March CET

[Weather-history]

This is a question for Kevin Bradshaw;

Out of interest, have there been many years when March has a colder second half than the first half? It is certainly possible, but I would have expected it to be relatively rare.

It certainly has to be said, looking at the fact that the CET will be above 7*C after today, at only the 6th, it is already difficult to see this March's CET ending up anything but well into the 7s by the month's end, like the Marches that were so common during the 1990s and during the beginning of this decade.

I would be grateful and hope Kevin can quote the years that had a colder second half of March than the first half, and the CETs for each half of the month respectively?

I do not know myself, but I do not think that we have had a March with a colder second half than the first since at least the mid 1980s. The only example I can think of was in 1985, when a relatively mild spell from the 7th to 10th gave way to much colder conditions with a particularly cold spell from around the 15th to 29th. March 1984 was also cold from around the 11th to the month's end. After the very cold February of 1983 had passed, March 1983 was generally mild up to the 20th, but colder weather lasted from the 21st to the month's end with snow at times in some places, presaging the cold April, so 1983, 1984 and 1985 is, I would say, the last occasions that March had a colder second half than the first half.

Marches that had a cooler second half compared to the first half since 1870

1870, 1872, 1876, 1878, 1879, 1880, 1881, 1882, 1883, 1888, 1893, 1899, 1900

1901, 1902, 1906, 1910, 1911, 1913, 1914, 1915, 1919, 1922, 1926, 1933, 1939

1941, 1952, 1957, 1959, 1960, 1961, 1966, 1967, 1975, 1977, 1978, 1979, 1980

1984, 1985, 1989, 1991, 1994, 2000

The real talking about is these rainfall totals

E&W Rain: (Mar 1- 6): 45.8mm (324 per cent)

http://www.climate-uk.com/index.html

Already wetter than 6 Marches since 1990

[Joneseye]

Yes I was just going to post that myself! Whilst last night will have nudged Phillips figures up quite considerably, I can't see it catching the tracker, even a CET of 11 for today and last night would give around 7.2 and thats without todays tracker rise. We had a similar situation in reverse last month when the tracker fell away far more sharply than Manley before the figures started to coalesce mid month.

Today sees slightly less disparity in the results:

CET: (Mar 1- 6): 7.1°C (+1.7 degC)

E&W Rain: (Mar 1- 6): 45.8mm (324 per cent)

E&W Sun: (Mar 1- 6): 28.1hr (154 per cent)

c) Philip Eden (If you wish to use or copy these figures, please acknowledge the source)

The current N-W UK tracker figure for March 2007 is: 7.38°C

(difference from average March CET is 1.08°C)

As Mr Data has already pointed out we have had exceptional rainfall already this month. It is also interesting to note the trend for above average temperatures, above average sunshine and above average temperatures continues...

[Stratos Ferric]

This is a question for Kevin Bradshaw;

Out of interest, have there been many years when March has a colder second half than the first half? It is certainly possible, but I would have expected it to be relatively rare.

It certainly has to be said, looking at the fact that the CET will be above 7*C after today, at only the 6th, it is already difficult to see this March's CET ending up anything but well into the 7s by the month's end, like the Marches that were so common during the 1990s and during the beginning of this decade.

...

A couple of thoughts: 1 - As Mr D has shown, the occurrence is about 1:3.

2 - In any case, the fist half v second half argument is not strictly valid applied to data only up to the 6th. We have had a number of months over the past year or so during which the first 5-6 days proved to be anomalous, and the remainder of the month was one long corrrection: Feb just gone, and last November, were two good examples.

If we're still at 7-8C mid month I think the contention that we must end up >7C will have much more face validity than it does at present.

[summer blizzard]

Remember that song, things can only get better..

In the case of this month, my thoughts are, things can only get warmer..

I really should of stuck with 9.3C..

How many penalty points would i get if i changed it now.

[Matty M]

Just shows hasn't actually felt that warm this month so far but just after 6 days of the coldest period of the Month were over a celcius warmer than the average.... Something just isn't right, beginning to question if we will ever see a below average month ............ again?... compared to the 30 year CET....

It really is questionable, it seems impossible to get below average when it should be as possible to get a colder month than a warmer month but that just is far from the case anymore..

Of course April will probably be the coldest month for yonks but at the moment, i am deeply concerned

[Snowly does it]

Remember that song, things can only get better..

In the case of this month, my thoughts are, things can only get warmer..

I really should of stuck with 9.3C..

How many penalty points would i get if i changed it now.

Already needing 9.8-9.9 to secure a return of 9.3 SB, not out of the question but only one or maybe 2 of the next 7 days looks likely to return at that level, and beyond that who knows?!

As for below average months... yes they do seem a distant memory, last August was the last one, indeed none of the months since have been under the 10 year mean let alone the 30 year mean - Feb and Nov were closest at 0.5 above the recent (10 year) mean with March currently running on Manley bang on its 10 year mean and 0.8 above its 30 year mean. Probably no real rise today as the tracker has returned to the same level it was at this time yesterday after a cooler night with perhaps a few cooler nights relatively speaking to come.

[Great Plum]

Amazing that the rainfall and sunshine are well above average so far!

[Joneseye]

The current N-W UK tracker figure for March 2007 is: 7.49°C

(difference from average March CET is 1.19°C)

CET: (Mar 1- : 7.2°C (+1.7 degC)

E&W Rain: (Mar 1- : 40.5mm (215 per cent)

E&W Sun: (Mar 1- : 42.0hr (169 per cent)

c) Philip Eden (If you wish to use or copy these figures, please acknowledge the source)

EDIT: not quite sure how the smiley's appeared.. :unsure:

Edited March 9, 2007 by Joneseye

[Mad Murdoch]

surly temps have been above average in some places already!

[Joneseye]

surly temps have been above average in some places already!

They have to the tune of 1.7C above the 30 year average...

[Mad Murdoch]

They have to the tune of 1.7C above the 30 year average...

really! thats a lot.

do u think this will be a ongoing trend for all the months to follow?

[Joneseye]

really! thats a lot.

do u think this will be a ongoing trend for all the months to follow?

We have been on a trend of above average months for quite some time. Last March was the last below average month I believe, although August was fairly close to average.

As for how long it will last, who knows?! A lot depends on how active the atlantic is over the next 6 months. If it continues in the same vein of continuous low pressure after low pressure and summer is a washout then perhaps we are with a chance of a below average month. My hunch is that this will not happen and we will have a similar summer to last year, without being record breaking, but that is just my hunch..

Ian

[Mad Murdoch]

We have been on a trend of above average months for quite some time. Last March was the last below average month I believe, although August was fairly close to average.

As for how long it will last, who knows?! A lot depends on how active the atlantic is over the next 6 months. If it continues in the same vein of continuous low pressure after low pressure and summer is a washout then perhaps we are with a chance of a below average month. My hunch is that this will not happen and we will have a similar summer to last year, without being record breaking, but that is just my hunch..

Ian

thank you for the reply, i am still learning and all information helping me on my way. :unsure:

[reef]

The provisional Hadley CET value to the 7th is now on the site at 7.2°C (+2.4°C).

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Another very mild start to the month.

[kold weather]

A very mild start to this March and at least for the next few days temps are only going to go up, should be close to 8C by Monday but this is dependant on how cool any nights get but max temps between 14-16C will really ramp up those temps.

After that and I think a very slow moderation back towards 7.5C is likely but days still look very much above average, though night temps look close to average if not a little below.

[Snowly does it]

really! thats a lot.

do u think this will be a ongoing trend for all the months to follow?

February, March and August last month were below average, all the others were above, and iun the main by quite a distance.

Looks likely we are set to see another above average month this March but I would expect one or two months this year to come in below the 1971-2000 average.

The output is somewhat closer to the last 10 years average but still around a half a degree up most recent months or more.

[Thundery wintry showers]

In Cleadon August was actually above average, albeit almost entirely due to high minima; here, the last below average month was March 2006, regardless of whether 1961-90 or 1971-2000 averages are being used. We also sneaked fractionally below average in December 2005 here.

I remember that August 2006 was only average by measure of the CET although some regions were indeed below the 1971-2000 average.

[Snowly does it]

I remember that August 2006 was only average by measure of the CET although some regions were indeed below the 1971-2000 average.

No, August was 16.1 against the 71-00 mean of 16.2, it was a below average month measured against the CET (just barely though!)

[Bottesford]

Pretty rubbish last August was - remember being cold in a t-shirt in London. Not what you want from summertime! Unless, of course, you pin your hopes on a cold winter by wishing for a rubbish summer... But that doesn't actually work - it just means a rubbish summer. I've said 'rubbish' 3 times in that statement - eek.

[Andy Bown]

My current mean for March (after 9 maxxes and 9 mins) is exactly 8c.

I see no reason for it to change in the coming week, in fact it is more likely to rise with maxxes of 13-15c and mins of 3-6c.

[Snowly does it]

Manley to the 9th remains an unrounded 7.2

Link to Phillip's Site

Thats 3 days of non-movement. HP in charge and showing consistency. Spring has sprung.

[florent76]

More and more of models direct themselves towards the formation of a blocking anticyclonic on the Atlantic little before the vernal equinox. That could be worth us a cooling rather sudden of a more or less spring weather since several weeks, even if the conditions were often depressionary. This tendency is all the more to supervise that it is well the same one which appears in the tendencies that we even established in the long run…

http://www.science-climat.info/previsions/tendance_6mois.php

If that is confirmed, will remain to carry out the precision adjustments: I would not be astonished to see passing from the runs much more extreme than than it will be really observed, us promising strong frosts and even snow. There can be a share of truth inside it, but like always, reality will be probably much more moderate.

Wait and see!

Florent.

[Snowly does it]

Phillip has Manley at 7.3 today (unrounded) so depsite the very mild maxima, the minima are restricting the rise somewhat at the moment

Link to Phillip's Site

Looking at GFS, a 7 day period of 9 degree averages would get us to 8 flat, thta looks reasonable from the GFS projections with a cold spell to possibly follow... I think the CET will be back to where it is now (a degree up on average and around the 10 year average) by the 23rd or so. The last week of the month would then determine if we come in under 7 or over 8!

BTW - to get back to 7.3 by the 23rd assuming 8 by the 17th one the poss cold spell hits requires 5 days of CET 5 degree average, not a particuarlaly penetrating cold spell but thats what the models suggest anyway.

Edited March 11, 2007 by snowmaiden

[kold weather]

I'm really quite suprised that we are only at 7.3C, given yesterdays maxes were impressive, mind you i suspect your right that the mins do have something to answer for. This looks like it may well be the case again for the next 4-7 days or so.

[WBSH]

It looks like the low night minima is what is keeping the March CET relatively sane so far!

It's a reverse to when you get a mostly cool overcast summer month that ends up being average or even above. It has nothing to with the maximum temperature, the cloud that keeps the temperature higher at night is what gives off the susprising figures. August 2006 and summer 2004 as examples.