Convective/storm Discussion

[Harry]

Can I have some of your optimism Harry. I'm gonna need it in the next few days I feel.

I think judging by the GFS runs at the moment, you are in one of the prime locations for Monday. If I am not mistaken, parts of the midlands are looking at a 70% storm risk - the SE at the moment has a 50% risk - so, if we have got a chance, you most definitely have

Besides - unlike the last few days, where storms have been generally speaking relatively isolated, Monday is forecast for very much widespread slow moving downpours. I think if you dont get hit direct, you wont have to travel far to get your fix. Myself on the other hand - will wait and see!

[dave48]

This potential thundery activity for early next week has been appearing in the charts for ages now so hopefully it will materialise. Might even head back up towards Bath which might be a better shout than Exeter but we will have to see closer to the time, it might be the other way round.

[anvilhead]

theres good jet support monday too - a screaming jet above us - some strong storms, but no supercell threat I'd say with a lack of turning wind profiles maybe .. we'll see hey

[maidstone weather]

Ah! The trough is back on for tonight, although still too far away to bring anything decent into the southeast! I wonder if we can pull it further north?

[SteveB]

Bugger, My area is covered by the meto early warning for Monday. Going by previous warnings covering my area Thats my chance gone

[maidstone weather]

The online video on the BBC Weather site with Liam Dutton says there may be some thunderstorms across Kent tonight - sounds interesting, but since the BBC have forecast it, I can't see it happening

[dogs32]

UK regions: East of England North West England Wales South West England Yorkshire & Humber West Midlands London & South East England East Midlands North East England Heavy Rain Mon 15 Jun There is a moderate risk of severe weather affecting parts of England and Wales during Monday. Heavy, thundery showers are expected to develop during the day and lasting well into the evening. These showers will be moving only slowly and so giving potential rainfall totals of 20mm, locally 50mm.

Updated: 0004 on Sat 13 Jun 2009

South West England:

Bath + NE Somerset

Bristol

Gloucestershire

N Somerset

S Gloucestershire

Swindon

Wiltshire

Heavy Rain Mon 15 Jun

There is a moderate risk of severe weather affecting parts of England and Wales during Monday. Heavy, thundery showers are expected to develop during the day and lasting well into the evening. These showers will be moving only slowly and so giving potential rainfall totals of 20mm, locally 50mm.

Monday for CAPE..991 j/kg

LI -5

Edited June 13, 2009 by dogs32

[maidstone weather]

Flash warning for all of Northern Ireland:

Northern Ireland

Heavy Rain 1400 Sat 13 2100 Sat 13

Heavy showers with hail and thunder will affect many places this afternoon and evening giving rainfall accumulations of 20 to 30mm in a 3 hour period.

[Andy Bown]

I'm going away till tomorrow night and, like the last time I was away (Bank Hol weekend), expect the thundery potential for the Monday to be downgraded nearer the time. Everyone's getting excited about a very hard to forecast event which is still 48 hours way. On Bank Hol Monday it went wrong on the day!!

Not being a killjoy to everyone's excitement about Monday, I'd seriously love a good storm or 8 , but trying to be realistic based on what happened just a few weeks ago.

[maidstone weather]

MetO have extended the areas covered for Monday, particularly into southern Scotland with the main emphasis being C + E England.

There is a moderate risk of severe weather affecting parts of England, Wales and Scotland during Monday. Heavy, thundery showers are expected to develop during the day. These showers will be moving only slowly and so giving potential rainfall totals of 20mm, locally 50mm. The showers will be slow to die out, particularly over Central and Eastern parts of England where the emphasis on the higher rainfall totals lie.

Issued at: 0953 Sat 13 Jun

East of England

North West England

Central, Tayside & Fife

Yorkshire & Humber

London & South East England

East Midlands

SW Scotland, Lothian & Borders

Wales

Strathclyde

South West England

West Midlands

North East England

Edited June 13, 2009 by maidstone weather

[Stuart]

whoooo good i may see my 1st storm of the year :o

Edited June 13, 2009 by Stuart

[SteveB]

I am with Andy Brown on this one. For sure some will see storms on Monday, but I don't think it's going to be a wide spread event.

Still I would love to be proved wrong.

[Harry]

My gut feeling of the storms coming close/over to the SE is seemingly a bit more real at the moment!

Can anyone locally confirm the humidity please? It feels very humid out, despite the breeze. The clouds are really trying to respond also, though seem to be hitting a cap of sorts above preventing development! Its the most thundery feeling day in the last week IMO

[Costa Del Fal]

Excellent storm potential continues on the GFS 06Z. Infact Cape is upgraded here to upto 1400 j/kg.

[maidstone weather]

My gut feeling of the storms coming close/over to the SE is seemingly a bit more real at the moment!

Can anyone locally confirm the humidity please? It feels very humid out, despite the breeze. The clouds are really trying to respond also, though seem to be hitting a cap of sorts above preventing development! Its the most thundery feeling day in the last week IMO

Yep i would agree with the feeling of the atmosphere this morning. The cloud is much more broken than the BBC were expecting, and cumulus are slowly growing but as you say seem to hit a barrier. But it definitely feels very warm and humid today. Fingers crossed for tonight, but tbh I'd be very surprised if anything happens - maybe Paul's prediction might come true (from UKWW)

[Harry]

Out of curiosity, where has Helen Willetts gone? Felt quite often that her forecasts were on the mark, and unlike some, would tell if you there was real uncertainty in the forecast!

Slightly encouraged by the "Chance of a thunderstorm clipping the far south-east of Kent" - that front only has to nudge a further 50 miles North and we are in business!

Edited June 13, 2009 by Harry

[frostyjoe]

hasnt anyone mentioned the flash warning from the meto for ni???

[Harry]

Yeah MW earlier I think

Flash warning for all of Northern Ireland:

Northern Ireland

Heavy Rain 1400 Sat 13 2100 Sat 13

Heavy showers with hail and thunder will affect many places this afternoon and evening giving rainfall accumulations of 20 to 30mm in a 3 hour period.

Here's the proof lol

QUERY - Just checking the pressure charts for the UK tonight - there appears to be a 'wave' around the SE/S coasts, a term which I've heard on forecasts to describe a kink in a cold front, where the prevailing front is cold, though a small section is warm. This has often been linked with heavy/intense precip.

Firstly, is what I think I know true? And more importantly, could this yield anything for later?

Edited June 13, 2009 by Harry

[maidstone weather]

hasnt anyone mentioned the flash warning from the meto for ni???

Flash warning for all of Northern Ireland:

Northern Ireland

Heavy Rain 1400 Sat 13 2100 Sat 13

Heavy showers with hail and thunder will affect many places this afternoon and evening giving rainfall accumulations of 20 to 30mm in a 3 hour period.

Harry i think she had a couple of children so probably left to look after them :o

[Costa Del Fal]

hasnt anyone mentioned the flash warning from the meto for ni???

Yes.

[Nick F]

While all this talk of Monday, risk of t-storms for Ireland, Scotland and far N of England today as per N-W storm forecast:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=...8046546482f37cf

Yeah MW earlier I think

Here's the proof lol

QUERY - Just checking the pressure charts for the UK tonight - there appears to be a 'wave' around the SE/S coasts, a term which I've heard on forecasts to describe a kink in a cold front, where the prevailing front is cold, though a small section is warm. This has often been linked with heavy/intense precip.

Firstly, is what I think I know true? And more importantly, could this yield anything for later?

Outside chance of some heavier pulses of rain with thunder tonight across S Kent coast and E Sussex coast looking at 06z UKMO meso.

[Stuart]

For the Scottish Borders

Heavy showers with hail and thunder are expected this afternoon and evening giving rainfall accumulations of 20 to 30mm in a 3 hour period.

The public are advised to take extra care and refer to 'Traffic Scotland' for further advice on road conditions.

Issued at: 1127 Sat 13 Jun

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/dg/...t_warnings.html

[Nick F]

Have added a thunderstorm area for far SE corner on the N-W forecast, as there appears to be some convetive type rain showing up tonight on 06z UKMO meso creeping across the east Channel associated with a wave developing in the trailing front.

[TornadoJo]

Hi All,

Whats the deal with today?

I have one of my headaches which normally means there's gonna be rain or a storm.

Very humid.

J x

[maidstone weather]

Have added a thunderstorm area for far SE corner on the N-W forecast, as there appears to be some convetive type rain showing up tonight on 06z UKMO meso creeping across the east Channel associated with a wave developing in the trailing front.

I'm in East Sussex until late evening, about 10 miles north of Hastings. Unfortunately it looks like 'it' (if anything, which i doubt ) will move up after midnight, by which time i shall be back here in Kent :lol: