[crimsone]

Well, it continues to snow here in Kenfig hill, and still it won't stick. I don't know if the temperature and dewpoint will drop low enough to see a covering anytime soon, but to be honest, I'm just pleased to see the magical white flakes dropping from the sky at last (and for a change)

[shrike]

OMG, looking at meteox radar and others.. looks like thats it..

Not gonna reach much further north than it is then slides west....

Game over man, Game over...

True

[Lynxus]

My main worry is the temperature, I think its about 0.5C here at the moment with a Dew Point of -2. The PPN will probs reach here around 01:15 I'm guessing, will it be rain/sleet or snow?

I wouldnt even worrie about the temp..

The front seems to be struggling to move north.. i have a feeling it may never do this.

If it does, all precip will of faded away!

I hope im wrong, But latest radars tell a differnet story

[snowingtequila]

Well the precipitation may not reach here if what folks here are sayin but it is -5 outside so certainly no warm air getting here in a hurry.

[tom_f123]

what does rob mcelwe think hes doing he better have changed it again lol

[andy_leics22]

Ok just to back up why I said ignore that BBC forecast where it says no snow getting north of south midlands...

Tell me, is that not showing PPN as far north as south yorkshire tomorrow midday?

[kold weather]

Yeah Steve you were right aobut that much, mind uyou its not a bad thing for our location, so I won't moan!

As you wanted to know the radar shows the front now alinged to the WNW-ESE, tilting is happening way faster then expected, northerly extent is going to be dragged even further south, so main risk zone moves into S.Midlands ans the south now if this trend continues, also noteable dry slot still there and growing, not great but you cn clearly see the two main frontal systems.

By the way Stee, do you think we should watch for any morebeefy cells going up like the one near the channel islands?

If latest trend continues, then climatology wins against the models, proves just how een now the models can get it wrong!

Worse for Midlands, better for the south is the way to veiw latest set-up, though stil lnot bad for S.Midlands.

[Noctilucid]

I'm sorry, but I have to defend the METO here. What you said was entirely unfounded and baseless.

I complemented them!

On their summer storm forecasts, they just cant handle snow and thats probrably down to the models anyway

oh deary me, the capital letters are out to play, it hasnt even started and people are cursing and flaming already

Oh well only 2 days till half term, unless school is closed, then my bid not to do my history coursework will pay offf haha

I relly shoulf get to sleep soon

Ok i am dissapointed with reports so far but im not sharing my misery with everyone through capital letters, pleaseif you are peed off, shout at the wall or your dog or something but not on here... Ta!