Storm Risk Discussion Part 3

[londonsnow]

we have thunder in london! one rumble, didnt see any lightning.

[Mammatus]

Very muggy and stormy feeling outside currently.

Here's hoping something materialises in the next hour...........

Seasons

[UKSupercell]

Cor haven't been on this site in ages, is it me though or the previous few "possible thunderstorm" days have been forecasted incorrectly by the metoffice, YET....AGAIN. I know forecasting is a hard job yadda yadda yadda but when Metoffice, consistently fail on their thunderstorm forecasts (and with their new "super computer" i've heard) then it's really quite tedious, this is what they said for today in my region (Bucks, South east near London).

"Scattered thunderstorms with heavy downpours are likely this evening with some more prolonged and locally heavy rain during the night. A warm and quite muggy night with mostly light winds. Minimum temperature 12 °C."

Ok one, there were no scattered thunderstorms at all this evening in the south east (I heard there was thundery rain that skimmed through Kent and into essex, suffolk earlier) and now they're talking about prolongued heavy rain, well I've checked the radar and it seems some is moving directly my way but I doubt it'll be particularly bad.

Secondly, the forecast at the start of today was "isolated thunderstorms breaking out," obviously that wasn't the case and they predicted thunderstorms for last night and heavy thundery rain moving into the south-west which literally petered out the time it hit England shores.

Sorry if i'm moaning or whatever but everytime Metoffice (who are supposed to be the best forecaster) predict thunderstorms, they never happen and it's getting really frustrating now, the moment I read there's gonna be storms, I get excited but it never happens and quite frankly it's not acceptable since this isn't a one off, it's around 80% of the time they get it wrong.

[PhilM1]

Cor haven't been on this site in ages, is it me though or the previous few "possible thunderstorm" days have been forecasted incorrectly by the metoffice, YET....AGAIN. I know forecasting is a hard job yadda yadda yadda but when Metoffice, consistently fail on their thunderstorm forecasts (and with their new "super computer" i've heard) then it's really quite tedious, this is what they said for today in my region (Bucks, South east near London).

They have bought a new super comp. but its not live yet and I think I read it won't be until later this Summer...

On a local level near Dudly the front has arrived from the west giving light to moderate rain.

[NorthantsSnow]

August is when the new super comp will be introduced and the quality of the forecasts should improve.

[Paul Sherman]

Seeing as the Uk Failed again! (God cant wait for this Summer)

A Lightning Picture from Childress (Tx)

Our Storms were pants as well if its any consolation!

Paul S

[MAF]

Hey Paul, perhaps we should have had a "see text" day in the UK too

[Paul Sherman]

Hey Paul, perhaps we should have had a "see text" day in the UK too

Yeah

Perhaps the Meto should Include the US Type warnings as the "Be Prepared" Risk is a little over the top in my opinion, lets see what there new super duper computer does from late summer, notholding my breath though!

Paul S

[Coast]

Seeing as the Uk Failed again! (God cant wait for this Summer)

Our Storms were pants as well if its any consolation!

Ha, don't rub it in!

We did actually get a few rumbles and a flash around 10.15 pm but nothing spectacular and nothing worth getting in the car for.

Looks like a quiet day coming up with only a bit of rain for us.

[Neilsouth]

Ha, don't rub it in!

Agreed! , Paul not everyone can afford lots of ££££ especially in these current times... Unless you are an mp

Some of the rain here is very heavy , we've had more intense rain than with yesterdays storms!

[maidstone weather]

Well despite not getting any bangs or flashes yesterday, we still got some decent rainfall for this dehydrated corner of the UK. 6.2mm yesterday + 3.6mm so far since midnight brings the rainfall so far this month to 46.2% of the average

[Lightningboy]

i saw 2 very distant flashes out to sea around 5 or 6pm out to sea in the east.

and rumble out sea which was one of the most coolest distant rumbles ive ever heard even though though was out to sea made everyone round culver down freeze almost like a shockwave . It was really weird but cool it was all out to sea though and that was about it apart from heavy showers last night around 11:00pm to 12:00am and then just rained threw out the night until now as the sun is out

[Wilxy]

Hi all fellow weather lovers:)

After some rain last night(which wasn't thundery:() has cleared away now to leave a nice morning with sunshine but with some scattered clouds about to.

[Wilxy]

Gosh its alot more quite in here today:D

[Cheese Rice]

Storms, what storms??

BBC Regional weather said on sunday "extremely heavy rain, with the likleyhood of lightning and thunder" , if you count 15minutes of light rain "extreme" then God help the Beeb. Reminds me of the poor forecast on Feb2nd with that front that pushed up from the SE and was meant ot give 50cm of snow, and for the most it was heavy rain.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Nothing heard at all here in S. Norfolk. Quite heavy rain this morning that has now cleared to the east. Still overcast, but signs of thinner cloud to NW (my desk is next to a window looking North over our back garden).

[Harry]

Blimey - definitely made the right call to go to bed when I did then - may well of heard that rumble detected towards London, but I dont think staying awake to the early hours for that is worth it.

Woke this morning to heavy rain, which lasted from when I woke up at 6:30 (was raining before that also) and finished around 9 - some of it was quite heavy, feeding on the humidity, but now much cooler and fresher - though a tad humid still.

Looking ahead on the GFS it doesn't look good for any storm outbreaks until around the first week of June - though, obviously this will change either for or against us in the coming days. There is a slight blip in that by the way of a little burst of CAPE for the Midlands/W Midlands in between, but will probably vapourise in the mean time.

Storms, what storms??

BBC Regional weather said on sunday "extremely heavy rain, with the likleyhood of lightning and thunder" , if you count 15minutes of light rain "extreme" then God help the Beeb. Reminds me of the poor forecast on Feb2nd with that front that pushed up from the SE and was meant ot give 50cm of snow, and for the most it was heavy rain.

With regards the MetO/BBC, I know the weather is immensely complex and virtually impossible to predict, but my feeling is something is wrong with their computers, or meteorologists interpreting them/running them. When I was younger, when storms, particularly 'nasty' or 'torrential' storms, were forecast to move up from France, they'd arrive without delay. If there was a lightning symbol Kent/W Sussex area, I'd stay up at night and wait for the lightning to pass by (once I'd conquer the fear of course). If it was over London and Kent, it would bang and flash over head. Now though....??

I can't help but think there is something wrong - either with the MetO and BBC's computers or calibre of meteorologists, OR, which is quite likely IMO, climate change is now taking effect and the computer systems are not updated to take this into account.

Without a doubt in my mind, something is wrong with the forecasting, not just with severe events but the general events, like a cold front sweeping in bring moderate/heavy rain across SE areas - there's been a few occasions already this year where the forecast has been for persistent rain and it has been sunny all day....go figure.

And, while I am on it, another plea for the BBC symbols to revert back to the good old days, with also an AM forecast and a PM forecast, and not a running clock which is almost always inaccurate.

Edited May 26, 2009 by Harry

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Well, being in Norfolk, our local BBC news (Look East) has used WeatherQuest forecasts rather than Met Office for several years now (since not long after the Norwich Weather centre closed), and I'm sure that they are usually more accurate in their forecasting for us than the national TV forecasts.

[maidstone weather]

Does anyone remember Sun. 31st Aug 2008? Yesterday reminds me very much of that day. An unforecast MCS, extra cloud cover, lower temps than forecast and what was originally forecast to be widespread, locally severe, storms became a few flashes of lightning over Norfolk. And of course the MetO and BBC overhyped it for several days beforehand

Edited May 26, 2009 by maidstone weather

[Wilxy]

Heavy showers now rolling into bristol but no thunder heard.

[maidstone weather]

Heavy showers now rolling into bristol but no thunder heard.

sferic in between W-S-M and Bristol

[SteveB]

sferic in between W-S-M and Bristol

Just heavy showers rolling through on a stiff SW Wind. Might grow into something a bit better, but just plain old showers here.

Edited May 26, 2009 by SteveB

[Wilxy]

sferic in between W-S-M and Bristol

Yes i have a pciture of the shower but how do i post it

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

OK, I'm a dunce, an utter simpleton - what is sferic?

Edited May 26, 2009 by w0033944

[SteveB]

Yes i have a pciture of the shower but how do i post it

Their is a browse tab below the field where you write a message, then once you have the photo you require, click the upload button next to the browse button

Job done.