March CET

[summer blizzard]

Do we know what the Met Office is currently running at???

Looks likely that i will be around 1C out, much better than previous months, except December.

[J10]

Can I ask a question, what will the baseline figure for the March CET comp be.

[Stratos Ferric]

Can I ask a question, what will the baseline figure for the March CET comp be.

In putting together the competition results I have been using Philip Eden's values. To be honest, the variation between the different CET options is far smaller than the gap between most entrants in the CET competition so that the choice of series is almost certainly not material to the outcome, certainly between Philip's values and the official UKMO numbers.

[Snowly does it]

Do we know what the Met Office is currently running at???

Looks likely that i will be around 1C out, much better than previous months, except December.

Hi SB, it was 0.1 ahead of Manley on the 12th, don't know any update since then

[Snowly does it]

Output to the 24th on Manley is a rounded up 6.8.

The last week will require the following to achieve certain endpoints (working from 6.8 as the start point)

8 - 12.2

7.5 - 9.9

7 - 7.7

6.5 - 5.4

6.3 (March Avg) - 4.5

Edited March 25, 2007 by snowmaiden

[Bobby]

7.3c - 7.4c looks likely I think, my 7.9c not too far out.

[Joneseye]

CET: (Mar 1-25): 6.8°C (+0.6 degC) © Philip Eden (If you wish to use or copy these figures, please acknowledge the source)

The current N-W UK tracker figure for March 2007 is: 7.06°C (difference from average March CET is 0.76°C)

With 5 full days left what will the final figure be? I would say something in the 7.1-7.3 range..

[Stratos Ferric]

CET: (Mar 1-25): 6.8°C (+0.6 degC) © Philip Eden (If you wish to use or copy these figures, please acknowledge the source)

The current N-W UK tracker figure for March 2007 is: 7.06°C (difference from average March CET is 0.76°C)

With 5 full days left what will the final figure be? I would say something in the 7.1-7.3 range..

I'd think we're looking at 7.0-7.1. Today / tomorrow should take us to about 7, but things stall, if they don't take a hit, on Thur - Sat. If we get a cold night and a couple of cold days something a touch under 7 still isn't out of the question, but I'd still reckon a rounded 7 or 7.1 as likeliest.

Edited March 26, 2007 by Stratos Ferric

[Snowly does it]

I'd think we're looking at 7.0-7.1. Today / tomorrow should take us to about 7, but things stall, if they don't take a hit, on Thur - Sat. If we get a cold night and a couple of cold days something a touch under 7 still isn't out of the question, but I'd still reckon a rounded 7 or 7.1 as likeliest.

Well, if it stays at 7.1 or lower it will be the first month since August not to exceed its 10 year mean which would at least be something of an achievement in these warm times!

[kold weather]

Its going to be intresting to see exactly where this month ends up. The next 3 days all look quite capable of producing warm maxes, indeed I'm rather happy at my call for a possible 18C on either Tuesday or Wednesday, we may yet get a max of 20C tommorow!

I think my punt may well be rather close though whatever happens, certainly below the net weather average error for the month!

By the way today should lift us to 6.9C, and if we get the same CET in the next 2 days (Tues+wednesday progged to be warmer mind you) then it should end up at 7.1C

Edited March 26, 2007 by kold weather

[reef]

The Manley CET is now running at 6.9C, a rise influenced mainly by the high maximas as minimum temperatures were around average overall.

http://www.climate-uk.com/

Interesting to note that until the 26th, the Hadley value is still running 0.1C above the Manley, equalling the January CET:

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Edited March 27, 2007 by reef

[SNOW-MAN2006]

My predicted CET may actually turn out very near to the true value!!! 6.9 was my prediction and i think that the final CET may only be 0.3 away from this so atlast i have nail how to get a decent CET ....

SM06

[Stratos Ferric]

It's looking like 7.1, or perhaps just nudging 7.2, as the final outcome.

[kold weather]

I suspect that Sat value may just push it upto 7.2C, esp given the mins ar eprogged to be around 5-7C that day. it also has to be said Friday also looks a good deal warmer then firstly progged, at least by day though Thursday still looks fairly cxhilly for the time of year if the GFS is to be believed. Looking likely that it'll be between 7.1-7.3 IMO, damn close to my punt of 7.3, though I'd like it more if it was bang on!

[Optimus Prime]

My 7.0c prediction looks alright. But I think it'll be higher. 7.5c (+1.8c)

[The PIT]

My 7.0c prediction looks alright. But I think it'll be higher. 7.5c (+1.8c)

Unlikely tomorrow is supposed to be cooler anyway so that leaves three days to give a huge boost.

[Kentish Man]

The Manley CET is up to 7.0C today. For the next few days cooler days will be offset by milder nights but there won't be a dramatic rise - 7.2C final outturn?

[Stratos Ferric]

The Manley CET is up to 7.0C today. For the next few days cooler days will be offset by milder nights but there won't be a dramatic rise - 7.2C final outturn?

I'd be surprised if it rises at all: with temps looking like turning out around 10-4 across the CET zone, there should be only very marginal movement in the CET today + tomorrow. At most it might climb a further 0.1 if saturday warms a bit, something on which I wouldn't bank if winds tip around more NE'ly.

The strong favourite for me right now is 7.0, which is probably at around 2-1 on. 7.1 is at about 3-1, and 6.9 is at about 10-1 and 7.2 maybe a shade outside that at 12-1 or so.

My 7.0c prediction looks alright. But I think it'll be higher. 7.5c (+1.8c)

OP: a 0.5C rise would require 14 degree days over and above what we have already: spread over the three remaining days of the month that would require 14/3, call it 5C including the correction for the three days yet to come in the month, over and above current mean. That means a daily average of 12C. Even the last two warm days have only produced about 8C. It's not going to happen, not by a country mile.

[Stargazer]

I'd be surprised if it rises at all: with temps looking like turning out around 10-4 across the CET zone, there should be only very marginal movement in the CET today + tomorrow. At most it might climb a further 0.1 if saturday warms a bit, something on which I wouldn't bank if winds tip around more NE'ly.

The strong favourite for me right now is 7.0, which is probably at around 2-1 on. 7.1 is at about 3-1, and 6.9 is at about 10-1 and 7.2 maybe a shade outside that at 12-1 or so.

Still think there's a good chance of a turnout of around 11-5 between now and Saturday, giving 7.1 overall. Of course I would say this as 7.1 was my original guess

[reef]

The Hadley CET is currently sitting at a value of 7.1°C to the 28th, so still running 0.1°C above the Manley. I think a lot will depend on the minima values tonight and tomorrow. The GFS is progging temperatures to fall to 1-2°C in places tonight, but I think that is very optimistic. Friday night then widely has values of 6-7°C, which may make a difference as the average minima so far this month is actually running closer to average.

I imagine a final Manley value of 7.1°C or 7.2°C is a good bet. Though the Hadley could sneak to 7.3°C and make it another +1.0°C month.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

What is alarming however is how anomalous the warmth is so far this year:

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/graphs/...rs_uptodate.gif

We better hope this anomaly is reduced during the course of the year, otherwise people are going to have to start taking notice.

Edited March 29, 2007 by reef

[kold weather]

Its really only the cool night time mins that have saved this month from being extremely above average, still its been a very intresting month, very high maxes and probably fairly cool mins to boot.

As Reef said much depends on those night-times mins, i have a feeling that the GFS mins are about 1-2C too low, like last night. Temps today may wlel mean ther eis a chanc eof a slight dip to 6.9C, though thats not likely IMO right now but we won't see no rise today given fairly well supressed maxes of 7-9C.

I'd go for 7.1-7.2C, both maxes on Friday and Sat look likely to be enough to rise it, esp if Friday night does have mins around 5-7C like currently progged.

Edited March 29, 2007 by kold weather

[Snowly does it]

Its really only the cool night time mins that have saved this month from being extremely above average, still its been a very intresting month, very high maxes and probably fairly cool mins to boot.

Yes Kold but without the HP dominance giving low mins its unlikely we woould have had the higher maxima... swings and roundabouts?

[The PIT]

Mins here have been above our long term average although not as much as the Max's of course. It's also been a fairly dry month so perhaps it's a case of clear skies at night that pegged it back slightly.

Edited March 29, 2007 by The PIT

[Thundery wintry showers]

Perhaps we need to keep a watch on those sunshine stats as well. It looks, at this stage, as if it's going to be one of the sunniest Marches on record; probably not up there with 2003, but the likes of 1982, 1990 and 1995 have a strong competitor in England & Wales.

Even in Scotland, where sunshine anomalies are generally lower than in E & W, there's still a chance of it being the second sunniest March for quite a while (it's also worth noting that the Marches of 1990 and 1995 were nothing like as sunny in Scotland as over England & Wales, so maybe Scotland might have its 2nd sunniest March since '82)

[Stratos Ferric]

Perhaps we need to keep a watch on those sunshine stats as well. It looks, at this stage, as if it's going to be one of the sunniest Marches on record; probably not up there with 2003, but the likes of 1982, 1990 and 1995 have a strong competitor in England & Wales.

Even in Scotland, where sunshine anomalies are generally lower than in E & W, there's still a chance of it being the second sunniest March for quite a while (it's also worth noting that the Marches of 1990 and 1995 were nothing like as sunny in Scotland as over England & Wales, so maybe Scotland might have its 2nd sunniest March since '82)

In which regard April is already looking like being noteworthy, as it might be for rainfall. Was it 2004 when we had a very dry April?

Re why we are where we are this month, I actually think all three months this year have tended to be very warm though in each case there has been one notable blip of just sufficient duration to cause modification.

Bearing in mind that last year was a record year with a cold start, we are already something like 5 cumulative degrees ahead of where we were at the same time. Even if July was nothing like as exceptionally warm as last year, we're already in a place from which, accepting recent trend (i.e. it's very unlikely we'll get a run of cool months), it's going to be hard to avoid setting a new annual record. 11C for the year is certainly far from being out of the question as things sit.