Watching The Channel Low

[cartedj]

Can you verify this?

I get "rain snow" for Brize Norton

but "Overcast" for Little Rissington

here..........http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

Len

I'm working about 4 miles from Brize and it is just about sleet although mainly rain.

[snowdog]

Pouring with rain here on the South coast,doesn't seem to have stopped much since Friday night!Our garden is already like a swamp!

[stewfox]

UKMO 06z has the low less deep and further south which what I thought would happen a few days ago, always seems to go this way with these channel lows. If true this could mean the snow line could be further south than predicted, interesting times ahead.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ukm/2009020906/slp3.png 06z

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ukm/2009020900/slp4.png 00z

I have to say as the hours past Im getting more optimistic

temp drop to 1c now 1.7c , still light drizzle

[Albion Snowman]

Moderate rain for the last hour-temp of 3C. I just want the evening to come when it will turn to snow!

[TEITS]

Just watched the latest BBC forecast.

For starters the BBC remain certain the N extent will be the Midlands and considering the UKMO 06Z is slightly further S I would agree with this.

Now the general trend from the forecast is the rain along the S will continue but after dusk is when the action could begin. As this moves further N the BBC suggestion is this will turn to snow from around S midlands N. I still remain uncertain whether it will start as rain or fall as snow. However if it does turn to snow how quickly will this occur because for obvious reasons this will make a difference to snow depths.

Looking at the temps across S England and to the S of the M4 temps are generally around 4-6C. However N of the M4 temps are around 1-2C. Now im not expecting the temps across Wales/Midlands to rise much above 3-4C this afternoon. The problem is once darkness falls and the precip moves in this will lower the temps by around 1-2C which is why I remain confused. Im pretty confident much of the precip will turn to snow during the overnight period but its between 6pn-midnight where im clueless.

Maybe I should just leave it to the pros because at the end of the day im just a hardcore ramper who wants to see a blizzard. :o

[Kent Snow]

Continuous rainfall since 8AM and a lot more to come from looking at the radar. Interesting times ahead..

[Coast]

The front looks to be moving up to the Channel Islands, with MCS indicated off the Southern tip of Ireland:

[Cal2]

TEITS,

has the precip arrived with you yet?

[TEITS]

TEITS,

has the precip arrived with you yet?

No just freezing cold, dry, cloudy. :ph34r:

[The PIT]

Looking like it'll keep clear of here so we're having a nice sunny day. Discovered the meaning of snow blindness almost. Over the top you've fog sun through the fog and bright snow. Very difficult on the eyes and if I had miles of that I think I'd struggle.

Anyway keep safe in the storm and watch from here.

Edited February 9, 2009 by The PIT

[Dingwantssnow]

Just typical...i was getting excited lastnight as more and more showed the low further north and now at the last minute its more south and with it goes the prospects that the north west will be effected. Oh well looks like the south are in for some fun times...just wish i could have been there :ph34r:

[Cal2]

No just freezing cold, dry, cloudy. :ph34r:

Have you seen the updated BBC Beta version lately?, looks like you are going to do very well :ph34r: !!

[MKN]

I cant understand how the bbc continue to show the back edge being rain as it moves away rather than snow. think they have that wrong.

[len]

Just watched the latest BBC forecast.

................... considering the UKMO 06Z is slightly further S I would agree with this.............

I just queried this on the Midlands Snow Watch thread TEITS.

Trouble is I'm not master of uplaoding the various files.

Suffice to say the 6:00am analysis here http://www.metbrief.com/EGRR.html

shows the LP a little South and West of the Midday position (zero hours run) See pic (Won't upload! see Midlands snow watch post). But that is in accord with the forecasted trajectory and the six hour difference surely?

I would love to believe it has shifted South. Can you demonstrate this?

Len

Edited February 9, 2009 by len

[nick sussex]

This gives an idea where the mild sector is between the ukmo runs and how it has been shifted slightly further south.

00hrs

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cgi?...&hour=024hr

06hrs to the same time

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cgi?...&hour=018hr

I'd say a southwards correction of around 30-40 miles not much but for those areas on the margins this will make a little difference to how much snow falls. The main area to watch if you're stuck in the rain band and waiting for signs of when this could changeover to snow is the sw, this will be first region which sees the low clear eastwards.

Edited February 9, 2009 by nick sussex

[TEITS]

Have you seen the updated BBC Beta version lately?, looks like you are going to do very well !!

Lets hope so as its been frustrating missing much of the snow.

My only gripe is if the rain arrives this could thaw my lovely deep lying snow. I could technically have a blizzard tonight and yet have less lying snow in the morning compared to now.

[MKN]

This gives an idea where the mild sector is between the ukmo runs and how it has been shifted slightly further south.

00hrs

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cgi?...&hour=024hr

06hrs to the same time

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cgi?...&hour=018hr

I'd say a southwards correction of around 30-40 miles not much but for those areas on the margins this will make a little difference to how much snow falls. The main area to watch if you're stuck in the rain band and waiting for signs of when this could changeover to snow is the sw, this will be first region which sees the low clear eastwards.

I hope this helps make the difference clearer

[len]

Thanks for that Nick & ST

Len

[SnowJoke]

Currently raining here, temp hovering around 2.2'c. After raining yesterday afternoon before turning into a whiteout which lasted around 50 mins dropping 1.5cm of fresh snow, it's starting to melt even on grassed areas. Now only have 3-4 inches, lost 2 inches of snow since yesterday morning. Looking at the heavey rain forcast before any snow later in the night, I think it's all going to melt and end up as a washout sadly :lol:

Edited February 9, 2009 by SnowJoke

[nick sussex]

I hope this helps make the difference clearer

Thanks

I still haven't worked out how to do the more complicated things on the computer, I've only been using one for about 10 years! :lol:

[andy_leics22]

My snowmans going to die before the snow turns up :lol: He is a beaut aswell, never built a 6 foot snowman before and he's been standing there since Tuesday last week without melting at all, stupid rain!!!

[Iceni]

Lets hope so as its been frustrating missing much of the snow.

My only gripe is if the rain arrives this could thaw my lovely deep lying snow. I could technically have a blizzard tonight and yet have less lying snow in the morning compared to now. :lol:

Indeed. I'm getting to be a snow snob , the powdery stuff falling a week ago was as good as it gets, I'd rather it wasn't ruined by slushy wet rubbish. I'm right on the blue to light blue border so I'm resigned to seeing it disappearing by morning. Might get lucky of course.

As the low's tracking slightly more south, is that a trend or will it stay on course for the foreseeable?

[cyclonic happiness]

My snowmans going to die before the snow turns up He is a beaut aswell, never built a 6 foot snowman before and he's been standing there since Tuesday last week without melting at all, stupid rain!!!

now come on Andy! I gave you an umbrella to put over him. :lol:

Seriously, why don't you stick a black rubbish sack over him, then he'll last into the next stage of this cold spell?

Just started raining here, that very fine heavy rain that you seem to get before it turns to sleet.

[nick sussex]

My snowmans going to die before the snow turns up He is a beaut aswell, never built a 6 foot snowman before and he's been standing there since Tuesday last week without melting at all, stupid rain!!!

I'm sure theres a support group somewhere to help you get over it! :lol: At least you've managed to build a snowman some areas of the east and se haven't seen all that much snow so I doubt they'll be holding a candlelight vigil to mourn the passing of it! I'm sure you'll see some more snow so cheer up!

[Coast]

Although I have posted this forecast from ESTOFEX in the storm thread, its worth repeating their lengthy analysis for today here:

Storm Forecast

Valid: Mon 09 Feb 2009 06:00 to Tue 10 Feb 2009 06:00 UTC

Issued: Sun 08 Feb 2009 19:02

Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS

A low-amplitude streamline pattern has established over the eastern Atlantic and Europe. A flat upper trough over SE-Europe serves as a focus for widespread shower/thunderstorm activity while cold/stable air precludes deep convection over central/N/NE Europe. A depression over the extreme N-Bay of Biscay and the English Channel evolves rapidly under a favourable coupled jet configuration. Its track brings the feature over N-France during the night hours.

DISCUSSION

... France, Belgium, the Netherlands and extreme NW-Germany ...

** An intense and potential life threatening extratropical storm affects parts of France during the forecast period with damaging wind gusts. However, no long-lived/organised convection is expected during the passage of the strongest wind field at roughly 21Z onwards over W-central France. A broad, low threat level was issued, which does not reflect the non-convective wind gusts threat! Please refer to your national meteorological service for more detailed informations about the intense depression. **

A rapidly strengthening depression approaches the English Channel from the west at 18Z. GEM is still the outlier with the weakest solution while the rest now is centered around a depression, peaking out at around 970-975hPa over the W-English Channel. The depression starts its occlusion process already during the late evening hours, as the cold front approaches NW /W-France but a constricting warm sector should persist all the way to Belgium. The connection to a subtropical airmass west of Portugal truncates as the depression approaches NW France, so the warm sector over France constantly loses its warm/moist quality betimes, which is important regarding the instability release along the cold front later-on. The positive tilt of this feature at mid-levels also keeps the atmosphere quite warm with mid-level lapse rates barely outrun 6K/km. Despite all those obstructive reasons, we still expect an active cold front passage, starting at around 18Z over NW/W France and reaching Belgium after midnight. A strong surge of dry low-stratosphere air spreads eastnortheastwards above the NE-ward moving cold front. A strong vorticity lobe also overtakes the cold front and we think that the stage is set for enhanced convective activity along the cold front. A solid line of showers/thunderstorms, possibly evolving into a LEWP, accompanies the front with the most active part likely evolving over the northern parts of France and Belgium where forcing will be the best. The line weakens over central and east-central France during the night but re-activation over W-Switzerland and the Vosges during the morning hours is possible due to the topography and better LL moisture with a very isolated/short-lived thunderstorm risk. Winds at 850hPa rapidly increase to 30m/s along the cold front, so severe wind gusts are likely during its passage. LCLs of at or below 600m and LL shear up to 20m/s are present along the front and a QLCS-type spinup can't be ruled out, especially over far N-France, where some low-end 0-3km CAPE release is possible.

It looks like a sting jet event sets up over NW-/W-France at 21Z onwards, as an impressive 45m/s jet at 850hPa comes ashore. Widespread damaging wind gusts will occur, but deep convection is not likely in this rapidly descending branch of dry air and hence we don't reflect the serious wind threat in our final level decision.

The final area of thunderstorm chances will be just next to the depression's center, where deep convection is likely. The environment remains favourable to an isolated tornado event along the N-coast of France after midnight but the main hazard will be strong wind gusts and marginal hail.

A general thunderstorm area was not issued for the cold front, as lightning activity, if any, will be sparse. Hence just the track of the depression was included into this area. The same for W-Switzerland and the Vosges.

Edited February 9, 2009 by Coast