Watching The Channel Low

[Andy Bown]

Persistent cold rain (sometimes drizzle and now very heavy rain) since about 06.00, the only major change has been an increasing Easterly wind this afternoon.

[kold weather]

Models are making this situation just a little more marginal at the moment, with dew points just a tiny bit higher compared to last nights runs, which may make a difference in such a marginal set-up.

[wellington boot]

I think in the Oxford area we are destined to be rained on for a large part, if not all of the coming event. It has felt so warm today (unfortunately I don't have a thermom here), and it has been raining steadily for hours.

On the bright side there's still a fair amount of snow visible around the place, at least there is in north oxford, on lawns, driveways, cars, roofs and side roads.

[Coast]

I'm leaning towards this orange line through to the position at 00Z being the rough division between snow and no depending if you're North or South of it.

Edited February 9, 2009 by Coast

[Mondy]

12z GFS

There's no doubt France will suffer worst with the winds.

[Paul Sherman]

I'm leaning towards this orange line through to the position at 00Z being the rough division between snow and no depending if you're North or South of it.

YOU KNOW WHERE I LIVE :huh:

B)

[Lady Macbeth]

This must be really bad in France - just seen on the news that ALL Paris airports have closed due to the weather conditions.

[Timmytour]

Coast....that line is like an arrow through my Herts!

Edited February 9, 2009 by Timmytour

[andy_leics22]

Coast where I live is right on that Zig Zag line :lol:

Anyway I still don't expect any snowfall here, I am 75m ASL in the Midlands and all yesterday i was adament this would not be the "blizzards" event the BBC and met-O ramped up and I still hold that view.

[rubble79]

Coast....that line is like an arrow through my Herts!

Could I be any closer to that orange line lol :lol:

[stewfox]

I think in the Oxford area we are destined to be rained on for a large part, if not all of the coming event. It has felt so warm today (unfortunately I don't have a thermom here), and it has been raining steadily for hours.

On the bright side there's still a fair amount of snow visible around the place, at least there is in north oxford, on lawns, driveways, cars, roofs and side roads.

I think because a lot of us had frontal rain upto 6/7 hrs ago we forget much of the rain/snow event is forcast for evening over night

Temp has gone from 3.5 to 3c here but i fear its too marginal , maybe brill hill and areas above 500ft

Where that low goes is now crucial, we might get the colder air after the last of the rain has gone

However given we had so much snow , will still see lots of the white stuff tomorrow ie day +8

[The PIT]

Well the dew point is switching between 0.0C and 0.1C and the radar is picking up the fog as rain. Dry here but now Misty. Rain soon fizzled out.

[patrickshere]

2oC down from 4.5oC earlier.. Getting hopeful for later here, going to be marginal though to say the least.

[Craigers]

the NMM model shows ppn over the south Yorks area 21-about 07z; upper temps MIGHT give some wet snow at low level over the last hour or so on that timing.

As TM posted a while ago the Peak should get some but it may be a shade too far north for any major depth.

Still possible and the exact track of the low is crucial, so I'll keep an eye on it this evening.

is it normal to be 0c in doncaster john, wheres this cold air coming from

[TonyH]

This one looks a flop overall, can't win 'em all! Light precipitation, air too mild, Dps too high, Low too far south, etc, etc. Not what I would classify as a 'Winter Storm', unless you live in France! What a load of nonsense they spout!

[Coast]

Not what I would classify as a 'Winter Storm', unless you live in France! What a load of nonsense they spout!

Unless you live 40 miles North of the French coast and are in line for a lot of rain and high winds during the night......

[Totoro]

This one looks a flop overall, can't win 'em all! Light precipitation, air too mild, Dps too high, Low too far south, etc, etc. Not what I would classify as a 'Winter Storm', unless you live in France! What a load of nonsense they spout!

I share your sentiments, but largely blame it on the 'cover our backsides' approach in today's 'who to blame' mentality. From the met office's POV, best they warn of severe weather and nothing transpires, rather than vice versa.

Still, there's always tonight ......... (anyone got a straw I can clutch at? ).

[Polar Continental]

Well the precipitation has arrived as light to moderate rain here, as expected. Yesterday when this happened the rain turned quickly to sleet and then snow, the temperature is the same 1.5c currently, but the dew point is higher at 1.2c, where as yesterday the dew point was around –0.5c. So this not even marginal, I am very doubtful that this can turn to snow, unless the dew point can get near to freezing.

Paul

[Mondy]

Latest shipping forecast pickings:

Low Fitzroy 980 expected Holland 978 by midday tomorrow

Biscay, FitzRoy

West or southwest severe gale 9 to violent storm 11 veering northwest 5 to 7.

Latest charts shows the system at 978mb now: http://meteocentre.com/analyse/map.php?dat...g=en&map=UK

[Snowyowl9]

Looks like GFS should`ve stayed on all it`s original runs for timing showing rain now at 18.00 on the 12z.

Today has given light rain/sleet and drizzle max of 3.9c been dropping off all afternoon now at 0.9c with snow and settling except surfaces are very wet with thawing snow etc.

Slight wet dusting now as the snow falling is dryer like around this time yesterday.

Started turning to sleet/snow at 4.30ish earlier than I thought,fog here aswell and with an east/NE wind you can`t go wrong.

Edited February 9, 2009 by Snowyowl9

[noggin]

I've just got in (NE Bristol) and there is some wet snow mixed in with the rain. Rain is not very heavy, nor is wind very windy, yet! But the worst isn't supposed to be until later on, so I remain hopeful! It has certainly got very cold.

[Mondy]

Paris airports will shut to flights from 2000 (1900GMT) for 12 hours because extremely high winds are expected, transport officials say.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7879664.stm

[stewfox]

Looks like GFS should`ve stayed on all it`s original runs for timing showing rain now at 18.00 on the 12z.

Today has given light rain/sleet and drizzle max of 3.9c been dropping off all afternoon now at 0.9c with snow and settling except surfaces are very wet with thawing snow etc.

Slight wet dusting now as the snow falling is dryer like around this time yesterday.

Started turning to sleet/snow at 4.30ish earlier than I thought,fog here aswell and with an east/NE wind you can`t go wrong.

Have some people panic too soon ?

BBC did say this morning most of the snow event would take place post dark

Moderate rain here now but with some sleet in the air

Still 70% snow covering and deep in parts, amazing given the on off rain all day

Temp dropped from 3c to 2c in last 30mins

Edited February 9, 2009 by stewfox

[johnholmes]

I'' do a blog to show the probability of rain changing to snow overnight using the NW Extra charts

may take a little while

[Craigers]

I'' do a blog to show the probability of rain changing to snow overnight using the NW Extra charts

may take a little while

cool cool, looking forward to it! why is it 0c here john? was this expected?