Watching The Channel Low

[londonsnow]

well here in london we've had the one big fall, which has now all gone. on topic, the local forecasts are backtracking on the severity of this low

[Mondy]

Also Rapid Cyclogenesis noted at the 12z satrep. Not quite Bombogenesis, but impressive all the same.

[grab my graupel]

I may be wrong guys, but isn't this thread for discussing the Channel Low?

[john mac]

I may be wrong guys, but isn't this thread for discussing the Channel Low?

i wish i had a pound for everything u posted this

[Nick.F]

yes, sorry

[snowmadchrisuk]

yes, sorry

Yes it is getting abit boring watching the arguments about who has had the most snow. The weather gods arn't going to pay any attention to you lot.

This front doesn't want to push north into leicestershire and it is pushing east. I am getting drizzle from it but thats about it. The gfs seems to suggest it will go abit further north so hopefully later . The good thing about getting later though will be there is more chance of it being snow. If it can remain as snow tonight then it might stick around for a couple of days will colder air following on behind.

The low seems to be gathering pace now and is starting to move quickly eastwards by latest satalite pics.

[john mac]

just wondered how far south low would have to get for me to get some snow?

[bluearmy]

just wondered how far south low would have to get for me to get some snow?

Italy ...................... but thats next week john

[Dingwantssnow]

Is it me, looking at the sat images the low is heading more northerly?? Northern edge of that low looks very close to hitting the NW region?

[nick sussex]

There doesn't seem much northwards progress of the precip at the moment, I wonder whether we're going to see a further correction southwards of the track of the low. In terms of the satelitte images any cloud heading towards the nw is high cloud, the main low to me looks to be tracking due east.

Edited February 9, 2009 by nick sussex

[Coast]

Flood watch warnings now for IOW and Southampton coastal areas, total 5 warnings and 23 watches with the majority of those in the South West.

Pressure still falling at the Channel Light Vessel, currently down to 987.6 mb, windspeed 29.9 kts S/SW.

This is the current windspeed map from the K3 buoy:

Edited February 9, 2009 by Coast

[coffee23]

Hi,

Can someone please enlighten (sp) me to why the BBC are saying that the low will give snow here then turning to rain, with colder air behind it should the rain not be snow (thats what one would have though)?

Edited February 9, 2009 by coffee23

[Timmytour]

Hi,

Can someone please enlighten (sp) me to why the BBC are saying that the low will give snow here then turning to rain, with colder air behind it should the rain not be snow (thats what one would have though)?

Only guessing...but I'm thinking initially youll be getting getting the milder air clashing with the cold air hanging over your area at present...as the low becomes more dominant you start getting more of the mild air that's wrapped around the low.

[coffee23]

Only guessing...but I'm thinking initially youll be getting getting the milder air clashing with the cold air hanging over your area at present...as the low becomes more dominant you start getting more of the mild air that's wrapped around the low.

Hi,

Thanks for the reply...

[Coast]

12Z MetSat analysis:

[snowmadchrisuk]

Only guessing...but I'm thinking initially youll be getting getting the milder air clashing with the cold air hanging over your area at present...as the low becomes more dominant you start getting more of the mild air that's wrapped around the low.

The really mild 850's are not due to cross till this evening . You can follow the 850's here :

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=...e=gfsh500;sess=

To give you some idea of how warm this mild sector is it is currently -6 in aviemore and 11 degrees in penzance. The midlands is widely around 4 degrees which is higher than gfs predicted.

Aviemore was at -18 when I woke up this morning around 5am .

Edited February 9, 2009 by snowmadchrisuk

[Terminal Moraine]

Looking at the position of the centre of the low on Meteoceil at 1400, and assuming that the 06z GFS projection of the movement of the low is correct, this would suggest that the northern limit of the band of heaviest precipitation will reach a line, roughly from mid Cheshire through to the middle of South Yorkshire, during the early hours of tomorrow morning.

I would think that anywhere above 200mts in mid Wales, the West Midlands, through Leicestershire and Northants will be most favoured for heavy snow lasting longest.

My bit of the Peak District will probably be towards the northern edge of the heaviest stuff but obviously a change in track by a few miles will be crucial.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Latest from the Met Office .

Headline:

Rain, snow, strong winds clearing, then sunny spells, wintry showers.

This Evening and Tonight:

Scotland and Northern Ireland, clear spells and coastal wintry showers. Severe frost for inland Scotland. England and Wales, cloudy and windy with rain, sleet or snow, heavy in the south with significant snowfall in places. Drier in the west later.

Tuesday:

Rain, sleet or snow across central and southeast England gradually clearing, then all areas having sunny spells and scattered wintry showers. Strong to gale force northerly winds easing. Cold.

Updated: 1438 on Mon 9 Feb 2009

[johnholmes]

looking at the latest surface charts over southern England and northern France, and mapping the falls of pressure (isollobars), suggests that the low will move up the central/northern side of the English Channel to be clearing the Kent coast (near the far se corner) by the early hours.

Edited February 9, 2009 by johnholmes

[Polar Continental]

Looking at the position of the centre of the low on Meteoceil at 1400, and assuming that the 06z GFS projection of the movement of the low is correct, this would suggest that the northern limit of the band of heaviest precipitation will reach a line, roughly from mid Cheshire through to the middle of South Yorkshire, during the early hours of tomorrow morning.

I would think that anywhere above 200mts in mid Wales, the West Midlands, through Leicestershire and Northants will be most favoured for heavy snow lasting longest.

My bit of the Peak District will probably be towards the northern edge of the heaviest stuff but obviously a change in track by a few miles will be crucial.

Thanks for that TM, I think my area at only 74 mts will only see sleet or very wet snow at best, though the temperature is going the right way at the moment, after a high of 3.2c this afternoon, we are now falling at a rate of –0.6 an hour, currently 2.5c, but dew point still high at 2.2c. The precipitation band hasn’t reached here yet, but I think it’s only a matter of an hour or so now going by the latest radar. It certainly looks as though your area will see blizzard conditions for quite a few hours tonight and first thing tomorrow.

Paul

[snowmadchrisuk]

Looking dodgy for leicester now , unless we are far enough west. The met office are not very clear this evening.

Headline:

Rain, sleet or snow, but mostly rain in the east.

This Evening and Tonight:

Cloudy with outbreaks of rain, sleet or snow, heavy at times, and fresh to strong north to northeast winds. Rain is more likely in the east. Minimum temperature 0 °C.

Minimum temp was -1 on this mornings update . Little downgrade for the eastern half of the country although to be fair , gfs always had the easten half as rain.

[Coast]

Absolutely chucking it down now with the pressure starting to drop at 0.8 mb/hr. I don't think this is going to be pretty for us tonight.

[Craigers]

looking at the latest surface charts over southern England and northern France, and mapping the falls of pressure (isollobars), suggests that the low will move up the central/northern side of the English Channel to be clearing the Kent coast (near the far se corner) by the early hours.

no chance for yorkshire to get any snow then?

Though it was ment to shunt a lil northwards?

Edited February 9, 2009 by maxdamageukno1

[johnholmes]

the NMM model shows ppn over the south Yorks area 21-about 07z; upper temps MIGHT give some wet snow at low level over the last hour or so on that timing.

As TM posted a while ago the Peak should get some but it may be a shade too far north for any major depth.

Still possible and the exact track of the low is crucial, so I'll keep an eye on it this evening.

Edited February 9, 2009 by johnholmes

[conor123]

So it looks bone dry then here now?

How typical, i knew the radio saying 7 inches of snow would jinx it.