Convective/storm Discussion

[Tn9]

How much of a 'storm' is it!? Just thinking about maybe taking a wander outside (thats desperate lol). There is definitely something down that way as it was showing up on the MetO radar at 11pm also.

Blimey Harry,you are talking crisis,its still about hundred miles away ,Paul,did you happen to bring any of the CAPE home from the states?cause i think the time is coming to let some go

[Phil UK]

OK..... someone else look at radar and tell me if they see what im seeing.

I can UkStormChaser. Maybe anaprop? Can't see a storm developing. Small shower perhaps, but I'm thinking the former personally.

Phil.

[Nick F]

Harry, have you seen this vid taken in Folkestone, Kent in 2007. One of my favourites from the Kent area

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j3LSRAHEIRA

Be nice to have a storm getting near that intensity, last year only August 6th produced something close to that here from the south, this year nil so far. Though had a few rumbles in April and also last Sunday morning. Mind you in the US that clip would be just a normal non-severe storm that pops up most afternoons somehwere on the Plains - even under a ridge.

Desperately need a plume-type set-up, looked like there would be a brief plume late Sat/Sun this weekend, but that now looks like being shunted further east to affect just the near continent on the 18z.

[Harry]

Blimey Harry,you are talking crisis,its still about hundred miles away ,Paul,did you happen to bring any of the CAPE home from the states?cause i think the time is coming to let some go

Yep - that in need for 'that drug' at the moment!

Had to have a quick re-check on the GFS front, and already said goodbye to the chance of imports for the weekend. Monday is looking awful for us in the SE now (awful from the point of view of watching everyone else having a great time). Tuesday though, significant turn around with decent cape covering the whole of the SE corner - until tomorrow morning that is when that inevitable shield will kick in!

[Phil UK]

Thank you, Weather09 for the Folkstone footage. That was on a par more or less to the 15th April 2009 storm that we had here in Solihull. (Especially the IC lightning!)

Phil.

[UkStormChaser]

Ok im done for the night. Nothing going on. just a small shower i think. Laters all.

[dave48]

Got some footage here of yesterdays storm. Nothing special just a few CGs.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=boStuGRJU-s...re=channel_page

Cool video, hopefully we might get some of that down here soon!

Very good quality too with the hd option!

[Phil UK]

Thank you also to Weather09. Great footage. So that's where my storm went eh??

I did notice the METO radar with bright colours to my west, a bit blue in front of me but by 3pm-ish, the METO radar looked like an explosion in a paint factory over Wales, Midlands and north of London.

Solihull drew the short straw and got f^€k all!!

Incidentally, what was with the gasp at 1 minute and 4 seconds? Never seen lightning so close before?

Phil.

[Phil UK]

Me too, Weather09. About a few yards from me becoming toast.

Story is...

July 1994, very hot and humid day. There I was working away outside on a very hot and humid day. A dark cloud at about 3pm which looked innocuous at the time. Thuoght nothing of it. Then BANG!! A CG struck a tree not far behind me and did I run indoors?? You bet. I'd have left Linford Christie standing.

July 1989... Coming home in a thunderstorm where two areas of low pressure fronts met, one from the east, the other from the south (Germany and Denmark and culminated over the Midlands) At 5pm as I was coming home from work. A very near midnight looking gust front and GC's were flashing everywhere as I'm guessing two storms amalgamated. Fork lightning and hail the size of 10p pieces for a while and trust my bus stop to be where I had to get off at the time.

Phil. (And with that, I'm saying goodnight. See ya soon!)

Edited June 11, 2009 by Phil UK

[A.J]

morning all, still some potential for thunderstorms Monday afternoon on the 00z run.....CAPE and Lift transferring westwards during the day..

Still a long way out (T+84) but worth keeping an eye on future models to see how it pans out

[Harry]

I prefer Tuesday's at the moment

[A.J]

I prefer Tuesday's at the moment

Blimey Harry, I hadnt even looked at tuesday charts!....as you said, Monday's good, but for the south, tuesday's even better....You may get your storm yet!

[SteveB]

Well still waiting for my first storm, Monday and Tuesday have potential to deliver. As alway's it's a lottery as to where and who get them.

[Harry]

Well still waiting for my first storm, Monday and Tuesday have potential to deliver. As alway's it's a lottery as to where and who get them.

Lottery - very much so! I am at Wembley stadium on tuesday for a football match in the afternoon - I just know that there'll be storms kicking off around me and I will be able to see none of it

[maidstone weather]

Advisory for much of England away from the south and southwest for Monday

There is a moderate risk of severe weather affecting parts of England and Wales during Monday. Heavy, thundery showers are expected to develop during the day and lasting well into the evening. These showers will be moving only slowly and so giving potential rainfall totals of 20mm, locally 50mm.

Issued at: 1013 Fri 12 Jun

[Stuart]

look like i going to miss out on mondy but but things will change before then i hope

[03jtrickey]

A massive upgrade in Monday's storm risk from the latest GFS, reflected in the MetOffice's update.

http://cirrus.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs....84/ukcapeli.png

[Harry]

I'd expect the areas to change some what by Monday, but Surrey being in the zone and Greater London area, means my chances of being hit (while at work) are high! ...haha!!!!

[Nick F]

As usual, GFS going a little OTT with it's CAPE predictions for Monday inland across the UK.

Quite a sharp diffluent upper trough moving in from the west on Monday should increase instability along with day time heating to allow day time storms to pop up inland over E & W.

Again, apart from slow moving torrential downpours with risk of localised flooding and the odd weak convergence type tornado, can't see much of a severe threat with directional shear once again weak apart from over the near continent where a severe threat is much more likely.

Looks like the dreaded Azores High may nudge in later next week across the south, so make the most of what's on offer early next week!

[Paul Sherman]

Hmm this looks tasty

http://212.100.247.145/fax/PPVJ89.png?1244745648308

Seems the GFS Is falling into Line with the UKMO On this one.

MW Posted this chart yesterday evening which showed the Plume event heading towards the UK, Sundays chart shows the Front Incoming ready for Monday, should be some nice Moisture and Heat by then as well.

Certainly one to watch But as Nick says above the main Severe Threat ONCE AGAIN! Grrrrr Is going to be over in France and Belgium by the looks of things

Anyone fancy a Ferry trip next week

Paul S

[maidstone weather]

Seems the GFS Is falling into Line with the UKMO On this one.

MW Posted this chart yesterday evening which showed the Plume event heading towards the UK, Sundays chart shows the Front Incoming ready for Monday, should be some nice Moisture and Heat by then as well.

Certainly one to watch But as Nick says above the main Severe Threat ONCE AGAIN! Grrrrr Is going to be over in France and Belgium by the looks of things

Anyone fancy a Ferry trip next week

Paul S

Hi Paul, that chart has already changed Last night it was showing a trough over the English Channel at midnight tomorrow night, which looked OK for nearby storms to clip the SE - now they look likely to stay on the continent (as always!!)

[Nick F]

Seems the GFS Is falling into Line with the UKMO On this one.

MW Posted this chart yesterday evening which showed the Plume event heading towards the UK, Sundays chart shows the Front Incoming ready for Monday, should be some nice Moisture and Heat by then as well.

Anyone fancy a Ferry trip next week

Paul S

Plume doesn't make it to our shores, it stays over France then heads NE towards Benelux/N Germany, as shown by the Theta-e charts:

That's why a severe threat is much more likely on near continent.

The UK should have some moisture off the Atlantic to play with on Monday, but not the warm humid stuff plus strong jet needed for severe storms that stays to our S and SE.

[Harry]

Plume doesn't make it to our shores, it stays over France then heads NE towards Benelux/N Germany, as shown by the Theta-e charts:

Reduced 84%

800 x 670 (76.44K)

Reduced 84%

800 x 670 (75.22K)

That's why a severe threat is much more likely on near continent.

The UK should have some moisture off the Atlantic to play with on Monday, but not the warm humid stuff plus strong jet needed for severe storms that stays to our S and SE.

Hmm - sticking to the same thing then as has happened so far this year!!

Never know - the patterns may shift slightly and allow the plume to come closer - unlikely, but if it can change W to E, it can do it the other way round too!

We call it the dreaded Azores high, but that might be why we've seen such naff storms on the whole this year - at least the Azores high allows the sun to come out and do some warming (depending on wind flow of course as to how much) and then as hopefully it buzzes off further E, allow a low to come in and throw greater heat/humidity our way...that said, I hope I am back from holiday in time for anything like that to happen :lol:

EDIT - GFS already updated - looking less promising than the previous run already! Still going for decent CAPE for the bulk of the UK on Monday though Tues is looking like decent CAPE reserved for EA, possible SE corner too. It is detecting a somewhat intense plume event for the week I am on holiday (GRR) - but far too far off to be taken notice of - important thing, the hint is there.

Edited June 12, 2009 by Harry

[Tn9]

Plume doesn't make it to our shores, it stays over France then heads NE towards Benelux/N Germany, as shown by the Theta-e charts:

That's why a severe threat is much more likely on near continent.

The UK should have some moisture off the Atlantic to play with on Monday, but not the warm humid stuff plus strong jet needed for severe storms that stays to our S and SE.

I have took you advice Nick and im not looking for storms anymore,im looking out for days like today,not sunny,not raining,not windy,no showers,not too hot ,not too cold,bland as bland can be,let the French keep their severe storms,im glad i live somewhere where nothing much happens :lol: :lol:

[Nick F]

Looking forward to Monday then even though they won't be severe storms. Does look like alot of CAPE spread out over a large area so probably will downgrade in amount and size come the next few runs.

I suppose with quite strong speed shear (rather than directional) from the jet streak across SE UK on Monday afternoon, we could see a marginal severe threat with some organisation of storms into line segments capable of producing gusty winds, and also a threat of some hail ... this would probably be mainly confined to eastern England, especially east Anglia and E Midlands, where the winds are modelled at 50-60 mph at 500mb and 100 mph+ at 300mb.

Bound to be changes before then, but could turn out to be a pretty interesting day despite fairly low dew points and temps .... though where I live no doubt escaping the action which will be N and NW of London!