Snow Watch: Wales (cymru) And The South West

[Dartmoor_Matt]

The NW homepage is showing a 92% chance of snow for dartmoor tmrw... really? :lol:

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In Feb 2007 we had a very short lived snow event which may turn out to be a bit better than this one.

Tonight's Faxes are a upgrade with us remaining in Sub 528 air at lunchtime and this may linger for a bit longer, very good charts for us.

I remember that, a pretty decent amount of snow for down here, all melted by 3PM :lol:

[kaz]

I remember that, a pretty decent amount of snow for down here, all melted by 3PM :lol:

i remember that it came from the NW was so funny as a gritter was going around barnstaple and right behind them was a road sweeper :lol: .. Think im going to track down all the gritters and disable them .. they spoil all the fun :lol: JK

NW give me 100% for snow on monday im gunner frame it.

kaz

[Snowyowl9]

In Feb 2007 we had a very short lived snow event which may turn out to be a bit better than this one.

Tonight's Faxes are a upgrade with us remaining in Sub 528 air at lunchtime and this may linger for a bit longer, very good charts for us.

Yes that was the best snowfall for many years.

The 8th was the coldest with fairly powdery snow with drifting and 3 inches that day, with a moderate/fresh east wind max of 0c

Those fax charts are great.

[BARRY]

first time ever that the net weather for my area has shown 100% SNOW GOBSMACKED

[Cymro]

Same here with the 100% risk, Jakone what makes you think things will be not as good as the 8th of the feb 2007 ?

If i remeber lightly it was wet slopy snow even though it accumilated and then it thawed during the night only for rain the following day to turn to snow and carry on for 8 hours flat but only 4 inches accumilation for the amount of snow that fell was poor? The ph temps were around -4 -3 that day. Dam line i think was 530, 533? It was around there? So i personally think the chances are better this time than then almost definatly.

[Devon-Nelly]

Im struggling to contain my excitement, after watching being progged on the models since Thursday. I don't think i've ever seen warnings for so much snow for where i live, even when i lived in Blackpool!

Am i right in thinking we have probally one of the best chances of some persistant snow on mon/tues as that front moves across? its all looking very good

Also in reagrds to 7th Feb 2007, we got absolutly nothing here from that, just heavy rain and a max of 5c.

Edited January 31, 2009 by Devon-Nelly

[CLH the red dragon]

I'm on the 4:30 am to London from Bridgend on Monday morning. Coming back mid afternoon.

Looks to be an eventful trip!

[Jackfrost]

Didn't you have much snow from the Feb 2007 event in West Wales?

It snowed non-stop through the 8th and again through the 9th here. Ended up with over a foot of the stuff.

And was that Ross (Weatherboi/God) I saw a page back?

Just like old times!

[Cymro]

Didn't you have much snow from the Feb 2007 event in West Wales?

It snowed non-stop through the 8th and again through the 9th here. Ended up with over a foot of the stuff.

And was that Ross (Weatherboi/God) I saw a page back?

Just like old times!

Yes but it didnt last at all.

[Marcus_surfer]

Yes but it didnt last at all.

We had alot of snowfall here on the 8th Feb 07 upto 5-6cm fell but Brecon had 10-15cm

[Cymro]

We had alot of snowfall here on the 8th Feb 07 upto 5-6cm fell but Brecon had 10-15cm

We had around 4 inches i think was 13cm but that's poor ive seen snowfalls in excess of 10 inches here and im only 15, Febuary 2004, March 2006, January 2002 etc

I don't rate last 2007 snows as with the best at all the came within 2 days and nothing was evident on the 3rd day . a dusting this january lasted a week that couldnt last 48 hours wats the point in a load of snow if it just melts away? Ye sure thing it was heavy, yes it was prolonged and the accumilation was massive but it didn't last so it was pointless in my mind.

[J10]

Same here with the 100% risk, Jakone what makes you think things will be not as good as the 8th of the feb 2007 ?

If i remeber lightly it was wet slopy snow even though it accumilated and then it thawed during the night only for rain the following day to turn to snow and carry on for 8 hours flat but only 4 inches accumilation for the amount of snow that fell was poor? The ph temps were around -4 -3 that day. Dam line i think was 530, 533? It was around there? So i personally think the chances are better this time than then almost definatly.

We had closer to 6 inches here that day being slightly further southand being on top of a hill, which froze quite quickly after sunset, personally I don't think that we will get that this time , however total permission to rub it in if I'm wrong , (actually I'd be pleased if I was.)

In terms of longevity of the now it may last longer this time that in 2007.

Didn't you have much snow from the Feb 2007 event in West Wales?

It snowed non-stop through the 8th and again through the 9th here. Ended up with over a foot of the stuff.

And was that Ross (Weatherboi/God) I saw a page back?

Just like old times!

Indeed, I'll be doing the daily BBC Wales weather summaries next.

[Cymro]

We had closer to 6 inches here that day being slightly further south , whihc froze quite quickly after sunset, personally I don't think that we will get that this time ,however total permission to rub it in if I'm wrong , (actually I'd be pleased if I was.)

In terms of longevity of the now it may last longer this time that in 2007.

Indeed, I'll be doing the daily BBC Wales weather summaries next.

Haha watch out Derek Jackone is about hehe and he speaks better Cymraeg than you Your sure to get the job:L

[KTtom]

Jan 1982, not sure even if Jackone remembers that! having said that its a different situation as to what is approaching. Anyway good to see the ECM continuing to introduce a northerly component to procedings from mid week, this is the best chance for disruptive snow for us westerners

as for Feb 2007, not a flake here on the coast but there was a good covering only 5 miles inland.

Edited January 31, 2009 by KTtom

[J10]

Haha watch out Derek Jackone is about hehe and he speaks better Cymraeg than you Your sure to get the job:L

On here I used to do daily summaries of the BBC Wales weather forecast, http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=24958, so that's what I mean by that.

As for 1982 I just about remember that, very vaguely (about 7 at the time), there were one foot drifts, and there is a really old photo of me in a red toy pedal bus, which I intend to keep hidden.

[KTtom]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Dublin_ens.png

Another bit of good news is that for us westerners the GFS operational was a little on the warm side for the middle of next week, maybe ECM has it spot on?

Edited January 31, 2009 by KTtom

[phil47uk]

Please someone tell me..West Dorset will NOT get any snow..I need that like a bloody hole in the head where I live right up in hills and the sticks. Well! It hasn't snowed here for years now, so I'm expecting it not to. ( I sincerely hope ).

I watched the BBC..Sky..etc, and they all say something different.. Lets' just hope they are wrong as usual..LOL

Edited January 31, 2009 by phil47uk

[Snowyowl9]

February 2007 could of ended up so much better for lasting cold/snow,the greenland high wasn`t up to the mark.

The day before the snow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120070207.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00220070207.gif

What a beauty.

Colder tonight 1.4c last night 0.0c now with a cold east wind.

[Mark]

Please someone tell me..West Dorset will NOT get any snow..I need that like a bloody hole in the head where I live right up in hills and the sticks. Well! It hasn't snowed here for years now, so I'm expecting it not to. ( I sincerely hope ).

I watched the BBC..Sky..etc, and they all say something different.. Lets' just hope they are wrong as usual..LOL

Noooooo.......

If you didn't get any in West Dorset then I probably wouldn't get any in Yeovil

Please say you're kidding!

Any snow would be brilliant - for me anyway.

[J10]

Taken from the Model Discussion thread, ECM says SNOW.

Updated ECM at the 3 critical timespans-

12pm Mon- -5c line off the French Coast-

PPN just off the French Coast-

6pm Monday- -5c line from the Wash to the IOW- the SE corner ranging from -5c West London to Around -1c on the East & Kent Coast- Triple point somewhere around London-

PPN through the UK- ALL SNOW thats leading edge back to Kent- ( thats 3-6 hours of continuous snowfall)

00z Midnight Tues- 0c isotherm NOT touching the UK, but thicknesses probably around ~ 530 DAM-

West of London between -2c & -5c uppers- East of London -3c down to -1C

PPN charts- Snow for everyone - Sleet & MAYBE RAIN for east Kent- Suffolk, East Norfolk, Lincs- up to humber-

this the best assessment I can give at the moment-

best accumulating depth- 7-10 Inches from the Convective Stuff & the NW part of the triple point- Somewhere CLOSE to London-

S

Another post

Based on ECM, UKM and GEM 12z..

My sweet spots for significant accumulations in excess of 100mm of lying snow, draw a line from Ludlow SE towards Salisbury Plain. That brings in Forest of Dean, NE Somerset, parts of Wiltshire, Dorset and north Hampshire. All points west look highly favoured. Marginal east of this line also looks good although overall totals will suffer a little from higher DPs.

The trending even up to the last minute continues to be to shift the centre of the triple point north and east however. Expect further shifts as this developing system proves to be very difficult to model given its unusual evolution.

Remember 100mm = 4 inches.

[Nick L]

http://212.100.247.145/gfsimages/gfs.20090...8/72/ukprec.png

A little further east and there COULD be a south west snow fest.

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Remember 100mm = 4 inches.

Just did the line drawing that GP suggested, and for once it looks like im too far east

[Rlt122]

Hiya jackfrost :blush: Yes... I am alive & well. But politics rules my life now as opposed to meterology lol.

I still keep a keen eye on the weather whenever I can - esp. when it's turning cold & snowy (or equally hot & sunny!)

Maesteg's been a bit crap this winter in terms of snow - had a bit of a roof-top dusting early one morning last week, but only just visible to the naked eye haha!

[mrchoosy]

please be happy if you get snow this time round everyone - even if it doesnt stick.

We only had sleet last month and I was made up with that. Last snow of any note was 3 or 4 years ago on the top of the Blackdown hills - as we have missed out on previous events. Think 4 or 5 months before that was a decent plume shot with a wonderful lightning show overnight that lasted a couple of hours.