Storm/convective Discussion 26th June >>

[Supacell]

On the face of it the areas north and west of London look good tomorrow on 12z GFS with an area of convergence, high CAPE and low LI. It will be very warm and humid too. This may be my target area for a chase but I shall have another look in the morning.

[dogs32]

Wow I've just looked on the MetOffice and they're actually forecasting 30C in Cheltenham on Tuesday now

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/sw/...ecast_temp.html

I wouldn't bet any money yet, especially after what happened on 25 May

tomorrow as got me confused...nothing new..lol..

BBC going for Isolated small well scattered storms.........web sites forecasting more storms than Isolated

Edited June 26, 2009 by dogs32

[03jtrickey]

I am going to Buckinghamshire tomorrow!

Does this look better for storms?

Sod's law is telling me it'll kick off in Cheltenham when I'm over there!

[dogs32]

James I personally dont think there will be much tomorrow.....

Your better off in Austria on your trip where they can get some beasts over there...goodluck

[Rob]

had some thunder here during the early hours of this morning, no more forecast in the near future

[dogs32]

well if I am correct the South West had the Best and Wales South out of this lot....

I think that dying Anvil from France killed our chances today with all of its cloud..

What puzzled me was that the lightning didnt die across the channel but as soon as it hit land...

Just the East and the Midlands have been left out this year....I think

who will get the next lot...

GFS looking good for a very active week ahead....so fun radar watching yet again...

[maidstone weather]

What puzzled me was that the lightning didnt die across the channel but as soon as it hit land...

to be fair dogs - it's been doing that all year here in the SE, and it has really puzzled me!?

[Lightning Ed]

What puzzled me was that the lightning didnt die across the channel but as soon as it hit land...

I used to goto the coast every time a good storm was on its way. Pretty much every time for me they died. I gave up in the end!!

[dogs32]

to be fair dogs - it's been doing that all year here in the SE, and it has really puzzled me!?

but its normally the opposite way around.....I watched the loop in the early hrs on radar with all the sferics going ballistic across the channel....Hitting the land there was a fast detoriation of lightning......was it the temps before dawn that killed this......

This is why I stayed up most of the night knowing the sea wasnt killing them....behold the damn land did

Edited June 26, 2009 by dogs32

[03jtrickey]

Damn, Wednesday's looking quite the beast at the moment- just the day I'm going off!

Oh, and we have a storm risk from Estofex: http://estofex.org/

Edited June 26, 2009 by 03jtrickey

[Guest]

Seems to be some sferics still on the 22:55 radar, around Peterborough-ish I think. Anyone around there?

edit- LOL at the above CAPE chart. Quite ridiculous amounts of instability! Would love that to remain the same - we shall see.

Edited June 26, 2009 by CAPE-steve

[dogs32]

james -6 above your house

yes more sferics on radar.....

[03jtrickey]

james -6 above your house

yes more sferics on radar.....

You better have some tornado pics for me when I get back

[maidstone weather]

Wednesday FAX chart just out: http://212.100.247.145/fax/PPVO89.png BIG storms

[A.J]

sferics showing up near me, with a sharp shower very near to my SE......think they might be false detections though, went outside in the garden for a good 15 mins scanning the sky....nothing

[cyclonic happiness]

been raining moderately for the past 15 minutes with nothing showing on the radar.

The big storms of earlier got next door's old willow tree so sodden that half of the thing collapsed under the weight destroying 4 gardens along with it!! lucky for us it fell the other way.

[A.J]

the latest radar grab for the west midlands.......

still some heavy rain moving from shropshire into north wales, plus something bubbling just to the north and NW of brum, couple of sferics associated with it, not sure whether its anaprop though, as the radar has been playing up a bit the last couple of hours....One thing for sure is that its incredibly humid and warm outside, currently 19.4C!

[Paul R]

the latest radar grab for the west midlands.......

still some heavy rain moving from shropshire into north wales, plus something bubbling just to the north and NW of brum, couple of sferics associated with it, not sure whether its anaprop though, as the radar has been playing up a bit the last couple of hours....One thing for sure is that its incredibly humid and warm outside, currently 19.4C!

The heavy rain moving over North Wales at the moment doesn't seem interesting at all. I've been listening for thunder all evening and heard nothing, and it seems to have gone fairly cool outside here at the moment. While the rain is forecast to linger for a few hours, it's nothing worth me staying up for the odd rogue rumble. Night all.

[Guest]

Maybe weather_09 could enlighten us to what's going on near Brum. If there are really sferics then I'm sure he would be able to see them

[stormyskys]

Maybe weather_09 could enlighten us to what's going on near Brum. If there are really sferics then I'm sure he would be able to see them

i'm in tamworth just north of brum, just been outside apart from abit of light rain can't see any lightning.

[Guest]

Ah, thanks for the report

[A.J]

had another cigarette in the garden, nothing weatherwise to report, apart from the fact that its damn warm...a few moderate showers nearby, but thats pretty much your lot.....and with that, I'm off to get some kip

[Phil UK]

I think, that for this weekend only, I'll just move my ass back into the 'No Storms Club'.

Right, so a perspective from Solihull. (26/6/2009)

After a nice hot and sunny week, the breakdown proper began at around 12:30pm with dark cloud encroaching and sporadic but short lived spells of heavy rain. 3:20pm saw an almighty spell of rain that I've not seen in such intensity for quite a while, lasted all of 5 minutes or so but turned our footpath into a streaming river.

The front which appeared to me to become stuck over the Midlands and North Wales, easterly curvature to north London and the intensity of the rainfall, plus some very dark skies. Not often do I have to switch on the living room lights at 2pm at the back end of June.

It did remind me of 5th September 2008, although that was a more prolonged feature which was probably less intense but more continuous.

But regarding yesterdays event. Not one single clap of thunder, not even distant. I would have heard otherwise as I've had the patio door wide open for much of the day due to the sheer humidity even if a max of 21ºc attained.

Disappointed? Yes, but it's not over yet it seems and if predictions are correct, then a possibility of 32ºc (Probably Heathrow! ) then it could really get interesting sometime early next week. I'll pinpoint Tuesday, end of June out with a bang.

Phil.

[Paul R]

Moderate/Heavy rain here at the moment, that's it. But the refreshing cool air with it is very welcome.

[SnowJoke]

Nothing stormy around these parts to report, other than the fact is still damn hot, just below 20'c outside and nearly 28'c in my room. Going to be great for sleeping. Think im going to invest in one of those portable air conditioning units if the weathers forcast to get hotter and stormier.

Looks interesting for tommorrow again for big showers and possibly storms if initiation is storng enough. Hoping to see something as todays storm was more or less pointless, few rumbles and bangs and died a death as it moved off towards northampton.