Convective/storm Discussion

[Paul Sherman]

But what about me and poor old Harry :lol: Stop hogging all the Storms Carter!!! :wub:

**Harry if it gets into the 30's it is sure to end with an almighty bang, will get the pictures for you whilst you are away**

[Harry]

Well I'm surprised she's confident if the Met Office's confident is at "rock bottom"

Well I think I am right in thinking she is a competent, qualified meterologist with many years experience! No reason she shouldn't confident - the MetO on the other hand...2009 not been the best for them really has it.

Peter Cockroft for the London forecast on monday (as I live close to the border, I can get Peter for London or Kaddy for Kent) said 'expect a drenching' :wub:

But what about me and poor old Harry Stop hogging all the Storms Carter!!!

**Harry if it gets into the 30's it is sure to end with an almighty bang, will get the pictures for you whilst you are away**

There's been enough occasions in the last few years, whereby its been roasting hot AND humid, only for a complete dweeb of a cold front to come in a gently nudge the heat out of the way, with no fireworks! Hopefully if the 30s heat and humidity lasts all week, I'll be back early enough for the displays (Fri 26th evening)...fingers crossed. I will have my laptop with me keeping an exceptionally close eye on developments

Edited June 12, 2009 by Harry

[dogs32]

lol.....dont worry Paul......Isobel said the ESSEX drought is about to end

with the odd Super cell

she is fully qualified.....she studies and as access to thee met office daTA

Edited June 12, 2009 by dogs32

[maidstone weather]

Well I think I am right in thinking she is a competent, qualified meterologist with many years experience!

true i suppose Sky weather presenters don't have to keep "hush hush" and only say what the Met Office want them to say, like the BBC :wub:

[jo200199]

yes thats the one :lol:

well i thought she was good on the BBC with her predictions...

anyway she as been looking at the charts and sounds confident.....

If she gets it wrong i will have to cross her off my valentines list...lol

Im going to get prepared for this one just in case..camera's ready...

Sunday will be a crucial time :wub:

Jo , well at least its more promising than the other day

Well, as long as the METO don't put out a warning for us!!! If they do I know it's game over :lol:

[dogs32]

Paul I wonder if these MC'S are going be like the Plainview or Clinton Storms(lightning) :wub:

more like the Dallas lightning IF we are lucky...hope so.....

just like a great fantastic MCS from the old days...the Dallas one I mean

Edited June 12, 2009 by dogs32

[dogs32]

I have had a good look around on the Net,,,,,,Not much mentioning widespread Thunderstorms..

What is Isobel looking at..........anyone got any info on what she is looking at..

Edited June 12, 2009 by dogs32

[Harry]

GFS not keen on the idea of a heatwave next weekend, at the moment!!

The weekend after that though - raaaaaaar!!!

[dogs32]

ok from Isobel....lol

Monday widespread heavy showers with hail...Thundery in places...

this was on Sky multi.so I dont know when it was recorded.........

Channel 4 earlier she said widespread TS,,,,,

[Jane Louise]

ok from Isobel....lol

Monday widespread heavy showers with hail...Thundery in places...

this was on Sky multi.so I dont know when it was recorded.........

Channel 4 earlier she said widespread TS,,,,,

Looks like I'm gonna end up watching yer videos at this rate dogs if we get nowt lol.Hope you got my PM

[Neilsouth]

she is fully qualified.....she studies and as access to thee met office daTA

So? , doesn't mean anything as far as im concerned. Now if she is good at forecasting the weather with high accuracy then that'd be different ( as if ! )

[dogs32]

no didnt get pm.Jane.......

Anyway normaly Isobel from the past is usaully good at forecasts so some hope I feel...

So we will just have to keep an eye on some of the Senior forecasters on here and the charts

[A.J]

A quick question......members are mentioning 30C+ for next weekend....Where have they got this info from??.....GFS predicts around 20C for the south east next W/E with the warmest (low 20's) in central england...and even that is pure F.I at this stage...Any clues?

Edited June 12, 2009 by ajpoolshark

[dogs32]

she is fully qualified.....she studies and as access to thee met office daTA

So? , doesn't mean anything as far as im concerned. Now if she is good at forecasting the weather with high accuracy then that'd be different ( as if ! )

well I would rather listen to her than a quite a few of them And no forecaster is God..

a bit of a stupid response Neil......If the MCS turn up you just might have to unplug your comp..

AJ I have also heard through the web pipe line similar...Summer at last maybe

Edited June 12, 2009 by dogs32

[maidstone weather]

A quick question......members are mentioning 30C+ for next weekend....Where have they got this info from??.....GFS predicts around 20C for the south east next W/E with the warmest (low 20's) in central england...and even that is pure F.I at this stage...Any clues?

My local BBC forecaster Kaddy mentioned that we may (by far from a certainty) reach the 30's by next weekend

[A.J]

AJ I have also heard through the web pipe line similar...Summer at last maybe

My local BBC forecaster Kaddy mentioned that we may (by far from a certainty) reach the 30's by next weekend :wub:

Cool.......Heat, Sun, no work, bbq, large quantities of ale, and for desert, an after dinner thunderstorm.....lovely jubbly

[Paul Sherman]

A quick question......members are mentioning 30C+ for next weekend....Where have they got this info from

ECMWF Suggesting 28-30c for next weekend I am led to believe from other sources, but if I told you I would have to kill you

[A.J]

ECMWF Suggesting 28-30c for next weekend I am led to believe from other sources, but if I told you I would have to kill you

Here's hoping! (the bit about the heat next W/E.....not the bit about killing me.... :wub: )

[azores92]

Here's hoping! (the bit about the heat next W/E.....not the bit about killing me.... )

is it me or have the beeb just shown last nights forecast on weatherview?

[Snowyowl9]

Todays frontal cloud has broken up somewhat and some quite reasonably high bubbling cumulus have come from nowhere a bit unexpected.

Edited June 12, 2009 by Snowyowl9

[maidstone weather]

is it me or have the beeb just shown last nights forecast on weatherview?

I missed it but they might've done, they've done it countless times before

[Harry]

ECMWF Suggesting 28-30c for next weekend I am led to believe from other sources, but if I told you I would have to kill you

ECMWF forecasts I've just seen are suggesting L pressure to be hovering directly over the UK by next weekend - relatively warm pool of air though, so may bring some thundery activity. Cannot see how though looking at the CURRENT models 28C-30C would be achievable.

With H pressure though scooting across the UK to be replaced by Low pressure, any slight change to the position of the L and H pressure systems could see a decent plume set up, at the same time could see prevailing W/SW bringing similar rubbish June has brought so far.

What I have noticed though is a domination of L pressure systems around the Med including Portugal - so despite the reputation for unbroken sunshine I may be in for a big treat

EDIT - Latest GFS has pushed the storm risk for tomorrow evening ever so slightly further North, with now coastal areas of Kent in for a very small chance. If it keeps nudging North throughout tonight and tomorrow morning - Paul S's source just MAY be onto something....but this is a lot to ask 24 hours in advance! Will keep watching though....Estofex and UKASF have put out their forecasts for tomorrow and they seem confident it will hit Benelux as opposed to Kesurex! . N Ireland and Scotland looking very good though...lucky!

Edited June 12, 2009 by Harry

[Snowyowl9]

Well I never the slack low makes it through to tuesday unscathed latest.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/brack3.gif

[maidstone weather]

ECMWF forecasts I've just seen are suggesting L pressure to be hovering directly over the UK by next weekend - relatively warm pool of air though, so may bring some thundery activity. Cannot see how though looking at the CURRENT models 28C-30C would be achievable.

With H pressure though scooting across the UK to be replaced by Low pressure, any slight change to the position of the L and H pressure systems could see a decent plume set up, at the same time could see prevailing W/SW bringing similar rubbish June has brought so far.

What I have noticed though is a domination of L pressure systems around the Med including Portugal - so despite the reputation for unbroken sunshine I may be in for a big treat

EDIT - Latest GFS has pushed the storm risk for tomorrow evening ever so slightly further North, with now coastal areas of Kent in for a very small chance. If it keeps nudging North throughout tonight and tomorrow morning - Paul S's source just MAY be onto something....but this is a lot to ask 24 hours in advance! Will keep watching though....Estofex and UKASF have put out their forecasts for tomorrow and they seem confident it will hit Benelux as opposed to Kesurex! . N Ireland and Scotland looking very good though...lucky!

I might take a ferry to Ireland and chase some storms there, and then catch a quick flight back to the Belgium for the evening

Wednesday looks interesting, long way to go, but the southerly winds from the High to our northeast pull the 564 dam ever closer, mixing with the approaching cold front - bang perhaps?

http://212.100.247.145/fax/PPVO89.png

Edited June 12, 2009 by maidstone weather

[Harry]

I'd say!! Monday is well and truly back on, and with a trough expected to run through from roughly NW to SE, A CHANCE FOR THE SE!!! I shall get out the bunting...well, in the real hope it doesnt snatch the chance right from under us!

Unfortunately, Tuesday's chances have disappeared completely.

Still got a thin veil of hope for tomorrow night - L pressure is expected to move up/develop over C France throughout the course of tomorrow, with weather fronts to the North, probably the culprit for the Benelux bonanza and tantalisingly close to the channel! I just have a gut feeling - considering Estofex, UKASF and most importantly the MetO are seemingly giving it no pause for thought - there's hope