March CET

[Joneseye]

CET: (Mar 1-19): 7.4°C (+1.4 degC) c) Philip Eden (If you wish to use or copy these figures, please acknowledge the source)

The current N-W UK tracker figure for March 2007 is: 7.59°C

(difference from average March CET is 1.29°C)

Not much of a dent so far from this northerly spell of weather, I have a suspicion that overnight lows tonight in the CET might make more of a impression!

[Joneseye]

Here is the most recent list. Remember, there are penalties for entering late

5.6: Kentish Man

5.7: Pudsey

5.8: PersianPaladin

5.8: Summer Blizzard

5.8: pottyprof

5.9: The Eye In The Sky

6.1: SteveB

6.1: AtlanticFlameThrower ** 1 Day Late Entry **

6.2: Chris L

6.2: osmposm

6.3: Mezzacyclone

6.3: Shugee

6.4: StormChaser1

6.5: Gallow Glass

6.5: Mark Bayley

6.5: Norrance

6.6: The Calm Before the Storm

6.7: David Snow

6.7: Flagpole

6.8: acbrixton

6.8: ChillyMilly

6.8: Duncan Mcalister

6.8: Matty M

6.8: Mr Data

6.8: Red Raven

6.8: Terminal Moraine

6.8: Winston

6.9: Cheeky Monkey

6.9: James Weather Jones

6.9: Snow-Man 2006

6.9: Stormmanic

6.9: Stratos Ferric

6.9: Theresnoway

6.9: VillagePlank

7.0: Optimus Prime

7.1: Blast From The Past

7.1: Megamoonflake

7.1: Stargazer

7.2: Bottesford

7.2: Dancc

7.2: phil n.warks

7.3: Glacier Point

7.3: Great Plum

7.3: Kold

7.3: Paul B

7.3: Thundery wintry showers

7.4: Reef

7.4: The Penguin

7.4: Stulondon

7.5: Beng

7.5: Joneseye

7.5: Snowyowl9

7.5: The PIT

7.6: Cymru

7.6: Mark H

7.6: Slipknotsam

7.6: Snowmaiden

7.6: WindSwept

7.7: Don

7.8: Anti-Mild

7.8: JohnaAcc

7.8: Roger Smith

7.9: Magpie

7.9: SunDog

7.9: UkMoose

8.0: Somerset Squall

8.0: Vince

8.1: Lesta Snow

8.2: Catch My Drift

8.3: West Is Best

8.4: Davehsug

8.5: jimmyay

8.7: Gray-Wolf

8.8: mk13

8.8: Paul Carfoot

9.0: eddie

9.0: Rollo

9.0: Stephen Prudence

10.0: Craig Evans

Rgds, John

A reminder of the last updated list to save some searching time...

[Joneseye]

The current N-W UK tracker figure for March 2007 is: 7.3°C (difference from average March CET is 1°C)

CET: (Mar 1-20): 7.2°C (+1.2 degC)

This equates to a 0.2 degree frop for Manley and a 0.29 drop for the tracker. The low temperatures from this morning will make another dent in the CET come tomorrow, but the prospects from there on are very much for milder weather. This cold spell certainly hasn't made that much of an impression on the CET, I am hoping to be close to the mark again this month.

Regards

Ian

ps. forgot to mention the CET comes from Philip Eden's Climate UK site.

Edited March 21, 2007 by Joneseye

[Paul Sherman]

Where is my Guess ?? 7.7c guessed about 3 weeks ago ??

Can u add me too the list please

Paul S

[Joneseye]

Where is my Guess ?? 7.7c guessed about 3 weeks ago ??

Can u add me too the list please

Paul S

Hi Paul! Quite a good guess too! I am not sure we have an official custodian of the list, I went back to find the latest one I could find!

Regards

Ian

[Kentish Man]

According to Philip Eden todays CET is down to 6.9C.

It looks like it might end up at around this level or maybe a little higher by the end of the month with nothing particularly warm or cold forecast in the next 9 days. So that puts paid to my optimistic prediction (for cold)!

[Stratos Ferric]

According to Philip Eden todays CET is down to 6.9C.

It looks like it might end up at around this level or maybe a little higher by the end of the month with nothing particularly warm or cold forecast in the next 9 days. So that puts paid to my optimistic prediction (for cold)!

If I don't fall asleep first / bmi don't lose any more baggage / it isn't too windy to land / I don't get pulled by the police on the way back from LBA... I may well finally get around this evening to an extrapolation to the end of the month; before that, however, it's looking like 7-7.5 may well be the range. These spring SE'lys are tough to call: if we get clear air then frosts are very possible given the likely dryness of the air; that will help hold things a tad lower. On the other hand clear days and slow moving air can bring surprising warmth. Cloud moderates both effects and probably is net neutral over and above this.

April may prove interesting, and I wouldn't rule out a repeat of the long (cool?) dry spring we had three or four years back.

[JohnAcc]

Here is the final list with the late entries added for Mar-07 predictions.

5.6: Kentish Man

5.7: Pudsey

5.8: PersianPaladin

5.8: pottyprof

5.8: Summer Blizzard

5.9: The Eye In The Sky

6.1: AtlanticFlameThrower **** Late Entry 1 day ***

6.1: SteveB

6.2: Chris L

6.2: osmposm

6.3: Mezzacyclone

6.3: Shugee

6.4: StormChaser1

6.5: Gallow Glass

6.5: Mark Bayley

6.5: Norrance

6.6: The Calm Before the Storm

6.7: David Snow

6.7: Flagpole

6.8: acbrixton

6.8: ChillyMilly

6.8: Duncan Mcalister

6.8: Matty M

6.8: Mr Data

6.8: Red Raven

6.8: Terminal Moraine

6.8: Winston

6.9: Cheeky Monkey

6.9: James Weather Jones

6.9: Snow-Man 2006

6.9: Stormmanic

6.9: Stratos Ferric

6.9: Theresnoway

6.9: VillagePlank

7.0: Optimus Prime

7.1: Blast From The Past

7.1: Megamoonflake

7.1: Stargazer

7.2: Bottesford

7.2: Dancc

7.2: phil n.warks

7.3: Glacier Point

7.3: Great Plum

7.3: Kold

7.3: Paul B

7.3: Thundery wintry showers

7.4: Reef

7.4: Stulondon

7.4: The Penguin

7.5: Beng

7.5: Joneseye

7.5: Snowyowl9

7.5: The PIT

7.6: Cymru

7.6: Mark H

7.6: Slipknotsam

7.6: Snowmaiden

7.6: WindSwept

7.7: Don

7.7: Paul Sherman **** Late Entry 2 days ***

7.8: Anti-Mild

7.8: JohnaAcc

7.8: Roger Smith

7.9: Magpie

7.9: SunDog

7.9: UkMoose

8.0: Somerset Squall

8.0: Vince

8.1: Lesta Snow

8.1: Parmenides **** Late Entry 2 days ***

8.2: Catch My Drift

8.3: West Is Best

8.4: Davehsug

8.5: jimmyay

8.7: Gray-Wolf

8.8: mk13

8.8: Paul Carfoot

9.0: eddie

9.0: Rollo

9.0: Stephen Prudence

10.0: Craig Evans

Rgds, John

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

April may prove interesting, and I wouldn't rule out a repeat of the long (cool?) dry spring we had three or four years back.

SF

Agreed with that. I will go with this spring being the coolest for many years, I mentioned on the model thread. My 7.1 will be close but for me sub 7 will be closer.

BFTP

[Joneseye]

CET: (Mar 1-22): 6.8°C (+0.7 degC)

© Philip Eden (If you wish to use or copy these figures, please acknowledge the source)

The current N-W UK tracker figure for March 2007 is: 7.09°C

(difference from average March CET is 0.79°C)

[Summer of 95]

So even after being well above average for the first half, with just a brief cold snap, it's still got a good chance of being colder than January- the last time this happened looks like 1976 (although 1996 was close); amazing!

[Bottesford]

So even after being well above average for the first half, with just a brief cold snap, it's still got a good chance of being colder than January- the last time this happened looks like 1976 (although 1996 was close); amazing!

Now if the rest of the year follows 1976....

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Hi Fred

I personally very much hope this coolness is the years trend too.

Tamara

Hi Tamara....ditto

fred

[kold weather]

I'm very happy at my punt of 7.3C right now, the CEt drop should now be just about over given the night time mins will be really held up over the next 7 days or so given the amount of cloud from the easterly, i think its very likely to come out close to 7-7.5C range now, still a chance for it to come out below 7C but I think given the warm-up thats progged thats looking a little bit of a long shot right now.

[Stratos Ferric]

Hi Fred

I agree with you - I personally very much hope this coolness is the years trend too.

Tamara

Well, it's not happened yet, and lest we forget, March is still running comfortably above mean, and save for a Damasclesean turnaround is not going to come in anything other than well above par either. April, admittedly, is another month.

I'm very happy at my punt of 7.3C right now, the CEt drop should now be just about over given the night time mins will be really held up over the next 7 days or so given the amount of cloud from the easterly, i think its very likely to come out close to 7-7.5C range now, still a chance for it to come out below 7C but I think given the warm-up thats progged thats looking a little bit of a long shot right now.

It may well stay roughly where it is: as today is showing, E'lys off the N Sea at this time of year are anything but warm. The MO projected 10-11 for Yorks today: it's struggling to get much above 5C up here. It's not beyond the bounds of possibility that we end up still dropping slightly over the coming days if things stay like this, moreso should we get any overnight clearances.

[kold weather]

Indeed daytime maxes may wlel end up below average for the next few days, though note the 850hpa ove rthe SE are still at -5C and we still have a pretrty cold flow present, thats going to be replaced come next Monday, then we'll see a proper warm-up.

As for the the next few days, I think what you say will make all the difference:

should we get any overnight clearances.

I'll be suprised if there is much in the way opf cloud clearences, ther emay be some tonight in the west but bar from that this has all the signs of a cloudy easterly IMO, that is really going to hold the tmeps up well, so even if daytime temps of 9-12C (most likely after today IMO) mins ar eprogged to hold up around 4-6C, and lest us forghet these are only GFS predicitions, I'm willing to bet there are at least 3 days wher eit under-does the temps by a 1C in the daily CET which will make a difference in the end.

I think there may not be much of a rise but equally I'll be suprised f the CET ends up lower then it is now, in fact i'll be very very suprised.

Edited March 23, 2007 by kold weather

[The PIT]

I would reckon it would drop further today. Not as warm as the Met predicted with the temps falling back again from 11 O'clock. It's now down to 4.7C and I can see clearer skies moving in so a frost is a possibility.

Of course again we're coming towards the end of the month so it will really have to warm up to make any massive changes in the CET. My 7.5C is looking to high again.

[kold weather]

It may well fall today PIT, though its worth noting that the west has been seeing tmeps of 10-12C today in terms of maxes, though yes the east has been colder then progged because the front has come trough slightly stronger and quicker then progged it appears.

By the way ther eis a clearance in the cloud, but its fairly localised right now to the east coast, not going to be much of a cool-down in the south tohugh as ther eis still a lot of cloud about.

Just a quick calculation shows the CEt comes out at 6.78C, whethe ror not its rounded up or down I haven't a clue but the daily CET isn't that much below average, the west buffers it up a little.

[Snowly does it]

7-7.5 is the range for me - above average but not excessively and perhaps below the 10 year mean (7.1), that would be the first month since August to slip under its recent mean were it to happen which says a lot!

[Stratos Ferric]

A secong consecutive day of temperatures struggling in the East compared to forecast. Ths cool North Sea / low cloud combo is serving to pegs temps back, and the double whammy is evening clearance allowing some cooling.

My projection to the month's end is below: looking like low 7s is the now the likeliest outturn, but it will swing either side of this depending on how much of a southerly component we get early next week, and then how warm it gets in any sunshine. This late in the month, though, we already need 2 extra degrees per day to force a 0.1C rise in CET over and above the running mean: shifting 6.9 to 7.0 thus requires a daily outturn of around 9C, requiring a split of, say, 13-5 or 14-4: we're miles away from that at present. Warming rather than cooling is likeliest, but any change is likely to be slow and slight.

[The PIT]

Hopefully SF people will read your post and not ask why hasn't CET gone up by a few degrees when they've had a beautiful day.

[Stratos Ferric]

Hopefully SF people will read your post and not ask why hasn't CET gone up by a few degrees when they've had a beautiful day.

I'm assuming you've had the same rubbish we've had up here, though it was bright this morning. Looking at WX at 15h much of the UK W of Wales and Avon was at 6-8C and cloudy.

[johnholmes]

A secong consecutive day of temperatures struggling in the East compared to forecast. Ths cool North Sea / low cloud combo is serving to pegs temps back, and the double whammy is evening clearance allowing some cooling.

My projection to the month's end is below: looking like low 7s is the now the likeliest outturn, but it will swing either side of this depending on how much of a southerly component we get early next week, and then how warm it gets in any sunshine. This late in the month, though, we already need 2 extra degrees per day to force a 0.1C rise in CET over and above the running mean: shifting 6.9 to 7.0 thus requires a daily outturn of around 9C, requiring a split of, say, 13-5 or 14-4: we're miles away from that at present. Warming rather than cooling is likeliest, but any change is likely to be slow and slight.

I find it quite amusing that forecasters, some 12 years after I hung my boots up so to speak, still make the same mistake.

Winds from the east, be it ne, east or a touch south of east, and from Essex north the day of sunshine or at least predicted sunny spells, often fails to deliver.

Quite why forecasts are often so wide of the mark for 24 hours ahead with satellites and 6 hourly upper winds does rather mistify me.

John

[The PIT]

I find it quite amusing that forecasters, some 12 years after I hung my boots up so to speak, still make the same mistake.

Winds from the east, be it ne, east or a touch south of east, and from Essex north the day of sunshine or at least predicted sunny spells, often fails to deliver.

Quite why forecasts are often so wide of the mark for 24 hours ahead with satellites and 6 hourly upper winds does rather mistify me.

John

I can remember one of two times in the past when the forecaster put up the radar chart and said it's been an awful cloudy day when we've had clear skies all day and the opposite has also happened when they've said Sunny all day. I can't understand it myself. Living fairly high up we've got very good views so we see can quite a large area of the sky.

Edited March 24, 2007 by The PIT

[kold weather]

Indeed John the models really don't handle the cloud cover rom these easterlies very well.

however equally I think the GFs at least rather over-does moisture when it comes to flows from say the SE. for what its worth i think there is a outside chance of a 18C on either Tuesday-Wednesday but equally mins do look a little below average as well so things could well equal out in the end.

I'd guess either 6.9-7.0C is the most likely. Looking at the models the temps may well drop a little again right at the end, it all depends on how warm the temps do get, the 12z GFS for example show a depression affecting the south and really supressuing tmeps on the 30th and 31st.

Ah well, 0.5C out of the range is going to better then the net weather average anyway and my best punt yet, I'd be happy enough with that!