July CET

[opplevelse]

I looked this up some time ago. The 3 sites are Rothamsted, Malvern and Stoneyhurst all equally weighted.

Further info:

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/ParkerH...T_IJOC_2005.pdf

c

Thanks, interesting paper

[BARRY]

15.6c for me

[chionomaniac]

Of course, not all the stations operate all the time!

So they must guesstimate some of the data!

I would frankly be concerned about some of the variability in these records, and how representative the current data can be of the Central England Temperatures! I hope their weighting is thorough.

Something certainly appears to have gone haywire there! The CET this year would be around 0ºC judging by that!

Opplevelse you're welcome.

[Chris Knight]

Something certainly appears to have gone haywire there! The CET this year would be around 0ºC judging by that!

Opplevelse you're welcome.

I guess the plots are anomalies from an earlier mean period, rather than real data. The popup legend on the HadCET mean page says:

"CET for core and backup stations"

Edited June 25, 2008 by Chris Knight

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

With Arctic Sea Ice once again approaching record lows expect temperatures to go through the roof...

20C

They didn't last year so where has that come from?

BFTP

[Weather-history]

One thing to note, since the start of the run of poor summers ending in "8" ie from 1888, there has only been one July that has breeched the 16.0C mark for the CET and that was 1928 with 16.1

1888 13.7

1898 15.3

1908 15.8

1918 15.4

1928 16.1

1938 15.2

1948 15.8

1958 15.9

1968 15.0

1978 14.8

1988 14.8

1998 15.5

I'm going for 16.0

[Eugene]

With Arctic Sea Ice once again approaching record lows expect temperatures to go through the roof...

20C

You still need hot airmasses to dominate July for temps to go through the roof as you say, the pattern we have had this June if it dominates July will still give us a near to below average July.

Arctic sea ice levels has nothing to do with our weather in the summer.

I think you will need a bigger miracle than you forecasting a near average month than for your 20C CET forecast to come off this July.

[Mark Bayley]

16.8c for me please

[Stargazer]

I'm going for close to average - 16.6.

[SP1986]

You still need hot airmasses to dominate July for temps to go through the roof as you say, the pattern we have had this June if it dominates July will still give us a near to below average July.

Arctic sea ice levels has nothing to do with our weather in the summer.

I think you will need a bigger miracle than you forecasting a near average month than for your 20C CET forecast to come off this July.

Not sure they have nothing to do with our weather Eugene. I imagine any escaping cooler wather into the Atlantic is causing the pattern, ie, where the cooler water meets the warmer Atlantic water low pressure is being spawned, and unfortunately seems to be arrowing over the north of the UK. It probably therefore has some indirect effect.

[Lettucing Gutted]

Not sure they have nothing to do with our weather Eugene. I imagine any escaping cooler water into the Atlantic is causing the pattern, ie, where the cooler water meets the warmer Atlantic water low pressure is being spawned, and unfortunately seems to be arrowing over the north of the UK. It probably therefore has some indirect effect.

I think the indirect effect is that the northerly tracking lows build compensating deep warm highs over Europe which enhances warm air advection into the UK (an enhanced Ferrel Cell).

[tinybill]

well at the moment about 24 if July goes the same way as June i cant see 30 getting hit this year at the moment

[summer blizzard]

14.8C: Snowmaiden

15C: Gavin P

15C: Summer Blizzard

15.5C: Memories Of 63

15.4C: Stephen Prudence

15.4C: Steve B

15.5C: Fozi999

15.6C: Barry

15.7C: Chionomaniac

15.9C: Na Damanta Sam

15.9C: Optimus Prime

15.9C: Duncan McAlister

16C: Richard dx7

16C: Mr Data

16.1C: Norrance

16.2C: Snowsure

16.4C: The Pit

16.4C: Kold Weather

16.6C: Osmposm

16.6C: Stargazer

16.7C: Grab My Grauples

16.8C: Mark Bayley

16.9C: Timmead

17.3C: Rollo

17.4C: David Snow

17.5C: Sunlover

17.7C: Shuggee

17.8C: James M

18C: Mike W

18.2C: Scorcher

18.5C: Jimm Yay

19.8C: Tornado Alley

20C: Craig Evans

21C: Vince

The 1971-2000 average for July is 16.5C...

The coldest July on record was 13.4C in 1816, 3.1C below average...

The hottest July on record was 19.7C in 2006, 3.2C above average...

I have upped my prediction to 15C, 1.5C below average!

[eddie]

16.5C is my wild guess.

[Snowyowl9]

I was going to go for average but I`ll go for 16.3c instead as it`s not taken and July has a better chance of being below average to other months.

[ghrud]

I'm going to go for 15.9

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

16.8C for me

kthxbye

[Jonnie G]

I will go for 15.8C pelase.

[Terminal Moraine]

I can't imagine July being as cold as I'd like it to be so I'll stick the pin on 15.8c

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

16.2C

[sundog]

I think July will be below average ,so i will go for 15.6c

[Anti-Mild]

17.0c for me please!

[Stu_London]

16.3C please

[Roger J Smith]

18.4 C ... quite a warm month with the odd spell of real heat, especially towards the end. Could be about 16.5 to mid-month then heat pushing in from France which could have almost as hot a month as in 2006. The linkage will not be as strong at first, as there is still a lingering cyclonic influence keeping the flow westerly a lot of the time, a rather warm and muggy westerly but that can only reach daily means around 17 C at best. B)

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Winds mainly from 'North' in first part of the month. Chance of real summer 3rd week on but all in all close to average......16.6c

BFTP