March CET

[parmenides3]

Oops! Late again. 8.1C :)p

[Paul Sherman]

Damn, I am late for the 1st time, Pleeeeeassse let me off Lol

7.7c

Paul Sherman

[Stratos Ferric]

I have two methods which i use, the usual one, and the one in my forecast went for 9.3C, which would be the warmest on record, however another method which i have developed and seems to be more accurate, calls for 5.8C, i have decided to back that method, though if we are anywhere near 9C at the end of the month, i will back my traditional methodfor April, which calls for a CET of 10.6C.

SB,

to say there is clear water between your various punts is to say that there is clear water between Australia and Brazil.

latecomers, SB included, will be subjetct to the usual accumulating penalties.

I may update the trophy this w/e, if my bag ever rejoins me from London. Quite how a bag gets lost between the bmi desk and a plane 100 yards distant is beyond me. It was snowing hard at about 4000' above London last night.

All of you moaning about the lack of winter should fly more often. It's here, it's just that it's 4000' or so up! The jet (PF not Airbus 319) has made for some amusing flying moments this week as well.

[Stratos Ferric]

Great lists, JA & SB: thank you. From a situation where nobody seemed to want to do it, we now have people fighting for the privilege! That strikes me as extremely good news.

Perhaps we should have a spinoff competion to see who can get the list in first after midnight - correctly formatted and without errors, of course?!?

Ossie

I second that: many hands...and all that...

[summer blizzard]

SB,

to say there is clear water between your various punts is to say that there is clear water between Australia and Brazil.

latecomers, SB included, will be subjetct to the usual accumulating penalties.

I got it in before the 1st.

[summer blizzard]

Net Weather has the current temperature as 6.5C, and Metcheck has the current temperature as 6.3C.

[Snowly does it]

Phillip has updated Manley to the 3rd at 6.4

See Here

Edited March 4, 2007 by snowmaiden

[WBSH]

I have voted for an above average March because, like any other month it is above average!

However I have decided against voting "much" above average because officially March isn't a winter month... and the winter months are usually the "much" above average!

I have also decided not to take a guess at the CET for March as I am still learning about the CET for the spring, summer and autumn months. You really do never stop learning!

Incidentally has anyone got the official CET for Dec 05 Jan 06 and Feb 06 ??

[parmenides3]

SF: is my February 'punt' on your list, yet? Wouldn't want to miss out: for the first time I was within about a degree!

:)P

[VillagePlank]

Where is the 'High Score' table for CET predictions? I got last month spot-on, I think, so want to see where I stand, now

[Snowly does it]

Incidentally has anyone got the official CET for Dec 05 Jan 06 and Feb 06 ??

4.4, 4.3, 3.7 on Hadley

4.6, 4.3, 3.9 on Manley

[Stratos Ferric]

Where is the 'High Score' table for CET predictions? I got last month spot-on, I think, so want to see where I stand, now :lol:

VP, it takes about three hours to churn all the numbers, not including the time others put in to compiling the lists in the first place. We cannot issue a monthly summary until we're happy we've got a close to final result for the actual CET value for the month.

My life does not start and finish with servicing N-W, and whilst noting your self-interested enthusiasm you should rest assured that, like drivers tooting at the back of a queue when they cannot see whether or not there is legitimate cause for the hold-up, all the parping that the likes of you produce adds nothing by way of value add to the efforts of those producing the thing you're waiting for, and if anything just serves to wind me up.

[Stratos Ferric]

And here they are...

CET_trophy___Feb_provisional.xls

WiB has lived up to his moniker, and emerged as the seasonal winer for winter. Accolades to John Acc, Joneseye and the seemingly ubiquitous Scorcher for strong performances as well.

Scorcher and WiB have also managed the best "least worst" performances, never being more than 1.3C out with their predictions.

SP sits top of the heap to date (not winter winner because he hasn't enteres all three months, on which note those entrants with ony one projection to date will drop out of the trophy if there are any further "blobs").

Big movers this month include Beng and SB: beng has risen from nnth bottom last month to top of the pile this: SB has moved from bottom to 53rd bottom (around 35th) this. Otherwise most people continue to plough the same old furrow. Overall the average error for all entrants is 1.7C, slightly less than the "error" for winter on its own, so although we are punting very slightly milder than 30 year baseline, we are on the whole punting nowhere near mild enough.

Four of our number have three entries and not a single accuracy point to their name, and of those one has a "best worst" of 4.2C: I'd get back to the wallpaper Dave!

[VillagePlank]

VP, it takes about three hours to churn all the numbers, not including the time others put in to compiling the lists in the first place. We cannot issue a monthly summary until we're happy we've got a close to final result for the actual CET value for the month.

My life does not start and finish with servicing N-W, and whilst noting your self-interested enthusiasm you should rest assured that, like drivers tooting at the back of a queue when they cannot see whether or not there is legitimate cause for the hold-up, all the parping that the likes of you produce adds nothing by way of value add to the efforts of those producing the thing you're waiting for, and if anything just serves to wind me up.

Yes, I admit it freely, I was hoping for some self-indulgence this afternoon. I think your response is a little *cough* curt, though. Hangover? Perhaps I deserve it, I don't know, but the intention you imply certainly was not meant. I'd assumed that the only task was to enter the numbers against peoples names given the huge processing potential that your favourite spreadsheet is capable of.

Want me to write some Excel macros to automate it?

[ukmoose]

SF thanks very much for doing all the donkey work to produce these rather splendid spreadsheets.

It really is very much appreciated - perhaps we should show our appreciation by putting some money on your tab at your local hostelry? Got to be worth a pint from everyone at least!

Thanks also to the rest of you guys who have posted the charts to keep us up to date.

Great idea this - helps to alleviate the disappointment of our progressively uninspiring weather!!

:lol: Moose

[VillagePlank]

Excellent job by all those involved once again!

SF - I am serious about those macros, too, so if you'd like to automate some of it - please feel free to PM me - I'd love to help out and reduce some of those three hours!

[tinybill]

10.0 with plenty of rain still!!!!!!!!!!!

[Stratos Ferric]

Yes, I admit it freely, I was hoping for some self-indulgence this afternoon. I think your response is a little *cough* curt, though. Hangover? Perhaps I deserve it, I don't know, but the intention you imply certainly was not meant. I'd assumed that the only task was to enter the numbers against peoples names given the huge processing potential that your favourite spreadsheet is capable of.

Want me to write some Excel macros to automate it?

VP,

don't read it as curt, just read it as "the results always appear as soon as practicable and no amount of hectoring is going to speed the process up".

The process won't automate easily, and by the time you've written the code for the various processes my view is that you'd have used more time than it takes to process for the year, hence why I haven't written any code myself.

In sequence:

1 - strip the monthly entries back to name and number: this canot be automated completely because of varitions in names, typos, and, in around half the months of the year, the potential for both 4 and 5 digit critical values.

2 - arrange the entries against the current long list: again, cannot be fully automated due to variations.

3 - produce values for error, average error, and no. of entries.

4 - produce positioning sequence for current month.

5 - produce values for accuracy.

6 - produce points for the various categories.

(3-6 are basic cut and paste routines for which formulae are written and just require redirection with each new added data set).

[J10]

I know my guess of 5.5 c was poor but it appears that have been omitted from the score table (Post 184) February 2007, as was Senior ridge (Post 186).

[Stratos Ferric]

I know my guess of 5.5 c was poor but it appears that have been omitted from the score table (Post 184) February 2007, as was Senior ridge (Post 186).

There were many far worse than both of those. I'll make sure this gets corrected, though forgive me if it's not high on my list of priorities. Also, a hearfelt plea to all: can we try to check for omissions when the list is pulled together at the start of the month. It takes about a minute to check and recut the list then (or at any time up until the end of the month). Once i've issued the results a re-cut takes anything up to an hour.

[J10]

There were many far worse than both of those. I'll make sure this gets corrected, though forgive me if it's not high on my list of priorities. Also, a hearfelt plea to all: can we try to check for omissions when the list is pulled together at the start of the month. It takes about a minute to check and recut the list then (or at any time up until the end of the month). Once i've issued the results a re-cut takes anything up to an hour.

Fair enough I can understand that.

[Joneseye]

The current N-W UK tracker figure for March 2007 is: 7.16°C

(difference from average March CET is 0.86°C)

CET: (Mar 1- 5): 6.5°C (+1.1 degC) c) Philip Eden (If you wish to use or copy these figures, please acknowledge the source)

Quite a reasonable difference between the NetWeather Tracker and the CET from Philip Eden's site.

[Snowly does it]

The current N-W UK tracker figure for March 2007 is: 7.16°C

(difference from average March CET is 0.86°C)

CET: (Mar 1- 5): 6.5°C (+1.1 degC) c) Philip Eden (If you wish to use or copy these figures, please acknowledge the source)

Quite a reasonable difference between the NetWeather Tracker and the CET from Philip Eden's site.

Yes I was just going to post that myself! Whilst last night will have nudged Phillips figures up quite considerably, I can't see it catching the tracker, even a CET of 11 for today and last night would give around 7.2 and thats without todays tracker rise. We had a similar situation in reverse last month when the tracker fell away far more sharply than Manley before the figures started to coalesce mid month.

[summer blizzard]

It could indicate that Hadley is running above the Manley CET.

[North-Easterly Blast]

This is a question for Kevin Bradshaw;

Out of interest, have there been many years when March has a colder second half than the first half? It is certainly possible, but I would have expected it to be relatively rare.

It certainly has to be said, looking at the fact that the CET will be above 7*C after today, at only the 6th, it is already difficult to see this March's CET ending up anything but well into the 7s by the month's end, like the Marches that were so common during the 1990s and during the beginning of this decade.

I would be grateful and hope Kevin can quote the years that had a colder second half of March than the first half, and the CETs for each half of the month respectively?

I do not know myself, but I do not think that we have had a March with a colder second half than the first since at least the mid 1980s. The only example I can think of was in 1985, when a relatively mild spell from the 7th to 10th gave way to much colder conditions with a particularly cold spell from around the 15th to 29th. March 1984 was also cold from around the 11th to the month's end. After the very cold February of 1983 had passed, March 1983 was generally mild up to the 20th, but colder weather lasted from the 21st to the month's end with snow at times in some places, presaging the cold April, so 1983, 1984 and 1985 is, I would say, the last occasions that March had a colder second half than the first half.