March CET

[J10]

What is the baseline for March being the figure that determines whether a person gets 1pt for being on the right side of the average, as an example the figure for Feb was 4.3c.

[North-Easterly Blast]

Assuming March returns a CET of 7.2*C, (7.1 may be still just about possible), then we will have had the warmest first quarter of a year since 1998:

Jan-Mar 2007: 6.73*C

Jan-Mar 1998: 6.80*C

Although the first quarter of 2002 was only marginally less mild than 2007:

Jan-Mar 2002: 6.70*C

The warmest first quarter of a year in the entire CET record was in 1990, with the Jan-Mar period averaging 7.37*C.

So, looking at the above, the first quarter of this year has already put us on target for another very warm year, and it would certainly take a brave man to bet on the annual CET for 2007 being below 10*C, unless a number of cool months occurred during the rest of 2007, which by recent year's standards, looks highly unlikely. We may get one or maybe at the most two cooler than average months this year if we are lucky, but it is difficult to see it not being above average in most months again this year, and it is even already difficult at this stage to see the annual CET for 2007 not being around the 10.50 mark or above.

[kold weather]

NEB, i dare say this year is gonig to have little chance of getting below 10C, probably only a tiny shot if we are lucky but its going to need tosmething quite rare nowdays, a serious of several very below average months.

Its ironic you mention 1998 tohugh, because that had quite a cool summer by our standards and the CET ended up below 10.5C, so while yes its a warm start its still not a certainty that we will see a year above 10.50...tohugh recent years suggest the chances are rather high even if the start wasn't so amazingly mild.

[Megamoonflake]

Looking good for my prediction of 7.1, i think it will increase by 0.1 by Saturday!! :lol:

[Stratos Ferric]

It's looking very much like 7.1, if not 7.0. I always had stroing doubts about yesterday evening's forecasts for 10-12s in the south today. We're going to struggle to hit double digits, and I know last night was cool in places, so today will probably net out at around 7 at best, perhaps a tad under. The highest outturn now looks like being 7.1, and that only if we avoid a cool night tonight and we get sunshine in the south tomorrow.

[The PIT]

Temp is currently just below a nice refreshing 7C here atm - with bursts of moderate rain. A single digit day is a cert here anyway today! Tomorrow looks cool with a raw NE'erly breeze and sunshine at a premium.

Acknowledging that this corner of the country does not exactly represent a countrywide overview, I still can't see any change in the figure

Tamara

Dull cloudy and feels cool here at 7.1C. Odd spot of rain and now since the windows have been washed it should chuck it down shortly.

[WBSH]

I would actually quite like the CET to be 6.9c, then we could say officially that January was warmer than March!!

[Joneseye]

The current N-W UK tracker figure for March 2007 is: 7.19°C

(difference from average March CET is 0.89°C)

Manley is currently CET: (Mar 1-30): 7.0°C (+0.7 degC) © Philip Eden

[kold weather]

Should get upto 7.1C today given last night had widespread mins of 6-7C and progged maxes around 12-14C should be enough to rise it another 0.1C.

[WBSH]

I think its safe to say the low minima during the clear spells such as during the second week have kept the March CET down to more "respectable" levels. Because for some days during daylight hours it was a different story! Jan 07 has a similar CET but the daytime max was nowhere as high, one assumes the minima kept the CET up then.

[J10]

If we were to get 7.1c as a final result, then the overall leaderboard is set to be massively changed.

[Stratos Ferric]

If we were to get 7.1c as a final result, then the overall leaderboard is set to be massively changed.

It will probably not change so much overall: the system favours overall performance, and with each passing month it will tend to become more stable, a bit like the CEt calculation itself over the course of a month.

It's certainly either 7.0 or 7.1. Not sure where we re with the roundings now, but the last two days have netted the overall downwards, so we'd need a very warm day today to get up to 7.1 I think, probably the warmest day of the month to date in fact.

[Great Plum]

Rats, I always get this wrong - I'm notrmally too low - this time I am too high!

[J10]

I have been working on a spreadsheet, that make the final calculations of the scores easier.

Let me know if it works, currently the scores are based on a final CET of 7.1c and March baseline of 6.3c, but this cell can easily be changed.

(These scores are indicative and are not official in any way.)

[kold weather]

Hi Sf, i believe we were very close to 7.1C actually on the Wednesday, we only just misse dout accordin gto my figures, mins were around 6-7C, maxes hold the key but I suspect your right, the maxes may not have quite enough in them to boost us upto 7.1C...saying that IF we can gt a CEt of around 9C for the day then there is a chance we may get upto 7.1C if the figure is rounded up. Very tight but its either 7.0C or 7.1C.

[johnholmes]

for what its worth my Mean temp = 7.5C(4.6) with a mean Max of 11.6C(6.9) and mean Min of 3.4(2.3).

The avge Max is pretty unusual for round here, not yet had a chance to check the Finningley records.

John

[The PIT]

for what its worth my Mean temp = 7.5C(4.6) with a mean Max of 11.6C(6.9) and mean Min of 3.4(2.3).

The avge Max is pretty unusual for round here, not yet had a chance to check the Finningley records.

John

Surprised by that it's looking like we're coming in at 6.6C average for the month. Well above but a lot less than previous months.

[Stratos Ferric]

I have been working on a spreadsheet, that make the final calculations of the scores easier.

Let me know if it works, currently the scores are based on a final CET of 7.1c and March baseline of 6.3c, but this cell can easily be changed.

(These scores are indicative and are not official in any way.)

Jacko,

More than happy to hand over the calculations to you.

[WBSH]

So what was the official March 2007 CET in the end? and how does it compare to the average?

[Thundery wintry showers]

We're still waiting for Hadley; Philip Eden's continuation of the Manley series has it at 7.1.

[J10]

Jacko,

More than happy to hand over the calculations to you.

Many Thanks for that and also for the setting up of the competition, and also for your PM and I have corrected my spreadsheet per your comments. Any queries/errors with any of my calculations please let me know.

[Snowly does it]

We're still waiting for Hadley; Philip Eden's continuation of the Manley series has it at 7.1.

If Hadley is the same, March becoems the first month since August 2006 not to beat its rolling 10 year average of 7.1. Quite an achievement in these dark times!

[Weather-history]

Marches that had a cooler second half compared to the first half since 1870

1870, 1872, 1876, 1878, 1879, 1880, 1881, 1882, 1883, 1888, 1893, 1899, 1900

1901, 1902, 1906, 1910, 1911, 1913, 1914, 1915, 1919, 1922, 1926, 1933, 1939

1941, 1952, 1957, 1959, 1960, 1961, 1966, 1967, 1975, 1977, 1978, 1979, 1980

1984, 1985, 1989, 1991, 1994, 2000

March 2007 joins this list now.

By the way, using Philip's data, the second half of March was cooler than the first half of January by 1.5C

Edited April 1, 2007 by Mr_Data

[summer blizzard]

Really, it seemed to be warmer to me, probably due to the stupendous amounts of sunshine, could you post the stats for the suncshine this month????

[Weather-history]

Really, it seemed to be warmer to me, probably due to the stupendous amounts of sunshine, could you post the stats for the suncshine this month????

http://www.climate-uk.com/index.html

CET: (Mar 1-31): 7.1°C (+0.7 degC)

E&W Rain: (Mar 1-31): 63.9mm ( 88 per cent)

E&W Sun: (Mar 1-31): 165.2hr (146 per cent)

According to Philip, the second half was below average.