Storm Risk Discussion Part 3

[Harry]

Just thought this comment was interesting - not expecting much but something to keep an eye on over the latter part of the weekend maybe:

On Sunday and Monday winds will be from the east or southeast, with largely dry and sunny conditions. Temperatures will be warm or very warm away from eastern and southern coasts, but also quite breezy over southern and eastern counties. Later on Monday there is a threat of some showers reaching the far southeast of England. During Tuesday to Thursday it will become generally more unsettled from the south, with showers or longer outbreaks of rain developing, with some of this heavy, but with temperatures continuing above the average for early June in most places. Thereafter the most likely conditions are for it to continue rather unsettled, with a mixture of sunny periods and occasional showers and with some longer outbreaks of rain likely, too.

This does not tie up well with NW GFS - the moderate levels of CAPE over France/Benelux for this period are virtually matched across a fair portion of the Western UK, yet only the 'threat of some showers reaching the far SE' gets mentioned - curious!

The only thing that remotely gets me hopeful here is the fact that any 'showers' will come across the most minimum of channel, therefore minimal effect. But we'll wait and see a lot nearer the time.

[Thundery wintry showers]

A few fairly potent cells being blown along on a strong westerly wind now effecting my part of the country.

Ignore the huge Anaprop which ive circled.

Yes, I saw them just as I was about to head back down to Exeter. I caught the first couple of showers from that cluster, but missed the big hailstorm as I started my journey south as it arrived (doh!). There were certainly some very impressive cumulonimbus cells. Backing up Geordiesnow's report of large hail, there was also hail reported from Cleadon.

Here in the South West there is some storm potential for next week. Easterly winds can help bring the main influx of continental storms west towards Exeter rather than their more usual track up the central and eastern regions of the country- and some homegrown showers are likely on Monday and Tuesday.

[dogs32]

nice something to look forward to.

.I am finding this weather boring

[SteveB]

That sounds good TWS. Could do with a good storm in these parts.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Just had a look on google maps and it turns out Ross Bay is near Stranrear, who Knew!?!

Call it a lucky guess based on the radar image at the time!

Hmmm, in the last few minutes darker clouds have blown in on the westerly breeze - possibly a shower in the next few minutes?

Edit: Darkest clouds are crossing to our north, but no radar echo according to Meteogroup.

Edited May 27, 2009 by w0033944

[andy_leics22]

Hi guys, sorry about the other day with that whole Midlands debate thing. I didn't mean to be argumentative and stupid like that, was just having a rough day and suppose I had to take it out on something. I'm not usually like that so I don't know why I did it but sorry if I offended or annoyed anyone.

[maidstone weather]

Hi guys, sorry about the other day with that whole Midlands debate thing. I didn't mean to be argumentative and stupid like that, was just having a rough day and suppose I had to take it out on something. I'm not usually like that so I don't know why I did it but sorry if I offended or annoyed anyone.

No worries Andy, i think quite a few people (I for one) were quite annoyed, primarily because of the poor lack of storms that were initially forecast

[andy_leics22]

No worries Andy, i think quite a few people (I for one) were quite annoyed, primarily because of the poor lack of storms that were initially forecast

Thanks mate, yeh I think it was a number of factors that made me get upset that day. I was having a rough day anyway but when my location got about 5 minutes of rain during the whole day and night when I expected at least a period of heavy rain with possibly storms then that made me very cheesed off lol. I don't know why I did the whole Midlands arguement, I just felt in a mood to take it out on something so thats why I did it. Obviously regret it now and it wasn't something I usually do so I wish I hadn't.

[SteveB]

Thanks mate, yeh I think it was a number of factors that made me get upset that day. I was having a rough day anyway but when my location got about 5 minutes of rain during the whole day and night when I expected at least a period of heavy rain with possibly storms then that made me very cheesed off lol. I don't know why I did the whole Midlands arguement, I just felt in a mood to take it out on something so thats why I did it. Obviously regret it now and it wasn't something I usually do so I wish I hadn't.

I don't think you were the only one who was really annoyed. I can fully understand your feelings.

[Coast]

Just returned from a warm bike ride (21 DgC air temp) with a small amount of perspiration to the forehead! Very humid in Mid Sussex and the sort of day you would normally expect to end in a brief storm. However, I'm not sure what normal is these days.... :lol:

[maidstone weather]

24C here and humid. The clouds are slowly gaining height and are taking on some dark underbellies. One particular cloud that is slowly bubbling up is to my west - TN9? :lol:

Nothing on radar nor ATD yet.

[Harry]

24C here and humid. The clouds are slowly gaining height and are taking on some dark underbellies. One particular cloud that is slowly bubbling up is to my west - TN9?

Nothing on radar nor ATD yet.

I've not noticed anything here - other than its 24C and humid, while rather cloudy at the same time. My Mum mentioned earlier that apparently Sunday could possibly be stormy ?? not sure which forecast she watched and what areas it referred to though.

Just paid my deposit for Tour 1 in 2010 - ideally would have gone for Tour 2 or 3, but can't guarantee that I wont have exams scheduled for then. Still, something to look forward to :lol:

[andy_leics22]

I've not noticed anything here - other than its 24C and humid, while rather cloudy at the same time. My Mum mentioned earlier that apparently Sunday could possibly be stormy ?? not sure which forecast she watched and what areas it referred to though.

Just paid my deposit for Tour 1 in 2010 - ideally would have gone for Tour 2 or 3, but can't guarantee that I wont have exams scheduled for then. Still, something to look forward to :lol:

Really not sure where she got that forecast from, whoever forecast it must not be looking at any weather models lol. On the models there is no signs of storms till at least Monday/Tuesday and even then it doesen't look stormy.

[Tn9]

24C here and humid. The clouds are slowly gaining height and are taking on some dark underbellies. One particular cloud that is slowly bubbling up is to my west - TN9?

Nothing on radar nor ATD yet.

I never see nowt,it has got cloudier as the days gone on,if we was looking for the rogue shower,here would not be a good starting point lol.

[maidstone weather]

I never see nowt,it has got cloudier as the days gone on,if we was looking for the rogue shower,here would not be a good starting point lol.

can you see anything this morning?

After clear blue skies this morning, a distinct area of cloud is moving east to west across the region, and some of this has some considerable height. May be an interesting development, it is already very warm and humid outside.

you can see it developing here: http://www.sat24.com/frame.php?html=view&country=gb

Also shows the fog over Wales quite well too

[Harry]

can you see anything this morning?

After clear blue skies this morning, a distinct area of cloud is moving east to west across the region, and some of this has some considerable height. May be an interesting development, it is already very warm and humid outside.

you can see it developing here: http://www.sat24.com/frame.php?html=view&country=gb

Also shows the fog over Wales quite well too

Can see a lot here - multiple towers trying to build!! At 7:30 this morning it was 17C and risen rapidly since then.

Why oh why so far this year, has the sunshine been out, temperatures risen rapidly, humidity been up and towers been forming - when real potential has not been present for storm development. Its soooooo frustrating

Edited May 29, 2009 by Harry

[maidstone weather]

Can see a lot here - multiple towers trying to build!! At 7:30 this morning it was 17C and risen rapidly since then.

Why oh why so far this year, has the sunshine been out, temperatures risen rapidly, humidity been up and towers been forming - when real potential has not been present for storm development. Its soooooo frustrating

the best storms come when they are not forecast

[MP-R]

The N-W 10 Day Summary shows potential for storms on Sunday and Monday evening here in the West Country. I'm taking that with a pinch of salt at the moment but I remember a small evening thunderstorm on 4th June 2006 coming out of nowhere - in the middle of a high pressure area. I'm sure any storm development at first will be the home-grown sort and most likely very localised.

[SteveB]

The N-W 10 Day Summary shows potential for storms on Sunday and Monday evening here in the West Country. I'm taking that with a pinch of salt at the moment but I remember a small evening thunderstorm on 4th June 2006 coming out of nowhere - in the middle of a high pressure area. I'm sure any storm development at first will be the home-grown sort and most likely very localised.

I think a very big pince of salt is needed. Still waiting for our first storm this year.

[Greeny]

the best storms come when they are not forecast

looking at the cape and li for the country at 15:00 and 18:00, there seems to be potential on the west side and close around the scottish border. The only concern is a trigger for this potential. No fronts coming in apart from a weakening cold front coming from the east which looks like it would have dissipated anyway and no wind conversions forecast either. Also high pressure around us, not helping.

Hopefully the above quote will be true on this occasion.

[mitch69]

can you see anything this morning?

After clear blue skies this morning, a distinct area of cloud is moving east to west across the region, and some of this has some considerable height. May be an interesting development, it is already very warm and humid outside.

you can see it developing here: http://www.sat24.com/frame.php?html=view&country=gb

Also shows the fog over Wales quite well too

Yeah shows the cloud building up quite nicely from your end !

[Gilz]

I certainly hope that quote pays off today, and have to agree the best one always are the ones that sneek up on you.

Hoping to hit the road at approx 4pm and heading to Beattock Summit which will give good views looking south towards the border.

So in the mean time keeping an eye on the satellite images, but have to say the temps here are really picking up, humidity now up to 75% TBH hoping the seas breeze may help aid some lift, so fingers crossed.

[Geordiesnow]

the best storms come when they are not forecast

Well i believe the forecasts are going to be accurate today, there is virtually no chance of storms developing under a large high pressure cell that we have at the moment.

Surprised that people believe storms are possible just because of some convective cloud building up.

[maidstone weather]

Well i believe the forecasts are going to be accurate today, there is virtually no chance of storms developing under a large high pressure cell that we have at the moment.

Surprised that people believe storms are possible just because of some convective cloud building up.

same tbh

but we can all hope

[Andy Bown]

Someone or something is having a laugh : there's a strike recorded at 10.30 on Meteocentre somewhere in the Berkshire region !