Storm Risk Discussion Part 3

[weatherobsuk]

I can see some comulous clouds bubbling up to my east (over the Pennines) and there is a risk for showers later but not thunderstorms. It is quiet here mainly because the southeast is not included in the 'at risk' areas...

Karyo

GFS puts a 50% storm risk with light-moderate showers firstly across the Northern Parts as the upper cool air starts to move south, then later on in the day more showers are expected towards Liverpool and the Cheshire Plain with a possibility of a isolated CB towards the central Pennines.

[karyo]

GFS puts a 50% storm risk with light-moderate showers firstly across the Northern Parts as the upper cool air starts to move south, then later on in the day more showers are expected towards Liverpool and the Cheshire Plain with a possibility of a isolated CB towards the central Pennines.

Let's hope so!

However, a vale of high cloud is starting to cover the sky from the north and this might limite convection.

Karyo

Edited June 2, 2009 by karyo

[weatherobsuk]

Ah that Upper Cloud is the Colder Air coming down from the North, its only a thin band of cloud some 30 miles in length so should be gone by 5-6pm. Its the boundary between the High Pressure and 24+'c temps and the moist yet colder air temps of 18'c were all going to be seeing tomorrow (that band incidentally will be over North Italy by the morning.)

Im hoping the moisture coming within the airmass will induce enough lift to spark something off with todays heat, the question depends on how quick the airmass is cooling behind it (too quick and any convection will soon die off as the trigger temp dissipates.)

Another thing to watch out for is a convergence zone which im assuming the storm risk is hinting at, currently forming over the Cheshire Plain as the Cold Front arrives, here in the Pennines we already have a cooler Westerly wind which will suddenly be changing Easterly within the next hour, this could help trigger some cells possibly towards Northwich and Southwards.

[karyo]

Some nice convection to my east now. A refreshing westerly breeze will probably ensure that any showers will stay over the Pennines. Snow Joke, I think it looks good for your area this afternoon.

The high cloud has moved south now but I can see some more to my north.

Karyo

[weatherobsuk]

Some nice convection to my east now. A refreshing westerly breeze will probably ensure that any showers will stay over the Pennines. Snow Joke, I think it looks good for your area this afternoon.

The high cloud has moved south now but I can see some more to my north.

Karyo

Looking even better now, TCu has been initiated with the cold plume and injected upper air moisture, feeding some TCU/CU clouds towards the spine of the Pennines including here (which im currently under.) Dark medium level bases look good for something to spark off in the next 3 hours, the second batch of upper cirrus cloud bank should help force lifting further.

EDIT- Meto Radar not updating since 3pm, but sat24 is showing the mid-level cloud and upper airmass clearly.

Edited June 2, 2009 by SNOW_JOKE

[weatherobsuk]

Latest NW Radar shows a Cell being initiated currently near Harrogate (West of York) and a possible cell trying to develop over Saddleworth Moor.

[dogs32]

hi as anyone got the link to the Sat place...lost the link....cant remember what it is called....Sat something or another

its french i think

edit

i see above sat24....

Ross mate delete this if you wont

Edited June 2, 2009 by dogs32

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Looking and feeling potentially tasty outside, although similar to about 3-5 days ago.

Very hot sunny day, with clouds and humidity (at least 'feels like' humidity) increasing. Also going a little dark.

Would be quite nice for a thunderstorm just to break up the mugginess (Although I could do without a powercut tonight...still working).

Edited June 2, 2009 by Shiny_Bottom_1

[loopydreamer]

im surprised noone has been on this thread for a while! it's looking stormy here! very dark! or is it just the cool front encroachng?

[andy_leics22]

im surprised noone has been on this thread for a while! it's looking stormy here! very dark! or is it just the cool front encroachng?

Yes it looks very stormy doesen't it! Very dark clouds here, look just like clouds you would see during a storm but yet nothing is happening and nothing is happening on the radar either lol.

[loopydreamer]

thanks for your reply andy! I had just got in from work and came straight here without checking the radar first! No wonder noone is here if nothin is happeni ng lol!

it just feels so stormy! It's weird!

[Greeny]

hmm I'm still looking towards the weekend for the better chance of anything happening, decreasing pressure, seems that we will be surrounded by low pressure systems and the one that might get nearest us is the one centred over northern France. Also troughs forecast, temperatures are not looking that great between 15 - 17C Max for Saturday. Relative humidy is forecast to be high at 850hpa on Friday, can't see any further than Friday for now. Home grown storms possible, I was hoping for a possible French import but seeing that the winds are forecast predominently from the North its less likely. After looking at the models I'm less happy with those chances but its still early and I'll take a look nearer the weekend.

[Harry]

According to GFS, numerous chances of thundery activity over the coming fortnight for a fair few areas, though can't see there being any widespread or severe events.

GFS suggesting a potential plume event around the 16th June onwards - obviously far too far away to pay any attention to details, but potential for a plume exists at this stage nonetheless!

[dave48]

Some decent convection around here actually, looks quite thundery I have to say. No thunderstorms to come today though.

Looks like a quiet few days but then hopefully things will get going in not to long. Not had a good year for storms at all this year, even worse than last year. Hopefully a good summer to come.

[Harry]

Looks like a quiet few days but then hopefully things will get going in not to long. Not had a good year for storms at all this year, even worse than last year. Hopefully a good summer to come.

Snap! In fact, not had a well good storm for quite some years!

Yes, we have had some brilliant MCS', producing some really quite spectacular lightning displays - what I crave though at the moment are the storms that I remember from my childhood, like those which were on Nature's Fury last night. I'm not kidding myself, I know we don't get those supercellular storms, but there were a few shots of a storm at night (when at the hotel I think) when outside it was vertical sheets of intense precip, blinding strobe lightning and intense explosions of thunder, real loud booms which cause mini earthquakes ....I miss those!

Edited June 3, 2009 by Harry

[SteveB]

Snap! In fact, not had a well good storm for quite some years!

Yes, we have had some brilliant MCS', producing some really quite spectacular lightning displays - what I crave though at the moment are the storms that I remember from my childhood, like those which were on Nature's Fury last night. I'm not kidding myself, I know we don't get those supercellular storms, but there were a few shots of a storm at night (when at the hotel I think) when outside it was vertical sheets of intense precip, blinding strobe lightning and intense explosions of thunder, real loud booms which cause mini earthquakes ....I miss those!

Double Snap.

Not one storm so far this year. And not had an actual storm that passes directly over head since 2006.

[Harry]

Although 5 days away, but I am liking the CAPE/storm risk maps for the SE on Tuesday

Incidentally, CAPE/Storm risk maps for the following Tuesday have completely ruled out a plume for now.

Edited June 4, 2009 by Harry

[Harry]

Really don't know why I bother - all change again on the GFS front!?

Plume event in about 10 days back on, possibly!

I promise I'll be good and stop looking at it :o

[Stuart]

Storm Forecast Issued: 2009-06-04 18:23:00

Valid: 2009-06-05 00:00:00 - 2009-06-05 23:59:00

Regions Affected

Northern Isles, much of Scotland, parts of Northeast England ( Northern Ireland, Northwest England, Yorkshire, and the East & West Midlands are included in the WATCH )

Synopsis

A cool and showery northeasterly airflow will be dominant across the United Kingdom during Friday. Showers are expected to become widespread across northern and eastern Scotland during the day, with snow possible above ~700m in particular. The showers during the afternoon are expected to move far inland on stiff northeasterly winds. Some of the showers are likely to be thundery, especially where they are frequent along North Sea coastal counties. A developing cold front across Northern England will see scattered showers initially develop during the morning, but these are likely to become increasingly frequent, merging into an area of rain during the afternoon, especially on the eastern side of the Pennines. Scattered showers may develop elsewhere, particularly over the Midlands, but conditions are forecast to be less favourable for thundery showers. Showers are expected to merge into longer spells of rain across the Midlands/N England in particular during the evening as an area of LOW pressure develops. Showers across Scotland will decrease in number rapidly during the evening, but are likely to continue in coastal counties during the night.

http://ukasf.co.uk/module-Storm/mode-forecast/id-209/

but you know my luck i will miss out

[Harry]

Was saying on the way into the office a few mins ago, the skies look like either there has been a storm, or there will be a storm!

Judging by the forecasts, probably neither ...but the weather does look dodgy nonetheless!

[azores92]

looks like there is some fairly intense rain across the borders, and on the northumberland/cumbrian border at present.

[Stuart]

looks like there is some fairly intense rain across the borders, and on the northumberland/cumbrian border at present.

yes you a right there :lol:

[karyo]

It was sunny in Manchester until 15 mins ago. Now it has clouded over and judging by the radar, it should start raining here by midday. Once it starts, the rain will probably be here for 24 hours!

Karyo

[VillagePlank]

My tip for the day is look out for Sunday lunchtime in the S/E.

Here's the forecast skew-t :

I would say that this transforms into a natural English forecast of moderate chance of convection occuring, with initial risk of t/storms low, however, if they do occur they the precipitation will be intense and contain frequent lightning

As I can't access forecast skew-t's for later in the day, I suspect one can infer that the risk of convection will increase until about 4pm on Sunday. Of course, this is GFS and this is more than 5 minutes away, so usual caution advised.

Edited June 5, 2009 by VillagePlank

[Harry]

My tip for the day is look out for Sunday lunchtime in the S/E.

Here's the forecast skew-t :

Reduced 84%

800 x 700 (61.85K)

I would say that this transforms into a natural English forecast of moderate chance of convection occuring, with initial risk of t/storms low, however, if they do occur they the precipitation will be intense and contain frequent lightning

As I can't access forecast skew-t's for later in the day, I suspect one can infer that the risk of convection will increase until about 4pm on Sunday. Of course, this is GFS and this is more than 5 minutes away, so usual caution advised.

Nice one, shall keep an eye out indeed! :lol: