Convective/storm Discussion

[J-Me]

Just had quite a short little storm over in Broadstairs as I left work - torrential rain and a few rumbles of thunder. Saw a fork of lightning towards Ramsgate as I walked across the carpark in heavy rain and bright evening sunshine!

[Snowyowl9]

My first storm last year was in mid March, some impressive lightning considering it was early spring. The thunderstorm Blizzards is referring to, just missed me by about 2 miles though I did catch one mega CG from it!.

Last July`s storm was a beast.

I saw a mega overhead CG yesterday took me by total surprise.

As for the next thundery batch Monday hopefully but the low looks very slack,then taking over into HP by tuesday now.

[Costa Del Fal]

My first storm last year was in mid March, some impressive lightning considering it was early spring. The thunderstorm Blizzards is referring to, just missed me by about 2 miles though I did catch one mega CG from it!.

Unless your on the East side of Birmingham perhaps im really surprised you missed it...it lasted for hours here!!!

[Costa Del Fal]

I live a few miles due North of the centre of Birmingham and that storm was basically over Birmingham towards North Stourbridge. I've seen some dark Cbs in my time, but that has to rank up there with one of the most threatening! If I was directly under that CG I witnessed, I would have seriously been bricking it!

We was right under it. We had one storm which lasted from about 5-5:30pm then another from about 6:30pm until 10pm with further High based lightning until about 1am!!!

[maidstone weather]

I've been looking at the UK MetO anomaly maps, and this map is quite striking. It shows the days of thunder anomaly - much of the southeast is 3 days below the average for May 2007, whilst the Midlands is at average. Proof the Midlands has more

Suffolk & Essex significantly worse off in June 2008:

July 2008 and parts of the Midlands is above average for thunder, whilst the southeast below average - spotted a trend yet?

Even September 2006 the Midlands was well above average whilst the Southeast was at average or below:

I hereby conclude the Midlands does better in terms of more thunder days (as opposed to intensity of storms), and I am yet to find a month where the SE has above average whilst the Midlands has below average

What is more worrying is the consistent trend each month for either average or often below average thunder days in the southeast

More here: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/

Edited June 11, 2009 by maidstone weather

[Harry]

Thanks for that MW - I think it proves what we have all been thinking for the last few years!!

As weather09 quite rightly says, bring on the monster storms

EDIT - MetO's forecast for the SE for the weekend - might be 'very warm on Sunday' - yet when you click on the graphics it has Sat 21C, Sun 21C, Mon 20C - maybe increasing humidity and watching storms pop off for northern areas, lol

Edited June 11, 2009 by Harry

[Tn9]

Yep - just had number 2 full on in margate.

great looking back edge.

Dave h.

What the storm or the bird buying ice creams on the beach [sorry a bit sexist]

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

I've been looking at the UK MetO anomaly maps, and this map is quite striking. It shows the days of thunder anomaly - much of the southeast is 3 days below the average for May 2007, whilst the Midlands is at average. Proof the Midlands has more

I hereby conclude the Midlands does better in terms of more thunder days (as opposed to intensity of storms), and I am yet to find a month where the SE has above average whilst the Midlands has below average

What is more worrying is the consistent trend each month for either average or often below average thunder days in the southeast

More here: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/

That doesn't mean the Midlands get more thunder days though, for example if the SE average was 6 and there were actually 5, and the Midlands average 3 and there were 4, then the anomaly for the SE would be -1 and the Midlands +1, but the SE would still have had more thunder days, if that makes sense!

Got a very interesting time lapse to upload from earlier with plenty of rotation during a shower, hopefully be ready to post soon

[maidstone weather]

That doesn't mean the Midlands get more thunder days though, for example if the SE average was 6 and there were actually 5, and the Midlands average 3 and there were 4, then the anomaly for the SE would be -1 and the Midlands +1, but the SE would still have had more thunder days, if that makes sense!

Got a very interesting time lapse to upload from earlier with plenty of rotation during a shower, hopefully be ready to post soon

very true however i think my main emphasis was the southeast is consistently below average, whilst the midlands is at or above average, which gives the illusion that storms are on the increase in the Mids and decrease in the SE

[dave48]

Hey MW,

I have spent loads of time looking at those charts on the met office over the past year, they are really interesting.

You are right though, it's been a rotten time lately for the south east with regard to thunderstorms. You guys 'should' really be getting 10-15 annually, and maybe more. Especially compared to the midlands who have done ok.

Last year in the, living in the south west I got 11 or 12, slight date issue so not sure, which was a fairly good year, although most of them didn't amount to much. A very poor record though this year, in fact thunder heard in Bath only once in over 8 months.

Apologies this is straying a bit off topic mods.

[Harry]

I thought that too Multi cellular storm - however, either way, we are struggling, big time lol!

It wasn't that long ago, when in the space of 1 year I would hope for at LEAST one, maybe a few, really banging night time thunderstorms! Day time I'd normally get a MINIMUM of probably 8-10 storm days in a season, with some days producing multiple storms. On top of that a few storm nights too - some nights with passing storms lighting up the sky, with some other days direct hits.

So far this year, and the last few years in fact, I find myself praying for a weak day time storm, let alone a few intense night time ones on top!

I know people explain the psycho babble about "you only remember certain events which makes you think in your head they were a regular occurrence years ago" - the reality is though there were far more years ago. It's unusual not to get a decent storm (or stormS) in May or June, but not to get any storms in May and now increasingly likely June, is peculiar indeed!

I wonder if the sea temps are cooling and is something to do with the melting ice caps (just thought I'd drop a controversial theory in there)

Edited June 11, 2009 by Harry

[Snowyowl9]

Looking at those maps May 2006 was a higher anomaly to last May,I`d put that close to evens here 3 days in 2006 as 2 days last May and more memorable bigger thunderstorms.

Edit:May 2007 that was thunder free.

Edited June 11, 2009 by Snowyowl9

[Tn9]

This year so far,we have not had a prolonged hot,humid plume have we,everything is far too progressive,before it can get established it is side swiped eastwards,luck as well has been lacking too.

Edited June 11, 2009 by TN9

[VillagePlank]

Conditions forecast for S/E today (London area) ..

Here's the forecast skew-t

Cloud heights not that great, not a great deal of shear, and convection almost entirely dependent on surface heating with progressively dryer air as you head upwards from 800hPa. Interesting to see 100% humidity at 800hPa (Tdd=0) However, being, forever, the hopecaster ....

Here's what would happen if the Tc between 700hPa and 600hPa was, say perhaps 0.5C cooler than forecast ...

Nice high (ish) clouds, and, with TT=51, thunderstorms become likely (rather than heavy showers), although convection initiation (LI/K) still marginal if not completely unsuitable! A case of if it initiates, then t/storms become likely, with the outside chance of a very isolated severe one. Initiation today - think somewhere of around 17C at the surface for midday, once again; breaks in the cloud are key today to get temps that high - main times to look out for between 11am to 4pm, I would say. In terms of location, I think I am going to have to go for the City of London, and S Essex, and N Kent, perhaps a little further North (tie in both negative values for most bouyant atmosphere, below) Possible high based storms in E Anglia later, but those will be very dependent on surface heating.

VP Handy hint - watch for risk area to advect (move) east during mid afternoon, but there's no escaping that the actual GFS forecast (see first skew-t) shows a very very low risk; perhaps one cell moving over the S/E area containing one or two sferics. Our best bet is something over Salisbury plain developing and moving East.

A rational forecast would call for showers, some heavy, occasionally thundery for the S/E region, today.[/quote]

Well, I did say. Maybe more luck later in the weekend ....

Edited June 11, 2009 by VillagePlank

[Snowyowl9]

Not many thunderstorms in 2007, but the one that occured on May 31st was one of the best I've seen. 45 mins of CG lightning strikes (5+ strikes a minute).

Did see some large CB`s later that day.

[UkStormChaser]

Something blowing up on radar west of my house. NE of Portsmouth.

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Here's a time lapse I did earlier this evening with some interesting rotating clouds...

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...=0#entry1541456

Like the look of the weekend and early next week, didn't think I would get excited for UK storms anymore since the US storm chasing.

[Harry]

Not many thunderstorms in 2007, but the one that occured on May 31st was one of the best I've seen. 45 mins of CG lightning strikes (5+ strikes a minute).

There's the theory then - Midlands more frequent storms, SE more intense storms (well - if we ever get another storm let alone one like below lol)

This is a classic import MCS! Note that this is May and proof that even early in the summer (or late spring technically) that the channel doesn't always sap the energy from storms.

[Tn9]

Here's a time lapse I did earlier this evening with some interesting rotating clouds...

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...=0#entry1541456

Like the look of the weekend and early next week, didn't think I would get excited for UK storms anymore since the US storm chasing.

Nice,good capture,i would not have noticed the fly if you had not said it,then i kept watching for it

[UkStormChaser]

Hmm i thought as much. Some isolated cells trying to develop west of my house. Could be interesting.

[Phil UK]

From 6pm, all became clear with a lovely cloudless sunset at 9:05pm-ish.

"Dear weather diary... Phil UK @ 11:19pm on Thursday 11th June 2009 :

Crap weather once again, a couple of showers, building Cu's then dissipated early evening. Otherwise pretty cool day as regarding temperature for June".

Hey! Could make this a feature... Weather diaries for certain locations. What do you think Paul et al?

Phil. (Well, just a thought!)

[Harry]

Hmm i thought as much. Some isolated cells trying to develop west of my house. Could be interesting.

Do you have a visual or can you only see from radar? As it is a very clear night, it could be a chance for me to see something distant should it develop

Harry, have you seen this vid taken in Folkestone, Kent in 2007. One of my favourites from the Kent area

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j3LSRAHEIRA

Oh yeah forgot about this one - I tend to prefer night time storms, but this is up top of the tree regardless - very tropic-like thunderstorm!!

I'm not fussy - I dont expect storms like this! Odd rumbles would be sufficient at this present crisis lol

Edited June 11, 2009 by Harry

[Tn9]

Hmm i thought as much. Some isolated cells trying to develop west of my house. Could be interesting.

Thats weird,wonder whats triggered them?thought it would have been to hostile for them to kick off at this time

[UkStormChaser]

Do you have a visual or can you only see from radar? As it is a very clear night, it could be a chance for me to see something distant should it develop

I don't have a visual as i have stupid trees in the way. Its defiantly on radar unless the radar is telling porkies.

Im beginning to think the radar is having a break down as one minute the storm was over me and now its gone back west. GRRRRR

OK..... someone else look at radar and tell me if they see what im seeing.

[Harry]

I don't have a visual as i have stupid trees in the way. Its defiantly on radar unless the radar is telling porkies.

Im beginning to think the radar is having a break down as one minute the storm was over me and now its gone back west. GRRRRR

How much of a 'storm' is it!? Just thinking about maybe taking a wander outside (thats desperate lol). There is definitely something down that way as it was showing up on the MetO radar at 11pm also.

Definitely something there - showing on both MetO and Meteox radars, and on the Meteox radar showing signs of intensification in each loop! Strange! I would've thought it could only be the CZ!? Didnt seem a great amount kicking off this afternoon, maybe there wasn't that much if a conversion and its waited til now to surprise us all lol....or not as is probably the case

EDIT - Nah, all but gone on the last radar loop! For the sake of severe weather discussion, rain approaching Ireland intensified significantly in the last half hour. Could be a drenching for N Ireland in the coming hours. Right - nothing else happening tonight - bed beckons! Night all!

Edited June 11, 2009 by Harry