Watching The Channel Low

[Coast]

This factors into the potential impacts, as lunar perigee just passed on 7th (20z) will have all high tides running 1-2 m above normal where strong winds are onshore. This will be complicated as the low approaches with strong ESE winds likely and departs with strong NNE winds likely. Would expect some overtopping of south coast seawalls and harbour installations at the mid-day high tides and possible high water on the east coast of England at the midnight to 0200 high tides. There may also be cases of unusual low tide situations around 1800-2000h where strong NW winds are blowing behind the low centre.

You can monitor wave heights along the South coast here: www.channelcoast.org

Just pick the green dot nearest your location for real time information.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

I might be wrong with this, but looking at the METO rainfall radar, the ppn looks like its moving in quicker than planned?

[mozza81]

john warner was just on the radio - wolverhampton area he said upto 20cm of snow later today......

but he is usually wrong :lol: we will have to see.

saying that - yesterday it fell all as snow from 4pm around here...........

must be very hard to predict - on the BBC -they have got wolverhampton as being 1c max all day now!

[TEITS]

My current view of the situation.

This doesn't mean other areas are excluded but for me this zone has the chance of seeing the greatest disruption.

[Craigers]

My current view of the situation.

This doesn't mean other areas are excluded but for me this zone has the chance of seeing the greatest disruption.

im probably 10miles north of that line, hows doncaster going to fair with this situation tetis???

[Weather-history]

Taking a look at all the models I would agree the N extent is around N Midlands possibly getting into S yorks.

UKMO 0z has it much further north

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm243.gif

GFS 0z has it further north as well

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs273.gif

[TEITS]

UKMO 0z has it much further north

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm243.gif

GFS 0z has it further north as well

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs273.gif

Which is why I said possibly into S Yorks. :lol:

Let me put this straight once and for all because the mere mention of Yorks is beginning to irritate especially as i've made this clear.

Im not here to post about who gets to see snow. My purpose is to look at who will be the hardest hit. The heaviest precip is likely in the areas I mentioned and for Yorks especially N you would need the LP to track along the midlands but in this case its going to be along the channel/S coast.

[Weather-history]

Which is why I said possibly into S Yorks. :lol:

Let me put this straight once and for all because the mere mention of Yorks is beginning to irritate especially as i've made this clear.

Im not here to post about who gets to see snow. My purpose is to look at who will be the hardest hit. The heaviest precip is likely in the areas I mentioned and for Yorks especially N you would need the LP to track along the midlands but in this case its going to be along the channel/S coast.

I actually thought you were referring to the northern extent of the preciptation. The UKMO 0z has it well north compared to what the BBC forecasts are showing. I'm not sure why that is.

[TEITS]

I actually thought you were referring to the northern extent of the preciptation. The UKMO 0z has it well north compared to what the BBC forecasts are showing. I'm not sure why that is.

Firstly sorry for going off on one I thought I was replying to someone else. :lol:

Your certainly right the UKMO does have this further N than the forecasts suggest although I feel they have disregarded this and are using the other model (forgot the name).

The precip may very well reach Yorks and they could even have 10cm of snow. However IMO there is a small area at risk that could see far more snowfall probably in excess of 30cm but its difficult predicting exactly where!

[noggin]

I might be wrong with this, but looking at the METO rainfall radar, the ppn looks like its moving in quicker than planned?

Definitely. It has been raining here in NE Bristol for a couple of hours and I hadn't exepcted it until much later on.

[Thunder Snow]

Im not expecting anything tonight, unless there has been a dramatic change.

[Louise]

Some intense precip just off the sw coast right now judging by the meto radar. We are so very borderline in this location it's not even funny! We just don't have the height here for the more marginal events. It'll be interesting to see the whereabouts and the extent of the snowfall once it's all over.

Edited February 9, 2009 by Louise

[TEITS]

I don't have tiime to explain at the moment but looking at the 06Z around midnight is when the weather could get wild!!

Combination of upper temps around -4C, DP 1C, temp 1C, intense precip, strong winds means bedlum!!

[Nights King]

I didnt think i was meant to see any rain until at least mid day?

Whats happened has it stormed in early or does it not arrive til later still?

Im confused does this mean no snow for high ground in west country now?

[Fitzwis]

Good morning all...local forecast going for a NW severe gale here in the early hours tomorrow with gusts of 70mph...enjoy your snow whilst we enjoy the wind. Just glad the severe gale is forecast for the early hours when most people will be safe in their homes... :o

Edited February 9, 2009 by Fitzwis

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Just starting to sleet here at -1c. Thick fog developing also.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Teeming down with rain here....will it snow in Redhill on theback edge?

BFTP :o

[Roger J Smith]

I don't think precip is arriving early, there is an extensive rain shield ahead of this low, but the heavier precip will probably start to develop after 1200, the low centre is elongated at present in the area between 49 N 13 W and 46 N 19 W, the warm sector of the storm is over the Bay of Biscay and won't be over the Channel so much as over France but this is racing ahead and will be starting to occlude off the surface around 2100h (check the thickness forecasts and notice how quickly the milder 546 dm thickness disappears from 21 to 00) ... about then, the storm is deepening, losing its inflow of warm air, and pulling in the maximum moisture from the North Sea. This is why TEITS is saying, look out for what happens around midnight, the frontal boundaries are likely to be pulled into the centre of the low fairly quickly, and sleet could be turning to snow in many places. For the southwest inland, I would expect this to be mostly rain until this evening, then mostly snow overnight. The precip should change phase when the low centre is moving south of your location, or shortly afterwards.

Signs of fairly rapid development as of last hour some gusts to near 60 mph south of Brest, and ship report north of Spain SW 45 kts. But this storm has a good 10-15 mbs to develop yet, and the main part of it is still off the UK met radar.

[Interitus]

Just starting to sleet here at -1c. Thick fog developing also.

Reports of sleet at Brize Norton + Little Rissington.

[Tom Montalbano]

Running through the radar returns from the overnight period it doesnt look like the ppn will get much further north than the S.Pennines at most, unless forecasts are expecting a pulse from the south, to send it further north. Interesting report there from TONA of sleet Oxon/Warks border but he does have a bit of elevation.

I think its entirely possible we might see rain turn to snow a little south of Birmingham a bit later on, which I didnt think was likely at all yesterday evening.

Certainly an interesting days weather coming up.

Regards,

Tom.

[len]

Reports of sleet at Brize Norton + Little Rissington.

Can you verify this?

I get "rain snow" for Brize Norton

but "Overcast" for Little Rissington

here..........http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

Len

[stewfox]

. Interesting report there from TONA of sleet Oxon/Warks border but he does have a bit of elevation.

I think its entirely possible we might see rain turn to snow a little south of Birmingham a bit later on, which I didnt think was likely at all yesterday evening.

Certainly an interesting days weather coming up.

Regards,

Tom.

Its rain in North Oxfordshire, interesting to see whats going on at Brill Hill (600ft)

My partner wants to take me shopping but as its my birthday maybe go up there :lol: (5 miles away)

This frontal stuff wasn't expected ?

[nick sussex]

The latest ukmo 48hrs model has edged the low slightly further south compared to the 00hrs run and the mild sector is also a bit smaller.

[snowking]

The latest ukmo 48hrs model has edged the low slightly further south compared to the 00hrs run and the mild sector is also a bit smaller.

Hi Nick,

Is there a link anywhere to view this output?

Kind Regards

SK

[Barb]

UKMO 06z has the low less deep and further south which what I thought would happen a few days ago, always seems to go this way with these channel lows. If true this could mean the snow line could be further south than predicted, interesting times ahead.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ukm/2009020906/slp3.png 06z

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ukm/2009020900/slp4.png 00z