Storm/convective Discussion

[SteveB]

Richard Angwin on the local West Country forecast, went for big storms on Thursday.

I think that is our last chance to see anything storm wise.

[dogs32]

Richard Angwin on the local West Country forecast, went for big storms on Thursday.

I think that is our last chance to see anything storm wise.

Yes Penny Tranter said.....Concerned as a large area of rain will be very heavy with TS from the West.

They are keeping an eye on the developments....will all go off with a bang ..her words

looked convinced

[Carl46Wrexham]

Yes Penny Tranter said.....Concerned as a large area of rain will be very heavy with TS from the West.

They are keeping an eye on the developments....will all go off with a bang ..her words

looked convinced

Dont believe them....dont believe them....dont fall for it...It'll only end in disappointment if you fall for it.

Expect nowt and then if (and it's an IF the size of the planet Jupiter) things do kick off it'll be a huge bonus.

[Paul R]

Just seen the radar and the storms over Mid and West Wales. I don't think they'll head my way but I might catch a distant flash of lightning to the west later on as they move North into the Irish sea.

[Shaun L]

Just seen the radar and the storms over Mid and West Wales. I don't think they'll head my way but I might catch a distant flash of lightning to the west later on as they move North into the Irish sea.

Gonna sit on the beach later if they are still active as we look directly over towards snowdonia(although it is a long way off)

[Paul R]

Gonna sit on the beach later if they are still active as we look directly over towards snowdonia(although it is a long way off)

Thing is for me, visibility over that way isn't too good; the land rises pretty rapidly from here. I won't see those storms until they're out in the Irish Sea.

Edited June 30, 2009 by Paul R

[Rob]

more storms for the midlands!

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Richard Angwin on the local West Country forecast, went for big storms on Thursday.

I think that is our last chance to see anything storm wise.

He was ramping up the storms last week and they were hardly to be seen!

Where has he got the idea that there will be loads of thunderstorms in this area on Thursday? Really cant see it happening, but hope he is spot on!

Edited June 30, 2009 by RAIN RAIN RAIN

[TonyH]

more storms for the midlands!

Where? Not evident on the radar and the Midlanders are very subdued this evening!

[Harry]

A small shower, showing slow but constant intensification, is just brushing past IoW.

Probably fizzle out along with the rest of todays precip lol

[Paul R]

May well see a storm in the next few hours here. The storms in Central West Wales are just starting to take a more NNE track it seems.

Edit: They are weakening considerably it seems. While it is possible we might get a downpour later, any electrics with either be subdued or non-existant.

Edited June 30, 2009 by Paul R

[Shaun L]

May well see a storm in the next few hours here. The storms in Central West Wales are just starting to take a more NNE track it seems.

Ssssssssssssshhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!! You'll jinx it !!!!

[simon1]

Where? Not evident on the radar and the Midlanders are very subdued this evening! :lol:

No point posting if there is nothing happening here!

[Snowyowl9]

A good few distant booms from that thundery Anvil out west,then another huge developing CB just south of that,too far away to here much thunder,did here a couple of very distant rumbles 1 sounded like a distant explosion.

[Supacell]

more storms for the midlands!

Where??? Am i missing something????

As for later this week. SBCAPE has certainly downgraded and so has the storm risk (GFS), however, are the storms that the met office are talking about of the elevated variety? GFS storm risk charts never pick up on them very well.

Looking at tomorrow... I think some parts of north and east Wales and N England could do well tomorrow with some wind convergence and pretty decent CAPE.

[liamcymro]

We must have a storm shield or something here - No thunderstorms at all apart from a few far rumbles - It must be the mountains. Still hot and humid - still hoping for a storm tomorrow, as NetWeather.tv say 75%...more like 1%

[Harry]

Where??? Am i missing something????

As for later this week. SBCAPE has certainly downgraded and so has the storm risk (GFS), however, are the storms that the met office are talking about of the elevated variety? GFS storm risk charts never pick up on them very well.

Looking at tomorrow... I think some parts of north and east Wales and N England could do well tomorrow with some wind convergence and pretty decent CAPE.

I wondered this too - thursday night/evening there is the hint, even on GFS of storms just brushing past the SE - a lot of storms which come up from France due to the channel tend to become elevated in nature.

What's more, there seems to be very big degree of uncertainty over timing, which appears to be crucial. A more slack W influence could see storms, albeit elevated, pile across S/SE counties. Too early, and it could push them away.

Yes, I admit I am disappointed with indications - but GFS has been wrong many times recently for storms especially where the SE is concerned - roll on thursday/friday.

[Tim B]

May well see a storm in the next few hours here. The storms in Central West Wales are just starting to take a more NNE track it seems.

Edit: They are weakening considerably it seems. While it is possible we might get a downpour later, any electrics with either be subdued or non-existant.

Possibly, though my local forecast earlier said there will be heavy showers continuing to develop through wales and pushing up through here till around midnight.

Though I'm not confident about any significant electrical activity associated with them.

[Tn9]

Yes Penny Tranter said.....Concerned as a large area of rain will be very heavy with TS from the West.

They are keeping an eye on the developments....will all go off with a bang ..her words

looked convinced

Never thrust anybody that looks convinced

[Paul R]

Possibly, though my local forecast earlier said there will be heavy showers continuing to develop through wales and pushing up through here till around midnight.

Though I'm not confident about any significant electrical activity associated with them.

BBC Wales forecast said that they would die out by around 10-11pm, leaving a mostly dry night. In any case, they do seem to be decaying as the evening is wearing on.

[03jtrickey]

I'm liking the forecast for where I'm going to be on Thursday courtesy of ZAMG (Austria Met Office).

"After the partly friendly regionally also sunny first day half numerous heap clouds originate in the muggy-warm air, it is to be calculated again on flaming up thunderstorm and shower activity. Single thunderstorm stoves will be violent. Mostly it is weakly windy. Early temperatures 13 to 19, maximum temperatures 23 to 29 degrees."

I loved the pigeon translation too

Perhaps I will see my first proper thunderstorm in at least a year - we shall see :-D

Edited June 30, 2009 by 03jtrickey

[Supacell]

It is ridiculously humid here. Looks like another sleepless night. I would take numerous sleepless nights if it meant getting to see a big thunderstorm at the end of it.

One thing about these sort of set ups is that nothing is predictable. I remember last year in July getting a storm in the middle of the night that wasn't forecast. Think the ridge of high pressure is killing off any chances east of the central spine of England though... although a storm in the vale of York earlier kind of crushes that theory.

I too am confused

Can we expect to get some cooler air aloft over the next few days, that may help with thunderstorm development.

Edited June 30, 2009 by Supacell

[Snowyowl9]

Thursday will probably be the best day of the week that`ll be in the west again,High pressure is too close this week perhaps why theres not as much thunder activity as there should be it this very warm upper air flow.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/brack1.gif

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn544.png

Tomorrow I`ll be keeping a look out aswell.

[StormChaser]

Its looking very stormy here, some lovely storm clouds forming i just hope It kicks off.

[A.J]

A couple of showers trying to get their act together just north of gloucester by the looks of things, probably wont amount to much, but hey, at least its convective discussion!

the crazy thing is that there's loads of energy and lift available just not a lot to trigger it

Edited June 30, 2009 by ajpoolshark