Storm/convective Discussion 26th June >>

[Harry]

Sun been out here all morning - v warm and humid - few towers been building this morning, two in fact building in unison to my E.

What is interesting is that the Cu seems to be moving almost W/NW, with a slightly strengthening easterly breeze. With a CZ expected to form along the M4 and push weather, potentially E, a lot of converging winds could hopefully lead to some exciting weather. Not sure whether I'll see much here, but it could get exciting for some!!

EDIT - Not looking great for working the early part of this week at least - Mon 30C, Tues 30C, Weds 31C - add on the customary degree or two - lovely!! Just imagine if we get that plume come off towards the end of the week, with temperatures like that - bang bang bang!!

Edited June 27, 2009 by Harry

[Nick F]

quick question Nick re. convergence zone.....will these potential storms just drift along the convergence zone?...if not, what direction would you expect them to track?.....cheers

Well, storms are normally steered by the mid-level winds, and although they are rather weak, storm motions should be towards N to NE albeit slow.

[Harry]

Laura Tobin just talking of the storms being further N than plumped for on here - I know there are a few CZ likely, but N EA, Lincs seems to be focus according to the graphics with them all spilling up the NE coastline - graphics indicating lighter showers along the M4 corridor.

Another interesting watch

[twister2005]

Yey, weather warning out for gloucestershire

[maidstone weather]

Yey, weather warning out for gloucestershire

that's a good thing??

[johnholmes]

NW forecast team are watching as convection sets off re any Alerts/Flashes.

I suspect that once they initiate the best way will be an Alert for those areas seeming to be most likely affected.

Take a look at the latest sat picc which shows where the sun is already heating the surface.

I suggest that anywhere that reaches 24C+ with dewpoints of 14C or more will be a breeding ground. That is NOT to say just because you reach those values you WILL get a storm. Life 'ain't that simple.

Watch the radar from early afternoon on, put the 850 and the 700 along with the 500mb wind flow pattern on and that will show where any individual storms are most likely to track. Look for low level convergence zones-surface winds flowing towards each other for those new to this; small pressure falls and possible mini surface low pressures forming will also aid the convection.

An interesting afternoon and evening I suspect for storm fans and as usual a frustrating one for those that don't get the storm they want!

Edited June 27, 2009 by johnholmes

[twister2005]

yes i think so means there is a small chance of seeing a storm. although saying that i am going to a bbq 2nite

[Snowyowl9]

Today looks alot more promising to yesterday which ended up a damp squib,with no sun as today the low cloud has broke up and there are some TCU starting and it`s certainly humid at 19.3c with no sun yet.

[Mike Storm]

just got back from driving in the van, noticed many tc's popping up, hoping for some action a little later this arvo, although Im goin to watch the planes up at biggin hope it wont spoil things too much

[sunny scunny]

Im surprised to see a weather warning for my area today. No chance of any rain let alone a storm

[Snowyowl9]

Well both winds at the 850mb and 700mb level are slack and don't seem to be moving anywhere but when I look at the winds at the 500mb level they show a NW direction. So if any storms form south of here then would I be right in saying they'll track towards the midlands, albeit rather slowly?

Showers are moving NW on the radar.

It`s very deceiving though as low cloud is coming in from the west walking speed. :lol: light wind south or variable.

Those TCU we got to keep an eye on which direction there going.

[willinkent]

Well here in kent its 25c and with a dew point of 19c very sticky yet again...... so we must be the breeding ground soon id of thought..... for east anglia etc..... sun is very strong here..... no storms here except half an hour of heavyish rain yesterday.....

[Azores Hi]

Lovely convection here in Ashford. The glider above me is certainly making the most of it. Free ride all day!

[Kain]

Met O warning out for shropshire for thunderstorms!

woot

[Cheese Rice]

Hopefully will get a storm, temp 21.c with a dp of 18.c

[Neilsouth]

We have an anvil to the south and scattered large cumulus clouds growing near it!! , if you are in canterbury you should be able to see it :lol:

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Anything for me today or its all for the northerner's? :-D

[OldGreggsTundraBoy]

No lightening anywhere yet today, still at least it should be mostly sunny and mid twenties temps. Wouldn't know what to do if there were strikes quite near me, i can't drive :lol:

I tried with bike when there was about 1,400 cape but it just ended up with me cycling 60 miles and utterly exhausted and nothing. Oh other than some black cloud shooting out a lightening bolt but that was MILES off.

[Kent Snow]

We have an anvil to the south and scattered large cumulus clouds growing near it!! , if you are in canterbury you should be able to see it :lol:

Indeed its looking black to the south. It developed very quick on the NW radar!

[davehowe]

We have an anvil to the south and scattered large cumulus clouds growing near it!! , if you are in canterbury you should be able to see it :lol:

Can see that anvil from Margate.

davehowe - margate

[dave48]

Look at this Met Office forecast! Sorry if already mentioned. It's for next week.

The weather will remain hot and humid on Thursday and Friday, possibly becoming very hot in inland central and southeastern England. Heavy showers and thunderstorms, becoming severe in places, are expected to develop in western and central areas on Thursday, moving into eastern parts on Friday.

Very early to make that prediction but very interesting never the less, unusual for them to mention the word 'severe'.

[maidstone weather]

We have an anvil to the south and scattered large cumulus clouds growing near it!! , if you are in canterbury you should be able to see it :lol:

yeah can see a nice N-S line of CB's over Ashford way, only a matter of time before it goes bang (i hope!)

[anvilhead]

No lightening anywhere yet today, still at least it should be mostly sunny and mid twenties temps. Wouldn't know what to do if there were strikes quite near me, i can't drive :lol:

I tried with bike when there was about 1,400 cape but it just ended up with me cycling 60 miles and utterly exhausted and nothing. Oh other than some black cloud shooting out a lightening bolt but that was MILES off.

I tried getting around london once when the beeb were going for 'special' storms in the SE - ended up being stuck on the m25 for 5 hours as they'd closed it due to an accident. possible the worst chase I've had, and there's been a few shockers!

http://www.sat24.com/frame.php?html=view&country=gb kent cells now showing up - i thought that was something north of southampton, but its just high level stuff .. get the feeling though that there'll be a few convergence lines around the south today, save the north hoging all the action

[dogs32]

Look at this Met Office forecast! Sorry if already mentioned. It's for next week.

The weather will remain hot and humid on Thursday and Friday, possibly becoming very hot in inland central and southeastern England. Heavy showers and thunderstorms, becoming severe in places, are expected to develop in western and central areas on Thursday, moving into eastern parts on Friday.

Very early to make that prediction but very interesting never the less, unusual for them to mention the word 'severe'.

and unusual this early Dave...Not often w e are warned so early....

Cloud bubbling here quite fast

sferic towards Liverpool

Edited June 27, 2009 by dogs32

[Harry]

Probably a gutter for a lot of northern areas - sun has been out here all day, blue skies with a few Cu around, some nice towers at times.

Even if something began popping up here which I cant see happening (E Kent probably benefiting from CZ activity?) I couldnt detect thunder what with all the jets roaring from Biggin Hill :lol:

Certainly is v warm here at the moment, I'd say 26C atm - does feel v hot especially in the sun with increasingly less breeze.