Storm/convective Discussion 26th June >>

[maidstone weather]

It's worth noting that CAPE is likely to be downgraded and the risk area will most probably move, too.

east with any luck B) (based on past experience)

[Jane Louise]

no same here Andy.......its a shame you cant have one or the other...

waiting for the GFS updates now at 10.45

Hi dogs,

Is there a link to find out the GFS updates? I'm still learning lol

[dogs32]

Hi dogs,

Is there a link to find out the GFS updates? I'm still learning lol

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

B)

I just realised they have already have been updated.so next one's around 3 ish if I remember correctly

Edited June 27, 2009 by dogs32

[Neilsouth]

it's been looking threatening on the underside of the clouds for the past three hours or so, but nothing has come of it... yet? B)

We have a line of altocumulus today above us , but in your direction is a line of cumulus growing. Looks nice , not sure if we are do anything today

[VillagePlank]

not sure if we are do anything today

My go at a forecast, here, I'll update it and post a risk map with the 6z B)

Edited June 27, 2009 by VillagePlank

[andy_leics22]

no same here Andy.......its a shame you cant have one or the other...

waiting for the GFS updates now at 10.45

I think there is some big potential for next week, I would be surprised if the GFS downgraded it hugely. The fact that it is going to be hot and there is unstable air around... That can only mean explosive weather B) I would like to see a nice thundery downpour after a hot 30c day though, lovely way to cool things down :o When I was a kid I remember during the hot summer days, sometimes it would get so hot and too hard to sleep at night. If there was a big storm though in the evening/overnight it would clear the air and make things a lot more bearable.

I love hot weather and sunshine but when it's hitting 30c+ in the UK then it can sometimes be a bit too hot. I remember my auntie who lives in Spain saying when she last visited us... "It regularly reaches 30c in summer in Spain but our houses are made for the heat, we don't have carpets or any insulation but here in the UK the houses are designed for winter weather so when it gets hot the house doesen't stay as cool as it does in Spain" Which is very true.

[Jane Louise]

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

B)

I just realised they have already have been updated.so next one's around 3 ish if I remeber correctly

Thank you It's certainly looking good here for today.The sky is clearing now and the sun is starting to come out. :o

[Neilsouth]

Cheers VP B)

[dogs32]

no they updating NOW

Its in the process stages

[Nick F]

Netweather has issued a forecast for storms today over quite a wide area of England and Wales + perhaps SW Scotland and N. ireland:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

Sould be good with clearer skies than yesterday to see CBs develop ...

[Costa Del Fal]

Am I invited? B) I'll bring the charcoal!

I think you are likely to catch some showers this afternoon, hit and miss though, some places will get a downpour and 10 miles down the road will be dry.

There is nothing rainfall wise on the radar in our area yet and the sun is breaking through now. It should be very warm though.

[VillagePlank]

Here's my go ...

Red circles are interesting areas where additional factors may increase chances of t/storms. SW Wales ever so slightly just missed out ... I didn't look at NI, or Eire ...

When the forecast skew-t comes out I'll do an update for London area.

Edited June 27, 2009 by VillagePlank

[dogs32]

thx for the forecast Nick..

and VP

Sun trying to come out here

Edited June 27, 2009 by dogs32

[user700]

Hi, I like the Met Office forecast for the next three days Each day there is a risk of heavy showers developing, mainly through the afternoon and evenings, with an increasing likelihood of thunder each day. Becoming very hot. B)

Danny.

[conor123]

If its rains today i will actually be devastated, having to move camping trips/barbeques etc all the time because this town is a raintrap.

What happened to the 25c and sunshine forecast yesterday for today? 19c and dreary mit now looks the case.

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

I think there is some big potential for next week, I would be surprised if the GFS downgraded it hugely. The fact that it is going to be hot and there is unstable air around... That can only mean explosive weather B) I would like to see a nice thundery downpour after a hot 30c day though, lovely way to cool things down When I was a kid I remember during the hot summer days, sometimes it would get so hot and too hard to sleep at night. If there was a big storm though in the evening/overnight it would clear the air and make things a lot more bearable.

I love hot weather and sunshine but when it's hitting 30c+ in the UK then it can sometimes be a bit too hot. I remember my auntie who lives in Spain saying when she last visited us... "It regularly reaches 30c in summer in Spain but our houses are made for the heat, we don't have carpets or any insulation but here in the UK the houses are designed for winter weather so when it gets hot the house doesen't stay as cool as it does in Spain" Which is very true.

Just had a look at the old 00z before the 06z is out, and I don't think I can remember seeing such good Cape/Li values for the North East. Most of next week has Cape over 1000 here, and even around 2000. I'm normally getting excited with 2-300!

Here's my favourite, although it is quite far into the run.

I wish I was off work next week, it's going to be unbearable sitting in an office with windows on two sides, they let plenty of sun and heat through, but they don't open so it gets up to 30C even when it's not hot outside. Also if we do get storms up here before 5pm, i'll be stuck at work which will add to my frustration. Maybe I could fake a faint, get sent home and go chasing!

I really don't enjoy hot weather but if it's going to bring storms then bring it on! :o

[dogs32]

Mark BBC weather guy mentioned the temp hitting 32oc in some spots B)

GFS now on Tues

Edited June 27, 2009 by dogs32

[VillagePlank]

I think the hopes for the far S/E rely on a bit of a dewpoint depression boost later on ...

And yes, tenuous, is a word I would use, let's just see what the London forecast skew-t shows B)

Edited June 27, 2009 by VillagePlank

[Costa Del Fal]

If its rains today i will actually be devastated, having to move camping trips/barbeques etc all the time because this town is a raintrap.

What happened to the 25c and sunshine forecast yesterday for today? 19c and dreary mit now looks the case.

Well not here-the sun is breaking through now and its very warm. B)

[I can't believe it's not better]

GFS showing a 70% chance of storms centred about Hertfordshire or Cambridgeshire area tonight.

Doesn't look like anything will reach as far west as here. Shame, because the water butts need a refill.

[johnholmes]

I think the hopes for the far S/E rely on a bit of a dewpoint depression boost later on ...

And yes, tenuous, is a word I would use, let's just see what the London forecast skew-t shows B)

here you are

Td 14+ and T=23-24C or more and off they go again

Edited June 27, 2009 by johnholmes

[Nick F]

Be interesting to see where and when the sea breeze front develops inland from the south coast today across Sern England, as this area looks likely to be the focus of some quite potent storms later.

GFS indicates this CZ developing roughly along the M4 corridor by 15z, quite tempted to drive out towards Berks/Wilts/Oxon later if it looks like Cu will develop, though traffic will probably be a nightmare.

EDIT: looking at that Herstmonceux sounding John's posted - inland across the SE we are expecting temps of 27 or even 28C and dewp of high teens, so initition looks quite achievable from that ascent and cloud tops would reach 35,000ft. Would need to be away from coast though where slightly more stable conditions are likely. Best chance towards M4/Thames corridor.

[WindWatcher]

It's currently just 15C here in Southampton under thick cloud, some 7 DegC lower than London.

Let's hope this cloud shifts quickly or it will be the second day in a row that we have missed out due to cloud cover.

[dogs32]

big down grade for WEDNESDAY...compared to earlier....hopefully an upgrade by next week.....

BBC..going anything north of M4 for today for some potent TS

as Nick also quoted

Edited June 27, 2009 by dogs32

[VillagePlank]

here you are

Td 14+ and T=23-24C or more and off they go again

Thanks, JH B)

Looks to me as if key point is 600hPa. It shows as very moist so, I think, it should be enough to boost the air parcel up to, say, 300hPa; which gives us a long shot, I think. As you say, just need the surface heating to be vigorous enough to keep it going, or for other factors to come into play.

EDIT: just seen Nick's post - sorry for duplication!

Edited June 27, 2009 by VillagePlank