March CET

[summer blizzard]

Given the upcoming synoptics this week, we should expect Hadley to be above Manley, they were already above by 0.1C, so i would say they will be 0.3C above by next weekend.

[Snowly does it]

Given the upcoming synoptics this week, we should expect Hadley to be above Manley, they were already above by 0.1C, so i would say they will be 0.3C above by next weekend.

Hadley and Manley were identical on the 7th SB - 7.2

We are not under an inversion are we? Don't see why Hadley will differ from Manley, if anything its higher stations might record lower minima?

[kold weather]

Warm day today, the first real warm day of the year for some parts of England, top temps of 16-17C with mins of 3-5c are really gonig to massivly up the CET, esp as the temps look very similar for tommorow and I dare say possibly the next 2-4 days as well may not be that much cooler. Should easily be looking at 8C by the end of this week...

However there are real signs of quite a strong northerly push after that from the models which combined with the lack of cloud I suspect could lead to a fair dip in the CET if the cooler set-up can hold on in some way for more then a couple of days, esp given that the set-up after any northerly would involve aniother HP coming across but with cooler upper air should mean maxes not as high asd this week and mins lower.

Anything between 7-8.5C looks a good bet now, I'd go for 7.5C being fairly close.

[Snowly does it]

I'm not sure about 'massively' upping the CET Kold, I don't think many places outside the SE will see 16 after today so the maxima average is likely to be 13-14 and the minima 3-5. Most days therefore wouldn't drastically increase the CET, I think 8 by the weekend is possible/probable though

[Nick H]

Hadley and Manley were identical on the 7th SB - 7.2

We are not under an inversion are we? Don't see why Hadley will differ from Manley, if anything its higher stations might record lower minima?

Higher stations tend to record higher minima than lower stations, up to a certain altitude. The converse is true for daytime maxima, with lower stations recording higher maxima than higher stations.

[Snowly does it]

Higher stations tend to record higher minima than lower stations, up to a certain altitude. The converse is true for daytime maxima, with lower stations recording higher maxima than higher stations.

gotcha, thanks for that Nick

[Joneseye]

The current N-W UK tracker figure for March 2007 is: 7.8°C

(difference from average March CET is 1.5°C)

CET: (Mar 1-10): 7.3°C (+1.7 degC)

E&W Sun: (Mar 1-10): 57.0hr (181 per cent)

© Philip Eden (If you wish to use or copy these figures, please acknowledge the source)

A fair gap between the Tracker and Climate UK, although the latter does not have the data for 11th March yet, which will no doubt see this figure rise.

Looking like another few days of warmth in the CET zone will up the value before the prospects of some cooler weather next weekend... but that is a long way off!

[Weather-history]

Marches that had a cooler second half compared to the first half since 1870

1870, 1872, 1876, 1878, 1879, 1880, 1881, 1882, 1883, 1888, 1893, 1899, 1900

1901, 1902, 1906, 1910, 1911, 1913, 1914, 1915, 1919, 1922, 1926, 1933, 1939

1941, 1952, 1957, 1959, 1960, 1961, 1966, 1967, 1975, 1977, 1978, 1979, 1980

1984, 1985, 1989, 1991, 1994, 2000

Looks a possibility, it could happen again

[kold weather]

I'll be very suprise dif it doesn't happen again to be honest looking at tonights models, if the 12z GFS is right could be one of the coldest second half of March for a good 6 years.

[Snowyowl9]

Very interesting facts there Mr Data.

I`ll just use 1975 as an eg from mild to cold.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119750306.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119750328.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119750328.gif

One year I don`t remember too young.

So a cold 2nd half to March has happened 11 times in my lifetime with 2000 being the last so a 12th is looking rather likely and due for it and my 7.5c will be too high.

[Optimus Prime]

CET upto the 13th is 7.6c according to climate-uk. I think it'll rise slightly today, around 0.1c. I should think by the middle of the month it'll be around 7.8c. Or 2.0c above average.

According to the latest GFS run the period 15th-20th comes out with an average off 5.2c. 0.8c below the average for that period.

And so by the 20th the CET should be around 6.7c. So a below average month looks possible (I'd give it 35% at present)

[Snowly does it]

CET upto the 13th is 7.6c according to climate-uk. I think it'll rise slightly today, around 0.1c. I should think by the middle of the month it'll be around 7.8c. Or 2.0c above average.

According to the latest GFS run the period 15th-20th comes out with an average off 5.2c. 0.8c below the average for that period.

And so by the 20th the CET should be around 6.7c. So a below average month looks possible (I'd give it 35% at present)

Yes if the cold holds OP, I fear however (as a below average preferrer) that a very mild end to March with HP dominating looks on after our cold spell.

[Snowly does it]

Hadley running at 7.7 to the 12th so Hadley is 0.1 ahead of Manley at this stage.

[Weather-history]

Another possibilty is second half of March colder than first half of January

Occasions when second half of March was colder than first half of January since 1870

1870, 1873, 1875, 1877, 1878, 1883, 1888, 1898, 1899, 1900, 1906, 1915, 1916, 1919

1922, 1926, 1930, 1932, 1937, 1969, 1975, 1976, 1983, 1984, 1996

[Snowly does it]

Manley unchanged today. However it is now rounded up to the current 7.6 whereas it was unroudned yesterday so in effect a small drop yesterday.

[Anti-Mild]

I know this never works but if the 12z GFS is accurate we could expect a rolling CET of around 6.5c by the 22nd, which is a bit more reasonable.

AM

[Duncan McAlister]

I know this never works but if the 12z GFS is accurate we could expect a rolling CET of around 6.5c by the 22nd, which is a bit more reasonable.

AM

And with a possible 'cool' easterly, could the month just sneak below 6c - lower than Dec, Jan and Feb?

[kold weather]

Just a shot at that Duncan but I think we'll probably just have a little too much to do for that. Still the GFS is progging some very cold mins for the time of year for a good number of nights. This will cause the CET to fall so fast i suspect even at this time in the month.

[Optimus Prime]

I know this never works but if the 12z GFS is accurate we could expect a rolling CET of around 6.5c by the 22nd, which is a bit more reasonable.

AM

It's actually proven to be very accurate.

Still the period from 15th-20th has an average temperature of 5.4c. So still the CET should be around 6.7c by the 20th. After that some very low night time minima could dip to below 6.0c.

[Joneseye]

The current N-W UK tracker figure for March 2007 is: 7.89°C

(difference from average March CET is 1.59°C)

CET: (Mar 1-15): 7.6°C (+1.8 degC)

E&W Rain: (Mar 1-15): 44.2mm (125 per cent)

E&W Sun: (Mar 1-15): 82.8hr (171 per cent)

© Philip Eden (If you wish to use or copy these figures, please acknowledge the source)

Plenty of speculation as to the impact of the up and coming weather on the CET. I have a feeling that we will lose a degree or so off the current value by month end...

Interesting that the rainfall hasn't budged a great deal from the first 5 or so days and looks more like the average.

[kold weather]

OP, its going top be intresting but that easterly flow is going toscrew us up I suspect with higher cloud cover its gouing to hold up cloud temps, that 1.6C drop is in the main is going to have to be done by this northerly I suspect, temps may wlel be closer to average once that easterly kicks in, esp given there is very little cold air in the flow at that point.

Saying that there is a shot at that, previous sustained cold sells have seen drops like that, would be quite amazing if its colder then any other winter month, a real chance of that!!!

[Snowly does it]

Link to Phillip's site

Front page has 7.6 still to the 17th but the averages on the graph page would actually indicate 7.7 to the 17th. Last night may have just about retained the minima in the CET enough to ensure no real movement today but then its a falling meter for the next few days - An avergae of 3.5 between now and the end of Wednesday would generate a 6.9 return to the 21st as an example.

[Optimus Prime]

Well the period tonight till the 31st does look fairly cold for the England CET average at just 4.4c. So if we get the temperatures predicted by the GFS the CET will come in at 6.2c by the 31st. So only just milder then average.

[Snowly does it]

Well the period tonight till the 31st does look fairly cold for the England CET average at just 4.4c. So if we get the temperatures predicted by the GFS the CET will come in at 6.2c by the 31st. So only just milder then average.

Cooler OP, the 71-00 is 6.3, slightly milder than the 61-90 average though.

[Lettucing Gutted]

If it continues in the same vein of continuous low pressure after low pressure and summer is a washout then perhaps we are with a chance of a below average month.

Depressions simply passing over us from west to east don't necessarily gibe us months below the 30 year rolling C.E.T because the cloud cover will keep high nighttime temperatures high for example August 2006. For a truly cold month we need proper Northwesterlies ridging all the down from Greenland or some Northerlies and Northeasterlies from the North Pole.