Storm/convective Discussion

[StormChaser]

hmm, i think i maybe getting my hopes up too high, just looks like a passing cloud. Allthough it does have the indication of a storm brewing.

[Paul R]

Seems that the showers over Mid Wales are decaying quite readily as they move North. While it is very muggy and warm out there at the moment, I'm doubtful of any sort of re-intensification.

[SteveB]

Yes Penny Tranter said.....Concerned as a large area of rain will be very heavy with TS from the West.

They are keeping an eye on the developments....will all go off with a bang ..her words

looked convinced

Lets hope they are right this time.

[Costa Del Fal]

Shower to my SW has intensified significantly and is pumping out 4mm per hour rainfall rates..camera's charged. B)

Wow-mega rainfall rates! Still, its something.

I certainly wont take any notice of Thursday until it comes to the actual day because im sure like many times before it will be patchy light rain with thunder from bins being put out and lightning from switching on the lights because its another dull day.

Edited June 30, 2009 by Blizzards

[Harry]

Just got a very sudden and quite sharp headache and earache simultaenously - felt like the pressure change when taking off in an aeroplane.

Talk about clasping at straws, lol

Quick question - radar return of the channel, IoW 21:15 - is that a big anaprop or is there some activity in the channel building rapidly?

Edited June 30, 2009 by Harry

[StormChaser]

God I need a storm to clear this humid air its so , so sticky here. Ive given up hope now, even tho netweather has me at 65% for one.

[Harry]

Hmm - just had a glance at the pressure charts on GFS - seems very hit and miss - area of L pressure to the W seems to wave backwards and forwards over and over again - with a secondary and weak low forming across the Brest peninsula area of France. This looks to be what might steer the more stormy conditions across France and then push it East towards to Benelux. There is then (on Sat) a further surge of very high CAPE/LI levels and presumably higher humidity out of the Bay of Biscay, across N France and the Benelux, not too far from the UK.

This suggests to me that there is a great chain of events required for there NOT to be storms, than for there to BE storms.

Quite exciting IMO watching how the charts and ultimately the weather will pan out

Edited June 30, 2009 by Harry

[Costa Del Fal]

Personally i dont think Thursday will be very stormy imo considering all the downgrades recently. Will have to wait until the actual day but first impressions look rubbish.

[Karen Ann]

Hope you all get what you are waiting for. I'd waited a very long time for a really decent storm here (which arrived last Thursday night, and it was apparently very decent from what I hear) and it ended up that I couldn't watch it due to my dogs 'new found' fear of storms.......argghhhh.

[twister2005]

Does anyone know if them showers around bristol are intensifying ?

[Shaun L]

Showers are continuing to break out over mid wales. Probably won't amount to much but .................................

[Paul R]

Showers are continuing to break out over mid wales. Probably won't amount to much but .................................

I doubt they'll amount to much. They'll die away pretty shortly I imagine. Did you hear the thunder yesterday evening at all Shaun? I heard two distant rumbles from a cell to the north, so I thought you may have heard something.

[Harry]

Rob McElwee, rather predictably is not very keen on using the 'T' word, though did say the transition towards cooler air, will see it getting "very wet indeed"!

[A.J]

sharp shower just popped up about 15 miles SW of me, definitely worth keeping my eye on, quite a strong core

[chapmanslade]

Just got a very sudden and quite sharp headache and earache simultaenously.

Quick question - radar return of the channel, IoW 21:15 - is that a big anaprop or is there some activity in the channel building rapidly?

Somebody shot you in the head ?

Yes anaprop I think

Very little of the rain on the radar on the trough line will be reaching the ground - it has a long way to fall through very warm air and will meet itself going back.

There is absolutely no reason why a cold front moving into the west should set off storms per se. A lot of other factors need to be present other than a change of airmass. I remember one notable occasion 4 or 5 years ago where the temperature dropped from late 20's to late teens in half an hour accompanied by a change of wind direction and a little cloud - not a drop of rain. I suspect that similar may be the case for the East of the UK this weekend. It isn't mandatory for the weather to be exciting, but it doesn't stop it being interesting.

[Fitzwis]

I was looking at those monster cells in France on SAT and they were clearly headed ENE so no surprised people from there missed out. As John Holmes was saying earlier, take note of the wind direction on the GFS overlay and SAT loop and avoid disappointment when things don't go your way.

Cheers for the tip weather09. To be honest, I was monitoring StormVue which at the time was showing strikes from that particular cell moving in a NNE direction before dieing approximately 35 miles to my South...will know better next time

[Harry]

Somebody shot you in the head ?

Yes anaprop I think

Very little of the rain on the radar on the trough line will be reaching the ground - it has a long way to fall through very warm air and will meet itself going back.

There is absolutely no reason why a cold front moving into the west should set off storms per se. A lot of other factors need to be present other than a change of airmass. I remember one notable occasion 4 or 5 years ago where the temperature dropped from late 20's to late teens in half an hour accompanied by a change of wind direction and a little cloud - not a drop of rain. I suspect that similar may be the case for the East of the UK this weekend. It isn't mandatory for the weather to be exciting, but it doesn't stop it being interesting.

Yes it does - thunder and lightning is far more interesting and exciting than a blanket of stratus, lol

UPDATE - YES!! Kaddy has just said there is no rain on the horizon, the SE or "our area hogging the best of the weather yet again"......banging thunderstorms for us then hahaha!!!!!

Edited June 30, 2009 by Harry

[maidstone weather]

18z upgrade for Midlands again on Thurs, but still the SE is having nothing?!

[Costa Del Fal]

Thursday looks good for here again! I cant bare the yo yo type charts! Lol.

[StormChaseUK]

Managed to drive about 30 miles west of my location and catch the Wales storms as they trundled north through the evening.

Quite small cells, but potent little buggers that put down fair amount of rain.

Lightning caught on HD video below

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QtjeZGaEwbY

[Paul R]

Nice video. I'm about to get the remnants of one of those storms shortly, they're little more than light rain showers now.

[Dean E]

Does anyone know whats happening in the Channel?

I am Located near the IOW and have noticed that a few showers have popped up in the last hour. Anything coming my way?

even if it is small? :lol:

[dogs32]

woman on Sky ramping it up about Thursday...

Widespread severe Storms :lol:

So Sky is now falling into line with BBC for the Thursday event :lol:

it looks dead on radar...

Edited June 30, 2009 by dogs32

[Harry]

18z upgrade for Midlands again on Thurs, but still the SE is having nothing?!

I am of a different view - if you run both the storm risk and CAPE run for thursday, you can see the CAPE seems to feed in across from the SE. What is also noticeable, is there seems to be a more positive indication for imports...

Again, not getting my hopes up or anything, but it is more promising for us in the SE than the last run IMO :lol:

woman on Sky ramping it up about Thursday...

Widespread severe Storms

So Sky is now falling into line with BBC for the Thursday event

it looks dead on radar...

Rob McElwee on the BBC website/News 24 interactive was very hesitant to use the T word at 9pm this evening - 10.30pm however was a complete different ball game, mentioning widespread torrential rain and an abundance of thunder (not his exact works but to a similar effect).

The charts tomorrow will be scrutinised more than they have probably ever been on here, or at least for a good while :lol:

Edited June 30, 2009 by Harry

[Neilsouth]

Ahhhh just as i said earlier in comes the north sea cloud , its even foggy outside!. Does feel really nice and cool though , just hope it doesn't stick around too much this week for storms :lol: