Snow Watch: North West England

[Bartlett Low]

Thanks for the PL thoughts - I know what you mean, Polar Lows are fascinating to talk about.

Well back on the here and now, do I detect a slight movement north of the rain/sleet/snow band on the latest met office radar? The green echoes seem to be touching parts of South Manchester now.

Nothing at all here in South Manchester

[NorthWest_Snow]

Mate i'd love it if you were right but as a lot of people have said the track of the feature is'nt set to hit the north-west of England which is unfortunate.

They are fantastic scenarios that have the potential to bring loads of snow to the nw every year but they seldom produce the goods.

Anyway, 2 cracking quotes from tonight as I have read through the pages:

"It's probably for the best really - the way things have gone so far it would probably advect warm air over us from the Irish Sea giving rain here before passing through the Cheshire gap and giving blizzards in the midlands and south east."

"It seems that to be an indication of how poor tonight is that we are reduced to discussing another feature that will probably bring no snow too."

haha no mate i am not saying we'll get hit by a polar low, certainly not that one (my fault i am getting tired, you meant the snow in the south didnt ya? )...i dont think anyone actually knows where the track is HS certainly not for the polar low..they are difficult enough to forecast let alone know where one will end up, as people have said the only way is to nowcast it..i expect like SP said before it will likely blow itself apart where its standing, but the thing it needs we have and we'll have to see if it will begin moving south or not..there is a northerly wind, and watching the map you can see it with the cloud cover.

its certainly getting beefier for sure -> http://www.sat24.com/gb

Edited February 9, 2009 by NorthWest_Snow

[dodge]

Nothing at all here in South Manchester

Yeah, I think we have the equivalent of King Kanut holding back the tide here, it wants to come our way, but it ain't gonna make it. It's all set to move South Eastwards now anyway. Maybe the Polar Low will put on the afterburners and dive down from the far north to blanket our region overnight. Then again, maybe Alex Ferguson will be named as Chelsea's next manager. NO chance lol

Edited February 10, 2009 by dodgeredee

[Hot*Snow]

Totally agree with you mate mate, you know how it is weve been let down so often etc etc. I think alot of us here in the north-west have become extremely pessemistic over the last week !

As you say its a case of nowcasting and I will certainly be keeping my eye on it because as Stephen P said earlier weather-wise they are very exciting to observe.

[Bartlett Low]

Yeah, I think we have the equivalent of King Kanut holding back the tide here, it wants to come our way, but it ain't gonna make it. It's all set to move South Eastwards now anyway. Maybe the Polar Low will put on the afterburners and dive down from the far north to blanket our region overnight. Then again, maybe Alex Ferguson will be named as Chelsea's next manager. NO chance lol

More chance of King Kanut as the new Chelsea boss with Mr.P.Low as Director Of Football!

[SP1986]

:lol:

[NorthWest_Snow]

Totally agree with you mate mate, you know how it is weve been let down so often etc etc. I think alot of us here in the north-west have become extremely pessemistic over the last week !

As you say its a case of nowcasting and I will certainly be keeping my eye on it because as Stephen P said earlier weather-wise they are very exciting to observe.

it looks like its going to wind itself up to be quite a big pl, if thats the case, the low technically isnt that far away from us about 300 miles northwest mainland scotland? clouds can easily extend up to around 6/700 m and since it isnt so far north it could pick up the warmer waters than that provided by the gulf stream..cloud base could be built quite rapidly..getting carried away again..coz it may burn itself out..but who knows haha thats what i love about nowcasting :lol:

Edited February 10, 2009 by NorthWest_Snow

[James M]

Well temps up here 1.4°C and it's turned to sleet.

[Hot*Snow]

31 users currently here - compared to 12 before.

Must be something interesting....

[NorthWest_Snow]

31 users currently here - compared to 12 before.

Must be something interesting....

haha actually take a closer look at the wider european sat http://www.sat24.com/ notice the rotation off to the northwest of that polar low? what the hell is that? it looks on reflection like an unclouded lp linking up, maybe just what old pl needs to get moving lmao

Edited February 10, 2009 by NorthWest_Snow

[SP1986]

Any adjoining low pressure will destroy the PL turning it none convective and by the looks of that satellite image this is what will happen.

Anyhow, time to call it a night!

[Hot*Snow]

Well one thing is for sure it looks very interesting. The problem is I feel slightly out of my depth regarding polar lows. I remember wrongly forecasting one in winter 2003/2004 which never really came off so I have always been cautious ever since, so nowcasting will come into play.

On another note, with the LP pressure system possibly feeding more energy behind it and spending more time out at sea surely thses are 2 positive contributions in terms of ppn intensity? Oron the other hand would the polar low simply merge with the LP system?

EDIT: I see SP has answerd the above question.

Edited February 10, 2009 by Hot*Snow

[Liam J]

slight shift to the south with the polar low slight expansion also, but it will die its death over the sea

[NorthWest_Snow]

Well one thing is for sure it looks very interesting. The problem is I feel slightly out of my depth regarding polar lows. I remember wrongly forecasting one in winter 2003/2004 which never really came off so I have always been cautious ever since, so nowcasting will come into play.

On another note, with the LP pressure system possibly feeding more energy behind it and spending more time out at sea surely thses are 2 positive contributions in terms of ppn intensity? Oron the other hand would the polar low simply merge with the LP system?

EDIT: I see SP has answerd the above question.

it depends, if it is actually moving south (it looked like an sat hiccup on last return), we'll see in the next hour if thats the case, it will be fine..if not it will loose it's convectiveness due to the lp swallowing it in effect..what we want is south movement, we have the warmer water it needs to grow those those clouds for better ppn..waiting game i think

EDIT: checked the 1230 sat image there is definate movement south, which is not surprising really considing the actual setup in place..i dont think it will destroy itself, its getting bigger its beginning to move south, just how fast it does is another thing..otherwise yes it will blow itself out before it gets to nw scotland..actually its something we should keep an eye on for the next hour..the winds up there are nw, the clouds are blowing in a nw fashion through the channel there..not saying about the pl, just the clouds. so we have a nw and a slight n flow in place

Edited February 10, 2009 by NorthWest_Snow

[Liam J]

i cant understand why it is not moving, it should have a pull off this low exiting the uk? looking at sat images everything around it is moving in a se direction

[Mondy]

RJS posted in the Scotland thread if you're interested..

[NorthWest_Snow]

its hard to say what its actually doing the last pass shows some sort of movement there

[Liam J]

south is no good we need se movement! can i have link to 1230 sat image please?

[James M]

My knowledge is limited so I might be talking rubbish but it looks as if the convection is becoming detached from the centre and following the flow of the other showers in the area, on a more SE track.

[NorthWest_Snow]

james there you go http://www.sat24.com/gb

James M to me it looks like a dodgy sat image, if look at it one side doesnt match up with the other see bottom of the low.

Edited February 10, 2009 by NorthWest_Snow

[Liam J]

thanks, im sure it has shifted slightly to the se lets hope so!

[NorthWest_Snow]

latest image looks a lot better and might i say there is definate movement se

[James M]

james there you go http://www.sat24.com/gb

James M to me it looks like a dodgy sat image, if look at it one side doesnt match up with the other see bottom of the low.

I see what you mean but it could just be it breaking apart.

[NorthWest_Snow]

I see what you mean but it could just be it breaking apart.

but if you look at the latest pic, it still retains its eye and looks pretty solid to me, with a gradual movement se..but you could be right.

oh dear look at the secondary low and its position, but then again if you look at it, that pl was moving nowhere before, and suddenly the secondary low has appeared the pl has begun moving se..i hope we are not seeing its break up ..i fear if the system doesnt get a move on, we could be looking up at a very fast break up

Edited February 10, 2009 by NorthWest_Snow

[Liam J]

00.30-00.45 covering a wider area and movement to the se, we will see