Convective/storm Discussion

[Harry]

Fair to say then that by and large today has been some what of a let down! Unless something of course kicks off later tonight which for the life of me I can't see, especially around my neck of the woods.

Nice!

Edited June 11, 2009 by Harry

[Paul Sherman]

I think the weather data on that site is from amateur weather stations?

edit: having said that, it is a similar scenario for the majority of stations in London, so it's probably correct.

No they are all Met office Stations - Very Strange

[morfius]

Fair to say then that by and large today has been some what of a let down! Unless something of course kicks off later tonight which for the life of me I can't see, especially around my neck of the woods.

Nice!

It's unbelievable how unlucky the south east has been this year in terms of storms - the only bit of thunder i've heard this year were about 5 claps on Saturday morning under a drizzly weather front.

[Tom D]

Very blustery, thundery shower just passing over now. A few rumbles of thunder and very gusty NW wind, raining sideways!

[Paul Sherman]

I think you will find Paul that it may be due to outflow boundary's from earlier showers/storms. Thats the only thing i can come up with.

Yep either that or the Breeze might be Onshore near the Coast

Cheers All - If something did find its way into those Dewpoints it could go out with a Bang!

[maidstone weather]

It's unbelievable how unlucky the south east has been this year in terms of storms - the only bit of thunder i've heard this year were about 5 claps on Saturday morning under a drizzly weather front.

and so the wait for a good storm continues for the southeast...

this is starting to get beyond a joke now...

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

First interesting weather since returning from the US, and it's bringing back memories.

I've seen mammatus under and anvil, torrential downpours, and even a uk variant of hail fog, 'rain mist' i'll call it Almost as good as a weak US storm!

Just got a timelapse going in time for the next shower, if it's interesting i'll post it up lster.

Mark.

[UkStormChaser]

That storm to the north of london is holding its own pretty well. The ones down near southampton and portsmouth are trying too.

Edit! OOOOH HOLD THE PHONES! Something trying to pop up right near me house. Could be interesting.

Edited June 11, 2009 by UkStormChaser

[Tom D]

That storm to the north of london is holding its own pretty well. The ones down near southampton and portsmouth are trying too.

Edit! OOOOH HOLD THE PHONES! Something trying to pop up right near me house. Could be interesting.

That one just passed over me, very blustery winds but only a few rumbles of thunder. Some heavy bursts of rain in there too.

[PersianPaladin]

There's been and still ongoing fantastic Cumulus Nimbus just about 10-15 miles inland would go and chase em but due to an extremely painful abscess in me gob i'll not be going anywhere..!! Looks like a line of 'heavy' showers/storms may hit here this time and i hope it has some electrical activity but like the early afternoon cell that just clipped Tyne & Wear will look promising but wont deliver.

Heres how the earlier cell looked like on radar.

and 20 mins later all but died..!!

Heres a couple of images i took as it approached.

All we got out of this was around 3 mm of rain..!!

Those strong radar returns indicate some very high intensity precipitation, albeit I think the radar can be misleading in terms of showing what is actually happening (in terms of falling precipitation). This is the case because doppler readings often extrapolate precipitation intensity with cloud height, cloud thickness and correllating such parameters with lapse-rates to gage water-content. However, there may not yet actually be precipitation occuring as long as strong updraughts occur and development continues. It looks like the cell hit an area of convective inhibition - cooler and drier air in the lower layers.

[saint]

That one just passed over me, very blustery winds but only a few rumbles of thunder. Some heavy bursts of rain in there too.

Tommy, there seems to be several smaller but more intense storms going around thre local areas, according to reports on local BBC radio?

[Essex Boy]

Looks like I could be in luck, massive dark clouds approaching my area here in Essex. Not sure if it'll have any storms in it, but it's what passed over from Stevenage by the looks of things. I shall report back with my findings...!

[Neilsouth]

It's unbelievable how unlucky the south east has been this year in terms of storms - the only bit of thunder i've heard this year were about 5 claps on Saturday morning under a drizzly weather front.

I prefer the storms that are not forecasted because they are usually the best ones

[UkStormChaser]

Thats strange! That storm north of london has organised a bit more, but on the radar loop it looks like its slammed on the brakes and now trying to move south?

[Tom D]

Tommy, there seems to be several smaller but more intense storms going around thre local areas, according to reports on local BBC radio?

Well from the radar it seems there's just the one cell, although it's fairly spread out with a small but intense centre. That centre bit went just to the northeast of me, just moderate but blustery rain here.

I haven't heard any more thunder since - usually they're most electric going over Stevenage and then Harlow, weakening as they go over Ware...

Thats strange! That storm north of london has organised a bit more, but on the radar loop it looks like its slammed on the brakes and now trying to move south?

I saw that too, but the image at 17:35 looks slightly off-set if you run through the sequence...

Edited June 11, 2009 by Tommyd1258

[Harry]

Look at the GFS run for Sat evening chaps!

Might just be me, but considering its only 2 days away! Compare the CAPE run to the storm risk run, and where do those storms, triggered off of amazing CAPE/LI values, seem to run on the storm risk map??

[UkStormChaser]

Look at the GFS run for Sat evening chaps!

Might just be me, but considering its only 2 days away! Compare the CAPE run to the storm risk run, and where do those storms, triggered off of amazing CAPE/LI values, seem to run on the storm risk map??

WHERE AT MATE?

[Harry]

Well judging by the storm risk, there seems to be storms setting off over France and then moving N towards the SE quarter of the UK over night and into the early hours. Relatively nice CAPE levels forecast into next week too

[Tn9]

Thats strange! That storm north of london has organised a bit more, but on the radar loop it looks like its slammed on the brakes and now trying to move south?

Perhaps the one developing over your house is sucking it in

[maidstone weather]

Well judging by the storm risk, there seems to be storms setting off over France and then moving N towards the SE quarter of the UK over night and into the early hours. Relatively nice CAPE levels forecast into next week too

i think we all know that ain't going to happen

time and time again, even if it stays the same, they will probably die over the channel

[Harry]

i think we all know that ain't going to happen

time and time again, even if it stays the same, they will probably die over the channel

Lets not forget though we are in the middle of June and judging by the GFS, and increasingly warm pool of air. I think we may even see an increase in predicted temps for the weekend, higher than the 21C-22C forecast at the moment. If the storms get big enough, the channel may not matter...we can hope anyway! lol

[UkStormChaser]

Well judging by the storm risk, there seems to be storms setting off over France and then moving N towards the SE quarter of the UK over night and into the early hours. Relatively nice CAPE levels forecast into next week too

Nice. Nothing wrong with a few imports.

Perhaps the one developing over your house is sucking it in

LOL!

[Costa Del Fal]

Next Monday possibly holds a very good chance chance almost everywhere except the far north and south east.

[PersianPaladin]

Next Monday possibly holds a very good chance chance almost everywhere except the far north and south east.

That will almost certainly reduce in geographic extent as we get closer to Monday. Its usually the case that the resolution for the area of regional convective instability is over-stated at this timeframe.

[Costa Del Fal]

That will almost certainly reduce in geographic extent as we get closer to Monday. Its usually the case that the resolution for the area of regional convective instability is over-stated at this timeframe.

Yeah there is plenty of time for change but it around Monday does look quite possible for thundery showers.