Model Output Discussion

[Bottesford]

Yes please cease the off topic talk - we need some model talk in here please! Just what is going to happen next week?

Well it looks like the incoming low will very slowly move across the UK (so some slow moving rain and possibly high rainfall totals but with lots of pleasent sunshine inbetween).

After that it looks like we're looking at a northerly so some cooler fresher weather but probably quite sunny too. Less good for evening sitting out but good for getting out in the day.

After that who knows...

[mushymanrob]

Yes it is (unreasonable).

You naysayers just put everyone on a downer.

You CANNOT predict a full seasons weather in advance. Even the met office with their reources can't.

I think you amatuers should stick to short term discussion.

no one was predicting a whole season in advance, only compareing what the synoptics were showing in early june to what they showed in 2 previous wet summers. i saw NO prediction that the whole summer would be a washout, only CONCERN that similar synoptics were rearing their ugly head again. its all well and good now with hindsight to mock those concerns, but the people who did that 2 years ago were (unfortunately) proven wrong.

its not a case of 'putting everyone on a downer', we, i, commented on what the then models were showing, northern blocking - southerly tracking jet, luckily this year that broke early on, the last 2 summers it didnt. i stand by my THEN concerns that this summer could have been another washout, fortunately it doesnt look like that will happen now :lol:

i think nearly everyone on here is an amatuer .....

[Methuselah]

That was an important lesson for me: never compare consecutive runs - they're like apples and pears!

What I see (imagine, hope?) is a week or so of never-too-cold northerlies POSSIBLY and HOPEFULLY followed by sustained presure rises from the west EVENTUALLY leading to a long and impresive heatwave... :lol:

PS: I'm not shouting!

[Eugene]

This is a shocking chart for almost mid July, really it is, i think some people who think next week isnt looking too bad have their heads up in the clouds just like next week will be cool and cloudy.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1561.png

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

This is a shocking chart for almost mid July, really it is, i think some people who think next week isnt looking too bad have their heads up in the clouds just like next week will be cool and cloudy.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1561.png

I'm sure most people will be relieved that its now cool enough to get a nights sleep.

[Uncle_Barty]

I wouldnt say it's a shocking chart for mid July - should be pleasant enough down here at least.

You want a shocking chart for July?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/...00120080706.gif

In view of the uncertainties with the teleconnections as mentioned by GP and co, I am not taking anything from the models with any seriousness beyond 120H. A look at them suggests unsettled to the edge of FI, but then thats where we were a month ago and look what happened.

[MP-R]

Well what a change a day makes! Yesterday was hot, humid and sunny with altocumulus and virtually no breeze with the temperature soaring to 30.2C - today is much clearer, fresher, cooler and windier with the temperature at a mere 22.8C in comparison.

I'm not sure if the N-W forecasts are undercooking the temperatures slightly but it does look like getting quite a bit cooler next week if their temperatures are anything to go by. Nonetheless, after the recent heat and humidity, a cooler fresher spell wouldn't go amiss and looks like plenty of shower potential. It would be ncie to have some days like 2nd and 3rd July last year!

[PB22]

The cooler and more showery theme for next week is very much evident on the 12z GFS. However, its not all gloom and doom as sunny spells will feel very pleasant indeed with temperatures still into the low 20's in the south:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn961.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1201.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1441.html

Temperatures:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rmgfs1024.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rmgfs1264.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rmgfs1504.html

All in all not bad summer weather on the cards to be honest. Yes there will be some showers at times, but not a washout by any means and it won't be particularly unpleasant.

[johnholmes]

latest lrf link below; out to 23 July

will it turn hot again?

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...p;#entry1558429

[Thundersquall]

Haven't been on here for ages, but the charts for 18Z after the recent heatwave are so, so dissapinting, aren't they?

Temperatures barely threatening to climb above 20 C and a decidedly poor 10 C over parts of Scotland at times.

By the way a rather unexpected and extremely isolated thunderstorm hit Bristol yesterday mid-afternoon.

Edited July 3, 2009 by Thundersquall

[TEITS]

This is a shocking chart for almost mid July, really it is, i think some people who think next week isnt looking too bad have their heads up in the clouds just like next week will be cool and cloudy.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1561.png

Next week won't be as bad as you suggest.

The week will start unsettled with LP centred over the UK. However as the LP moves E and we pull in a N,ly, some locations especially S counties could remain fine all day with sunny intervals and temps around 21C.

Besides to expect a continuation of 30C temps is like expecting prolonged sub zero temps in winter. This rarely happens so its a case of enjoying the refreshing average temps before the next heatwave arrives.

[RichardW2]

These delightful GFS updates remind of two words: "Hello October".

[PB22]

The 00z model output maintains the theme from the last couple of days for next week.

GFS keeps the cool flow from the north/northwest going for most of the week with sunshine and showers the order of the day on most days - it won't be a washout by any means and there will be sunny spells to enjoy:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn961.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1201.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1441.html

We all know how winter time northerlies can sometimes produce average temperatures in the south, and it looks like being the case next week with values in the south never far away from normal:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rmgfs904.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rmgfs1144.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rmgfs1384.html

UKMO starts off with a showery northwesterly, but high pressure builds in for a time:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rukm961.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rukm1201.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rukm1441.html

ECM again goes down the same route, with suggestions of a slight improvement later next weeK

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm961.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm1201.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm1441.html

To summarise then, whilst the outlook is cooler with more showers, it could be a whole lot worse. It is impossible for Britain to experience persistently hot summery weather all the time, if thats what you are often then I would suggest you look to move abroad to a traditionally hot country.

[Alex95]

I agree, whilst up here temperatures will probably be below average, sunshine is likely so it won't feel too bad. Some signals are starting to point towards another heatwave during the second half of this month, and if this is the case I'll really enjoy the variety. One long heatwave gets too much, as does endless wet weather. Hopefully this year we'll get a traditional mix of everything The wind maybe a bit strong in the north this week though, and that would make it feel a bit chilly, but its hard to say what the exact conditions will be like.

Edited July 4, 2009 by alza

[Methuselah]

Looks to be similar up here: a tad chilly perhaps, but onshore breeze could make for plenty of sunshine? All-in-all not too bad.

[MR EXTREMES]

in winter nice charts in summer well cool but not terrible.

[Eugene]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png

A prolonged cool unsettled spell looking likely, average maxs are 22C in July for the south midlands so not looking forward to maxs in the mid teens by mid week with lots of cloud and some rain, cool northerly airflow followed by southerly tracking jet.

[chapmanslade]

Well 24C here currently not feeling too bad considering the doom laden posts we have had.

The high moving in mid week looks stronger on current runs and as we all know anything after 5 or 6 days is little better than a guess. I do feel the GFS in particular has a 'default' state which it reverts to when there are no strong signals to suggest otherwise (the default being atlantic driven westerly) Suggesting that GFS is predicting 2 weeks or more of the same just means it hasn't picked up on a new pattern yet. I think what happens with the ridge to our west mid week is important for the following week. I wouldn't be surprised to see a reset to what we have recently been experiencing in a weeks time - dont forget that hot spell developed from a cool NW airstream 2 weeks ago.

P.S. we REALLY need some rain here now, missed all of the storms recently and sandy soil is turning to dust.

[TonyH]

Well, to get an average month (difficult these days), we need some cool spells. However I doubt next week will come in more than a degree below average, and most certainly the south Midlands wont see maxima in the mid teens! Nor is it likely to be dull or wet! Where does this guy get them from :lol:

[Methuselah]

Well, to get an average month (difficult these days), we need some cool spells. However I doubt next week will come in more than a degree below average, and most certainly the south Midlands wont see maxima in the mid teens! Nor is it likely to be dull or wet! Where does this guy get them from :lol:

Your guess is as good as mine! :lol:

[tinybill]

Well, to get an average month (difficult these days), we need some cool spells. However I doubt next week will come in more than a degree below average, and most certainly the south Midlands wont see maxima in the mid teens! Nor is it likely to be dull or wet! Where does this guy get them from :lol:

well i go here to me next week looks horrible thunder storms and rain!!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_carte...de=0&mode=2

[TonyH]

well i go here to me next week looks horrible thunder storms and rain!!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_carte...de=0&mode=2

Horrible is somewhat an overstatement I feel!

Slow moving shallow low until mid week, some rain/showers at times in parts but with sunny spells and average temperatures, followed by a clear, fresh and bright NW flow to end the week. Quite nice really, as a bit of rain and cool down is to be appreciated.

[Spurry]

Horrible is somewhat an overstatement I feel!

Slow moving shallow low until mid week, some rain/showers at times in parts but with sunny spells and average temperatures, followed by a clear, fresh and bright NW flow to end the week. Quite nice really, as a bit of rain and cool down is to be appreciated. :lol:

Why is horrible an overstatement ?, not everyone loves storms..personally if it's gonna rain then yes i hope we get thunder/lightening with it ,but i'd rather it didn't rain at all if i'm honest, so when i see LP's on the charts heading this way from the west then my heart sinks .I would be quite happy with a summer from may-September when every day is between 25c-35c and sunny, i could accept the rest of the year being dull/drab/boring or cold if i was offered that scenario

Edited July 4, 2009 by Spurry

[TonyH]

Why is horrible an overstatement ?

Because I do not believe it will be at all horrible next week, in fact most days will have be pleasant enough for me..i.e. sunny spells, average July temperatures, with a few heavy showers around for added interest.

Horrible would be Eugene's scenario of mid teen maxima, persistently overcast conditions and rain!!

Edited July 4, 2009 by Tonyh

[Methuselah]

On the subject of storms - some places in the southeastern quadrant may see some spectaculars next week.

PS: I do say 'may'!