Storm/convective Discussion 26th June >>

[conor123]

Certainly having some downpours here tonight, its been really throwing it down on and off here recently, its like a river of water going down the road at the moment and the drains have burst, thankgoodness for being on a hill.

Extremely muggy aswell, and very misty.

Edited June 26, 2009 by conor123

[Phil UK]

Can't win them all, Weather09. Going back to 15th June, I had an overhead storm, best for a considerable admittedly while yet Birmingham saw nothing. I can actually confirm that where my Mum works, two shutters on either side of the factory she works in were both open. One side looking out, it was persisting down, the other side looking out was as dry as a bone.

It's called localised rain and as I remember my Dad telling me some years ago that he saw, and to narrow it down even further, he saw one side of the road soaking wet, the other kerbside bone dry. With thunderstorms and if a weather presenter suggests "Rain could be localised" then that is exactly what he/she means.

However, I'll just wait until 15th July. If you check my stats in my sig. Both storms this year occured on 15th. Mmm? Omen??

Phil.

[Lewis]

Morning everyone, just on the night shift (in my home) doing live support on my websites, dam it's humid, 33c inside around the computers . Outdoor temp reading 14.6c which is muggy enough for a night time temp, i have a feeling things are gunna go out with a bang soon, it's gotta this muginess has to bugger off

[jo200199]

Me and my sis av just got in and OMG.....how muggy...plz give us torm to clear it up

Morning everyone, just on the night shift (in my home) doing live support on my websites, dam it's humid, 33c inside around the computers . Outdoor temp reading 14.6c which is muggy enough for a night time temp, i have a feeling things are gunna go out with a bang soon, it's gotta this muginess has to bugger off

here! here!!!!

[Phil UK]

Seems like this front has been stuck in the same area... (North Wales over the Midlands down to South East England) for the last several hours. Mist, murk, cloudy...

Current temp : 17.2ºc

Indoor Temp : 24.4ºc

Humidity : 94%

DP : 16ºc

Sleep chances : AAARRGHH!!!

Still, if stuck in the same area in the next 12 hours. Could see some real convective development south of it.

Good luck, and may your storms go with you. Incidentally... Isn't what much of the middle strip of the UK rainfall be had today belong in Glastonbury? It ain't Glastonbury unless it's muddy!)

Phil. (Now off to try to sleep. Outside might be a wise option!)

[andy_leics22]

Had some intense rainfall around 13:30 that reduced visibility to a few feet with the road disappearing under the deluge.

However, it was between 16:00-17:00 that the real rain came crashing down with just a little offering of thunder and lightning. Peak rainfall rate of 72 mm/hr, producing 15mm in total today.

I find that amazing, here 20 miles North East in Leicester we had about 2mm of rain at 3pm and then that was it. I saw loads of heavy stuff below us on the radar but by the time it reached here it didn't last long and I think most of the heavy stuff missed me by about 5 miles to the West.

[03jtrickey]

*FAINTS*

Are we still in the temperate zone or have we had some rapid plate tectonics overnight?!

Shame I won't be here to experience it

[Jane Louise]

I hope we see something today! Just waiting on this mist and low cloud to move away.

[twister2005]

Morning all, would be nice to see something today yesterday the rain was so heavy and just a little bit of thunder, hopefully with the heat next week we might see some big summer storms, now that would be good

Edited June 27, 2009 by twister2005

[dogs32]

the weather guy on the Beeb looked confident on saying that a few Thunderstorms are going to be around today from the M4 northwards........anywhere from this line could get a torrentail down pour............Also he mentions next week is going to hit 31 or ABOVE

Edited June 27, 2009 by dogs32

[maidstone weather]

*FAINTS*

Are we still in the temperate zone or have we had some rapid plate tectonics overnight?!

Shame I won't be here to experience it

wow!! we all know the GFS under estimates maximum temps, so for that day we could be looking at 34C!

[VillagePlank]

Some potential for London and the S/E, later today ... here's the skew-t

This paints a moderately to low convective environment (K=26) although overall the atmopshere is unstable enough to make thunderstorms probable (LI=-4, TT=48) although they will be scattered, and even more hit and miss than in recent weeks. Convection should initiate at 17C, and reasonably high CAPE, 900 j/kg, should start to be exploited at temperatures above 21C, although a CAPE value this high, but lower than 1,500 j/kg means that the storms may form too slow to beat dusk (the best skew-t is for 18z) There is some indication of a Tdd boost at two layers, but it is not necessarily moist enough all the way up to properly exploit it, so high surface Td is essential, today.

Best risk from 00z for t/storm formation is just north of the M4 with more weight placed on the eastern edge, say Cambridgeshire.

Edited June 27, 2009 by VillagePlank

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

*FAINTS*

Are we still in the temperate zone or have we had some rapid plate tectonics overnight?!

Shame I won't be here to experience it

Looks very impressive, but it's FI watch it decrease as we get closer!! Bet the temperature will be below 30 but the CAPE will slide down to less than 50% of what that chart is saying

[Cloud 10]

Looks like somewhere in southern england will break the 90f mark this week.

GFS going for temps of over 100f for sw france on friday.

Wednesday could be a "humdinger"day for storms with all the heat and humidity as well as a trough,so plenty of interest this week,maybe even for us storm-starved north-easterners.

[VillagePlank]

My tip would be Gloucester, or just 'downstream' of there for a good light show on Wednesday

[Dp1981]

suppose to be having a bbq this afternoon whats the chances of being spoilt with yesterdays few rumbles and today getting something?

[VillagePlank]

suppose to be having a bbq this afternoon whats the chances of being spoilt with yesterdays few rumbles and today getting something?

Low. North of the M4, and further East is better, but nowhere can be ruled out for the odd heavy shower with very scattered thunderstorms.

Edited June 27, 2009 by VillagePlank

[twister2005]

i am also going to a friends for a bbq, what are the chances of anything popping up in this area today ?

[dogs32]

well at least its going to be sunny soon.....

On sat24 the sun is moving up across the country..

Hopefully we see some nice convection today

Twister 2005 it could be anywhere

Edited June 27, 2009 by dogs32

[VillagePlank]

i am also going to a friends for a bbq, what are the chances of anything popping up in this area today ?

Higher but not great, further East (or to a lesser degree, closer to Cheshire) is better.

[twister2005]

Hopefully it will be sunny and hot, would be nice to see some convection, love watching the clouds bubble up

[ANYWEATHER]

A quick look to the end of the week and the ecm shows more of a potent low moving in from the Atlantic of course its a long way off but "if" that does happen then perhaps a nice firework display considering the heat and humidity over the country by then! ......to the here and now, and lot of wind convergence ocer the southern half of the uk today. So convergence storms are certainly possible today and Ive highlighted in red where that possibility is..... [looks as though the sw midlands ,east/se wales across to central southern england and the se of England have a chance.

Edited June 27, 2009 by ANYWEATHER

[Supacell]

Wow looking at some of the charts for next week is filling me with real excitement. The last time temps got over 30C for more than the odd day in the odd place was 2006, and there were some great storms that year!

If those CAPE values for Weds and Thurs were to be realised then we could be in for some spectacular lightning shows, and they would last well into (if not all the way through) the night. I don't remember seeing the 80% plus risk on the charts in this country before!!! Still time to downgrade, but even with half those CAPE values we would still be in for some real good thunderstorms

Cloudy and dull here atm, but it is still very warm and muggy. Think it will be a hot one if the sun can break through. I'm still planning on a storm chase today and it still looks as if areas just to the n and w of London look best - or maybe following a line just north of the M4 as a result of wind convergence.

Edited June 27, 2009 by Supacell

[Jane Louise]

I can't wait until next week I will be camping,it's gonna be great to see some good storms.

[A.J]

all this talk of bbq's is making me hungry...ok, executive decision time, I'm taking the day off work and having a bbq this afternoon....All I need now is this low-level drizzly muck to burn off, and I'll be in good shape.....If mother nature is listening, I would be greatful for an evening thunderstorm, but not before 6PM, as I've be still serving jelly & ice cream to the kids at 5:45pm....thanks in advance.....lol