MetO Weather warning watch

[Bartlett Low]

Well the latest and greatest from the Met Office

There is a high risk of a severe weather event affecting parts of Scotland and the northern half of England. Snow spreading from the west on Wednesday evening will become persistent and heavy at times by the early hours of Thursday morning, eventually clearing away eastwards from England by Thursday afternoon and from most of Scotland by the evening. On low lying ground there is the potential for 2 to 5 cm of snow to accumulate, while on ground above about 150 metres accumulations of 10 to 20 cm are expected, with blizzard conditions and considerable drifting in strong winds. This is likely to cause disruption to travel networks, particularly across higher level routes.

This warning is likely to be superceded by Flash warnings.

Recent years History is against this will it happen this time????

Do you mean that in a similar set up in recent years we have seen half an hour of snow quickly turning to heavy rain??

[paul tall]

No. It'll be much lighter precipitation than expected and a damp squib. We've certainly been here before.

Hope I'm wrong though :lol:

[The PIT]

Do you mean that in a similar set up in recent years we have seen half an hour of snow quickly turning to heavy rain??

Wow that much Snow. Yup that sort of setup. Fantastic warnings Beeb presenters jumping up and down and you wake up next day look at radar and the fronts decayed and those few flakes of snow are already turning to rain.

Used to get good snow from these setups but not any more. I'm already looking att he warm sector that seems to be grwoing.

[The PIT]

Got to give the warning a mark down as 1cm is a lot less than 10cm to 20cm and we're above the marker. Over all the Snow was fairly light bar one short heavy spell which gave the cover. So less prec than expected or more likely it turned to rain much earlier than expected which made the differance. The 06:45 am forecast said snow intensifying when it already had turned to rain.

[Richard Taylor]

Seems Scotland didn't get as much snow as forecast by the warning. Even E.Scotland, where they were warning of heavy snow all day, doesn't seem to have materialized.

[Terminal Moraine]

Well, once again the warning was justified here with a little over 10cm of fresh snow and drifting in the strong S wind.

Road conditions were very poor early this morning but I must admit, looking into the valleys after sunrise, there was no lying snow at all below about 180m so the people living there must have wondered what all the fuss was about.

[The PIT]

Well, once again the warning was justified here with a little over 10cm of fresh snow and drifting in the strong S wind.

Road conditions were very poor early this morning but I must admit, looking into the valleys after sunrise, there was no lying snow at all below about 180m so the people living there must have wondered what all the fuss was about.

Conditions couldn't have been too bad as a work colleague got from Bakewell to Sheffield without any trouble. He normally stays off if he see's as much as snowflake. He went via Grindleford and Fox House. Made a comment about bad drivers but said the conditions weren't that bad.

[paul tall]

They said 10-20 cm on high ground and 2-5cm on low ground in North East England.

Lets look at the evidence -

Reports of 15-18cm from upper Teesdale, 21cm in Copley (both high ground) - check.

Here (low ground 300ft), 7cm level lying snow (and I'm very stringent would be reported as 12cm in other places) - check

Shildon (not low, not high, 450-500ft) I was there this evening, no ruler of course, but visually there was a lot more than home, certainly a fair bit deeper. I'd estimate at least 12cm, and thats this evening after some thaw.

So, they got low ground right, they got high ground right, and certainly the middling ground had snowfall between the two figures.

10/10 Met Office.

[david16]

Wow that much Snow. Yup that sort of setup. Fantastic warnings Beeb presenters jumping up and down and you wake up next day look at radar and the fronts decayed and those few flakes of snow are already turning to rain.

Used to get good snow from these setups but not any more. I'm already looking att he warm sector that seems to be grwoing.

Been there so many times before. Not that it's a surprise to me now, and living in Forth Valley where the map showed a wonderful shade of white bang over where I live about 3am, only rain fell. I half expected it to go pearshaped in my area before it was supposed to happen.

Obviously lower lying area, but the weather warning from BBC/Met Office was for snow accumalations of 2 to 5cm even at low levels. Make of it what you will. It seems like the low-middle ground (the 100 to 200mtr ASL range) in some areas that once had an outside chance of a significant heavy prolonged snowfall at one time from similar setups of the past have no chance now i.e. the lowest possible ground ASL for such snowfall has increased significantly. Relying here on it's an unusual setup or the rare Northeasterly to bring such prolonged heavy snowfall here.

And it was ideal temperatures for it for days leading up to last night, icy slippery ground with whatever little snow previously fell on the snow/dry boundary. As soon as the precipitation arrived last night the temperatures rose and it fell as rain, and most of the icy stuff that was there disappeared.

How did the BBC not pick up on the warm sector that was always going to totally ruin it for the lower lying areas considering that they forecasted snow at all levels in many areas after all. Should the BBC not be held accountable now when it goes so horribly wrong away from higher levels in many places. They have the technology now surely to get such small details correct compared to the 1980's. For them to say heavy snow for your area like it was with 100% confidence, but it's turned out to be torrential rain instead that they never forecast at all is totally unforgivable. It was a big letdown for all of those anticipated the heavy snowfall on the forecast to happen and missed out.

Edited December 4, 2008 by david16

[Snowyowl9]

The mild sector was shown to miss Wales earlier in the day and go further south but the later UKMO chart showed it coming right over Wales at about 6am ish so +1 upper air meant rain it was extremely marginal,turned to rain here just before 6.

Edited December 4, 2008 by Snowyowl9

[maidstone weather]

How did the BBC not pick up on the warm sector that was always going to totally ruin it for the lower lying areas considering that they forecasted snow at all levels in many areas after all. Should the BBC not be held accountable now when it goes so horribly wrong away from higher levels in many places. They have the technology now surely to get such small details correct compared to the 1980's. For them to say heavy snow for your area like it was with 100% confidence, but it's turned out to be torrential rain instead that they never forecast at all is totally unforgivable. It was a big letdown for all of those anticipated the heavy snowfall on the forecast to happen and missed out.

They appeared to have got the warm sector spot on on Sun 23rd Nov down here, the band of rain was expected to start as snow and go back to rain, which it did.

[The watcher]

I think alot of people will find that any warnings made will be hyped up a bit, it usually means a more localised event but if a red warning is in force it would herald a more widespread event rather than a local.

[stricklands1984]

under what conditions woulda red warning appear? wind, snow etc

[The PIT]

under what conditions woulda red warning appear? wind, snow etc

The failed crisp packet remover last year????

[James M]

The only time I've seen a red warning was some very heavy rain in Lincolnshire, I can't remember exactly when it was though.

[maidstone weather]

The only time I've seen a red warning was some very heavy rain in Lincolnshire, I can't remember exactly when it was though.

Thursday 7th August 2008:

Slow moving torrential thunderstorms will give further accumulations of 15 to 25mm with locally more than 40mm within a 3 hour period.

Normally the warnings are for more than 30mm of rain in a 3 hour period, so i guess the extra 10mm makes it a severe event?

Edited December 5, 2008 by maidstone weather

[stricklands1984]

how much snow would be needed for a red coloured warning?

[Nick L]

For a red there needs to be a "High risk of extreme weather" and there would be "High risk of major damage to infrastructure and the environment. Casualties are possible". I don't think snow in this country would cause anything like that these days. Unless the Day After Tomorrow happens which it won't. I think the red warning is mainly meant for severe Atlantic storms during the Winter and Autumn (ie. a 1987 storm would probably have a red warning).

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/gui...r_warnings.html << The full Warning key

Edited December 6, 2008 by nick2702

[stricklands1984]

thanks what kind of windspeeds would generate a red warning?

[maidstone weather]

For a red there needs to be a "High risk of extreme weather" and there would be "High risk of major damage to infrastructure and the environment. Casualties are possible". I don't think snow in this country would cause anything like that these days. Unless the Day After Tomorrow happens which it won't. I think the red warning is mainly meant for severe Atlantic storms during the Winter and Autumn (ie. a 1987 storm would probably have a red warning).

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/gui...r_warnings.html << The full Warning key

I read on the BBC Weather site one of the daily weather reports for the 2nd March 2005, purely because i know back then we had the best snow for a decade, and it was really limited to Kent, Sussex and Essex. There were 30cm snow drifts on top of the North Downs, and it said the Met Office issued an emergency weather warning - i would presume that an "emergency" weather warning back then would be the equivalent of an "extreme weather warning" on the new scale these days?

[The PIT]

Mmm another one

Rain will turn increasingly to snow and will become locally heavy above around 200 m during Saturday evening and into the early hours of Sunday. Snow accumulations of 2 to 5 cm are expected generally, perhaps with up to 10 cm in some spots. At lower levels only slight accumulations of wet snow are expected. The public are advised to take extra care and refer to the Highways Agency for further advice regarding traffic disruption on motorways and trunk roads.

Temps are going to need to fall a bit for this to happen though. Plus the Rains got to move back into the region.

[azores92]

Mmm another one

Rain will turn increasingly to snow and will become locally heavy above around 200 m during Saturday evening and into the early hours of Sunday. Snow accumulations of 2 to 5 cm are expected generally, perhaps with up to 10 cm in some spots. At lower levels only slight accumulations of wet snow are expected. The public are advised to take extra care and refer to the Highways Agency for further advice regarding traffic disruption on motorways and trunk roads.

Temps are going to need to fall a bit for this to happen though. Plus the Rains got to move back into the region.

unless you live somewhere like high neb or ilkley moor i wouldnt be getting too excited!

[The PIT]

unless you live somewhere like high neb or ilkley moor i wouldnt be getting too excited!

Yup Hopefully people won't get too excited by the Net weather Radar as this is miles out for Snow or Sleet this year.

[The PIT]

Big zippo so another flop here dunno if TM got any.

[Terminal Moraine]

Big zippo so another flop here dunno if TM got any.

No, nothing here, Pit. I went to be just after midnight and there was light rain falling with a temp' of 3.0c and 100% humidity.

Further light rain throughout the early hours, with thick fog, so even though the temp' fell back slowly I doubt if there was even any sleet.