Watching The Channel Low

[Craigers]

Just add that if the forecasts/models are different tomorrow morning then don't blame me. :lol:

Also even if we have excellent model agreement the eventual track could be different and a slight shift could mean the difference between heavy rain and 30cm of snow.

could this be the one for yorkshire??? gfs always had it on top or close to us!!!!

[Hot*Snow]

Just seen the 2330 BBC news 24 forecast with the gorgeous Laura Tobin and the ppn was'nt expected to get as far as the north-west, with the snowfall centering around the midlands for most of the evening/night.

[maidstone weather]

Thats pretty much what they said at 22:30, rain first then snow for the midlands :lol:

I can't see how people in the Midlands can moan about a rain to snow event rather than a full-blown snow event? You're still likely to see snow, which is more than I can say down here. In fact the precip will probably die before we get anything noteworthy with snow in it on Tuesday morning :lol:

[TEITS]

Just seen the 2330 BBC news 24 forecast with the gorgeous Laura Tobin and the ppn was'nt expected to get as far as the north-west, with the snowfall centering around the midlands for most of the evening/night.

If the trend continues then it may very well reach NW.

Personally I prefer Isobel Lang. There is something about here that just does it for me. :lol:

[Potent Gust]

If the trend continues then it may very well reach NW.

Personally I prefer Isobel Lang. There is something about here that just does it for me. :lol:

Yep, still looking good for the Midlands! I used to love Elizabeth Saary :lol: Anyone know what happened to her :lol:

[john mac]

Yep, still looking good for the Midlands! I used to love Elizabeth Saary :lol: Anyone know what happened to her :lol:

she got pregnant just like the rest of them

[frozencamel]

I can't see how people in the Midlands can moan about a rain to snow event rather than a full-blown snow event? You're still likely to see snow, which is more than I can say down here. In fact the precip will probably die before we get anything noteworthy with snow in it on Tuesday morning :lol:

Oh I'm not moaning. Just want it to be a huge dumping :lol:

I will post you some :lol:

[maidstone weather]

Oh I'm not moaning. Just want it to be a huge dumping :lol:

I will post you some :lol:

Don't we all :lol: Ta muchly :lol:

she got pregnant just like the rest of them

She was on BBC News Channel a couple of weeks ago, though only for a few late evening broadcasts

[Hot*Snow]

If the trend continues then it may very well reach NW.

Personally I prefer Isobel Lang. There is something about here that just does it for me. :lol:

That would be fantastic stuff if it were to come this far it really would, and I agree some trends are appearing to support this viewpoint. I do find it strange how the bbc have'nt picked up on this yet - although they are more likely to update tomorrow morning.

Nevertheless it makes great viewing, there have been some intersting discussions across the boards today.

Hot*Snow

[john mac]

one thing that is consitant is that the beeb have said all along that they dont know how far north the system will push, as did sky. As i have said before this one is going to come down to nowcasting

[Cookie]

well defiantly be something to keep an eye on this system.

[maidstone weather]

ESTOFEX have a Level 1 for the SE, majority of 'life threatening' weather will be in France and Belgium, but may graze the SE. Thunder is not likely, but strong damaging winds are main thread.

[ISAAC]

she got pregnant just like the rest of them

ROFL, by who? ok ignore that question.

I think TEITS is spot on and echoes what beeb, met office and netweather itself are forecasting. Rain to Snow is almost certianty for alot of the midlands maybe except Northern England (eg Manchester) if it gets that afr north

I am going for alot of slushy stuff here in Birmingham by Tuesday morning at the least, remember we are in a deep pool of cold air, uppers are marginal YES but lying snow will also have an effect on air temperatures and evaportive cooling. The most important factor that puts this aside to rest of the previous marginal events is the intensity of this precipitation. Very heavy Wet Snow has produced havoc in the past and theres no reason why it cant again!

[kold weather]

for those who think snow won't settle because of the damp surfaces should remember if the dew points drop towards freezing then providing it's heavy enough it could well settle, saw that happen on Friday eveing getting back into Essex, had rain for much of the day yet after an hour of snow ended up with a cm of snow.

[Cookie]

Latest shipping forecasts

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/marine...th&type=All

The general synopsis at 1800

Atlantic low 995, moving rapidly northeast, expected Sole 973 by 1800 Monday. Low Bailey 990, little change by same time

Plymouth

Gale warning 2151 Sun 08 Feb

Southwesterly gale force 8 expected soon, veering northwesterly severe gale force 9 later

Shipping forecast 0015 Mon 09 Feb

Wind Southerly 5, increasing 6 to gale 8, veering northwesterly 7 to severe gale 9, perhaps storm 10 later.

Sea State Rough becoming very rough.

Weather Occasional rain.

Visibility Moderate or poor.

Biscay

Gale warning 2151 Sun 08 Feb

Southwesterly storm force 10 expected later

Shipping forecast 0015 Mon 09 Feb

Wind Southwesterly 4, increasing gale 8 to storm 10, perhaps violent storm 11 later, veering westerly later.

Sea State Rough, becoming high or very high.

Weather Rain or squally showers.

Visibility Moderate or poor.

[Mammatus]

I must say tomorrow evening is looking extremely eventful for many in the south................

The winds look quite a feature on the western flank as the low exits off to our east. Some strong gales across southern and eastern England tuesday am. Gusts in the region of 65mph likely IMO.

Seasons

Edited February 9, 2009 by Seasons

[snowdrifter]

Just posted this on the model discussion thread but its more applicable here.

A trend is emerging from the models especially the UKMO to track this LP further N.

That image might actually help me sleep. :lol:

Ther WILL surprises of all kinds from this - just impossible to say. 'night all.

[Wales123098]

Hows my area going to do? I live on about 200meters above sea level in the rural hilly area in North Cardiff. 10miles inland

we still got covering. Laying snow for 7 days now.

[snowray]

Just a quick note for those who haven't seen it, we put together a short video today looking at the factors in play with regard to the storm:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=beta1;sess=

Just to say exellent video and a quality update, 10/10. Whens the next update, tomorrow morning would be ideal just to see if we are still on track. :lol:

Who's voice over is it, is it you Paul?

[BristolBaggie]

All this talk of the low going further north is totally rubbish. BBC radio 2 just said 90 per cent certain heavy snow for South Bristol up to North Birmingham. The GFS is wrong

Edited February 9, 2009 by BristolBaggie

[Cookie]

what I find a little worrying is people seem more bothered about the snow and less so about possibly very damaging winds

[Hot*Snow]

Fair point. Potentially very strong winds coupled with heavy precipitation - particuarly at sea could lead to some severe disruption, particarly out at sea.

I have a feeling a lot of ferry services will be cancelled, particuarly in the western channel.

[stoke weather watch]

A friend of mine has gone to Bilbao on a ferry from Portsmouth which left some 8 hours late on saturday and he called me up early and said it was a bit lumpy so im glad on not on that ship and its due to come back to portsmouth on Monday afternoon!!!!!!!

Good old Biscay!!!

Edited February 9, 2009 by stoke weather watch

[Hot*Snow]

The return back on Monday may possibly be cancelled, if not it will be very rough indeed.

Although the passenger operators on the UK-Spain routes (I think there are 3) usually put the bigger vessels out, designed to withstand the Bay of Biscay.

[FatherOf2]

A friend of mine has gone to Bilbao on a ferry from Portsmouth which left some 8 hours late on saturday and he called me up early and said it was a bit lumpy so im glad on not on that ship and its due to come back to portsmouth on Monday afternoon!!!!!!!

Good old Biscay!!!

When working as a navigation officer on a ship many times bigger than the P+O Bilboa ferry, crossing Biscay when going off watch in a gale, my wife lost her balance in the alleyway outside our cabin and slid across the width of the ship and back again and somehow I managed to grab her hand with my other holding the cabin door handle for my own balance. On the same crossing the table tennis tables in the gym turned to matchwood. Biscay can be very violent even for the large ships, your friend will be safe but may have a very bumpy ride.