Convective/storm Discussion

[Snowyowl9]

Looking good monday thanks to the small high to the north, I always like to see slacks flows like this something we don`t see much recently,these will be the bubbling TCU thundery showers.

The low has been totally demolished though,wind direction light and variable,east by the looks to start nice!

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Recm721.gif

http://91.121.93.17/pics/brack2a.gif

[maidstone weather]

Hmm - sticking to the same thing then as has happened so far this year!!

Never know - the patterns may shift slightly and allow the plume to come closer - unlikely, but if it can change W to E, it can do it the other way round too!

We call it the dreaded Azores high, but that might be why we've seen such naff storms on the whole this year - at least the Azores high allows the sun to come out and do some warming (depending on wind flow of course as to how much) and then as hopefully it buzzes off further E, allow a low to come in and throw greater heat/humidity our way...that said, I hope I am back from holiday in time for anything like that to happen :lol:

EDIT - GFS already updated - looking less promising than the previous run already! Still going for decent CAPE for the bulk of the UK on Monday though Tues is looking like decent CAPE reserved for EA, possible SE corner too. It is detecting a somewhat intense plume event for the week I am on holiday (GRR) - but far too far off to be taken notice of - important thing, the hint is there.

We seem to have missed out on every plume event so far this year, and even when we do get a plume over us things go completely out of the window like the MCS on Bank Holiday Monday which scuppered everything! :lol:

[Phil UK]

15th April Maidstone Weather?? That was a (kind of) plume that took us in the Midlands by surprise with the oh why so frickin early thunderstorm? (7:20am)

METO's "Be aware" for Monday does suggest some potentially heavy and thundery rain over the bulk of England. But IMO, still to early yet to summise what, where and when. The pressure charts don't match with what they predict but seems like good amount of CAPE regardless.

Phil.

[maidstone weather]

15th April Maidstone Weather?? That was a (kind of) plume that took us in the Midlands by surprise with the oh why so frickin early thunderstorm? (7:20am)

METO's "Be aware" for Monday does suggest some potentially heavy and thundery rain over the bulk of England. But IMO, still to early yet to summise what, where and when. The pressure charts don't match with what they predict but seems like good amount of CAPE regardless.

Phil.

ah yes that brings back memories of the storms that crept up from France.... and then died over east Kent! :lol:

That gave the Midlands some good storms though :lol: :lol:

I've decided I'm moving to the Democratic Republic of Congo, as shown on this lightning frequency map from NASA: :lol:

(oh and if you look really closely the Midlands has a higher lightning frequency than the Southeast! :lol: )

Edited June 12, 2009 by maidstone weather

[Phil UK]

That is quite true, Maidstone Weather. We do have on average, more lightning. Generally with home grown storms then move north towards Sheffield, Leeds, Yaaaaaaaarrrrkshire and beyond where they intensify even further. Pennine uplift I suppose.

The same with tornados. 28th July 2005 and a thread which I read by Mr Data in Historic Weather, the same type of tornado (F2 on the Fujitsa Scale) hit pretty much the same areas (give or take a mile or two) many years before. Probably due to being urban, high buildings so creating that extra uplift.

Otherwise, the weather in Solihull as I type is sunny, some high cloud of the altocirrus type. But that's it. :lol:

Phil. (Jane Louise, have you finalised my lifetime pass to the No Storms Club yet? :lol: )

[Harry]

ah yes that brings back memories of the storms that crept up from France.... and then died over east Kent!

That gave the Midlands some good storms though

I've decided I'm moving to the Democratic Republic of Congo, as shown on this lightning frequency map from NASA:

Reduced 77%

508 x 544 (71.3K)

(oh and if you look really closely the Midlands has a higher lightning frequency than the Southeast! )

The best places are obviously tropical places such as DR Congo. I read some time ago that Java, Indonesia has the highest occurrences of thunderstorms - something ludicrous like 280-300 days in a year having thunder. When I went to Kuala Lumpur 10 years ago, in 14 days there was thunder on 5, some days yielding multiple storms. And that wasn't during their wet season :lol:

[karyo]

Well, this weekend is looking boring for England and Wales with the exception of the far north of England. Monday could be interesting as previous post suggest but after that it looks really uneventful with the high pressure coming into play. Oh dear!

Karyo

[Jane Louise]

(Jane Louise, have you finalised my lifetime pass to the No Storms Club yet? )

[Phil UK]

A possible ideology for our excellent NetWeather storm chasers in 2010 then, Harry.

Phil. (Just a thought!)

Hi Phil, you are now a life long member of the NSC now lol.( not forgetting me too lol) But if Mother Nature does finally send you a storm! you must notify me in writing lol and I will discontinue your membership. :lol:

Good luck for Monday :lol:

Jane, if I do get a storm. I will in course notify you in writing. Chances are however that I'll be stuck in your club for a while yet. Monday looks, erm... Borderline.

And if it does go to plan (This is Solihull remember!) Can I be issued a new pass in case July and August fail to materialise? (I'm in Exmouth for 10 days in September so that won't necessarily count).

Phil.

Edited June 12, 2009 by Phil UK

[Jane Louise]

A possible ideology for our excellent NetWeather storm chasers in 2010 then, Harry. :lol:

Phil. (Just a thought!)

Jane, if I do get a storm. I will in course notify you in writing. Chances are however that I'll be stuck in your club for a while yet. Monday looks, erm... Borderline.

And if it does go to plan (This is Solihull remember!) Can I be issued a new pass in case July and August fail to materialise? (I'm in Exmouth for 10 days in September so that won't necessarily count).

Phil.

A new pass will most certainly be issued in the coming months.But we all must remain positive (just like we always have done lol) :lol:

[Paul Sherman]

Yes, a good chance of storms in Ireland tomorrow, and parts of Scotland too. Even S/E England has a small chance of a storm tomorrow.

Copied over from Paul Knightley from Ukww!

Harry are you taking Note!

Paul S

[Harry]

Yes, a good chance of storms in Ireland tomorrow, and parts of Scotland too. Even S/E England has a small chance of a storm tomorrow.

Copied over from Paul Knightley from Ukww!

Harry are you taking Note!

Paul S

Cheers Paul!!

Though the bit that sticks out to me there is SMALL! lol - or negligible!

But yes well and truly taken note - which means also another exciting, if not ultimately pointless, day of radar watching.

I would assume that this refers to imports - or is there conversion/CAPE levels which are likely to appear. I know tomorrow is now meant to be around 23C, maybe higher which is nice!!

EDIT - Just checked latest GFS runs, and they are giving me nowt

MetO have light rain forecast for tomorrow night - of which I cannot see where its meant to be coming from. Can only assume it will be up from the South in which case I suppose could be thundery (if sustained and not killed by cool temps now forecast for tomorrow)

Edited June 12, 2009 by Harry

[stormnut]

LOL - METO have a warning out for Monday accross a large swathe of the UK

[maidstone weather]

Yes, a good chance of storms in Ireland tomorrow, and parts of Scotland too. Even S/E England has a small chance of a storm tomorrow.

Copied over from Paul Knightley from Ukww!

Harry are you taking Note!

Paul S

really? as much as i like the sound of that, from where?

[Paul Sherman]

really? as much as i like the sound of that, from where?

- Paul is one of the Main Forecasters for Torro so........watch this space but like you cant see it myself, maybe Nick F can shed some light on this

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/foru...s=4&start=1

[azores92]

- Paul is one of the Main Forecasters for Torro so........watch this space but like you cant see it myself, maybe Nick F can shed some light on this

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/foru...s=4&start=1

i think ill stick to the west midlands rather than kinshasa or kampala thank you very much. am i the only one who thinks monday shouldnt have a weather warning out? to me it looks like things seem none too exceptional for the day, as cape values seem rather medium, and it doesnt look very thundery or convective.

[maidstone weather]

That was an interesting forecast from Kaddy (our local BBC forecaster). She says that when she contacted the chief forecaster at the Met Office at 4pm (which every BBC forecaster has to do at the start of their shift) he told her that their confidence in this weekend's forecast was, and i quote, "at rock bottom". he also went on to say "good luck forecasting"

She also went on to say that next weekend we may be in the 30's Celsius!

So basically don't listen to what the MetO are saying this weekend and expect almost anything

Edited June 12, 2009 by maidstone weather

[dogs32]

weather woman who used to work for the BBC weather just said WIDE SPREAD SUPERCELLS....

i MEAN Thunderstorms for Monday

Edited June 12, 2009 by dogs32

[maidstone weather]

weather woman who used to work for the BBC weather just said WIDE SPREAD SUPERCELLS....

i MEAN Thunderstorms for Monday

who's that?

[dogs32]

The lovely woman with long red hair..cant remember her name...but she used to be good on the BBC,,,,Now I think its SKY......

yes she said Monday WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS for many

must be confident for early warning;s

Edited June 12, 2009 by dogs32

[maidstone weather]

The lovely woman with long red hair..cant remember her name...but she used to be good on the BBC,,,,Now I think its SKY......

yes she said Monday WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS for many

must be confident for early warning;s

Isobel Lang? (not that it makes much difference )

[jo200199]

The lovely woman with long red hair..cant remember her name...but she used to be good on the BBC,,,,Now I think its SKY......

yes she said Monday WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS for many

must be confident for early warning;s

No doubt I'll miss all the action again

[dogs32]

yes thats the one

well i thought she was good on the BBC with her predictions...

anyway she as been looking at the charts and sounds confident.....

If she gets it wrong i will have to cross her off my valentines list...lol

Im going to get prepared for this one just in case..camera's ready...

Sunday will be a crucial time

Jo , well at least its more promising than the other day

Edited June 12, 2009 by dogs32

[Harry]

Isobel Laing is who I was thinking of too!! She was generally quite accurate iirc! Though one of the best for thunderstorm forecasts that I can remember from my childhood was Michael Fish - you could tell he was secretly getting very excited when the DECENT OLD FASHIONED YET CLEAR (hint) symbols would appear, particularly during a plume event! I also remember Helen Young used to be good too!

As for the weekend, I really dont know..MEGA MEGA MEGA p'd off if temperatures get into the 30s next week while I am on holiday - even more so if it brings storms here!!!

[maidstone weather]

yes thats the one :wub:

well i thought she was good on the BBC with her predictions...

anyway she as been looking at the charts and sounds confident.....

If she gets it wrong i will have to cross her off my valentines list...lol

Im going to get prepared for this one just in case..camera's ready...

Sunday will be a crucial time :lol:

Well I'm surprised she's confident if the Met Office's confidence is at "rock bottom"

That was an interesting forecast from Kaddy (our local BBC forecaster). She says that when she contacted the chief forecaster at the Met Office at 4pm (which every BBC forecaster has to do at the start of their shift) he told her that their confidence in this weekend's forecast was, and i quote, "at rock bottom". he also went on to say "good luck forecasting" :lol:

She also went on to say that next weekend we may be in the 30's Celsius! :o

So basically don't listen to what the MetO are saying this weekend and expect almost anything

Edited June 12, 2009 by maidstone weather