Storms & Convective Discussion

[Kookylou]

Spare a thought for us freezing our arses off on the East Coast - Already down to 15c with a brisk wind off the North Sea - Absolutely down right cold out there again, mind you it only maxed at 19c today at Shoeburyness

Paul S

as i am off to bed soon, 15 would be bliss! last i heard it was 18 here!!

scratch that - just been told it's 22!! i think i was wishing!!

Edited July 1, 2009 by kookylou

[kaz]

Temp outside atm is 22.5oC!

Anyone know if Dorset will be hit tonight/tomorrow?

Yes

[viking_smb]

as i am off to bed soon, 15 would be bliss! last i heard it was 18 here!!

scratch that - just been told it's 22!! i think i was wishing!!

it is warm here in cardiff :lol:

but I got fan on and all windows closed and curtains tucked round so I dont see lightning if we have any

[Kookylou]

it is warm here in cardiff :lol:

but I got fan on and all windows closed and curtains tucked round so I dont see lightning if we have any

well they've not forecast anything for us!

[richep]

Just got home from work, are any of those showers down south likely to hit somerset, they look to be moving north-west

[Paul Sherman]

Yep

Off to bed soon as well, good luck guys in the SW With both your Storms and Sleeping tonight!

Looks like Friday may be the day for some heavy showers for South Eastern parts with temps cooling right down to 22c on Sunday , current BBC Forecasts look dreadful if you wanted a typical End to 30c+ temps with a pretty benign end over the next 3-4 days.

There is always the next hot spell.............in 2012

[Lewis]

Good evening folks, just been looking at the radar and lightning detectors, and heres my 2 pennys worth;

Current shizzle pushing out of France is moving more N'wards than NE'wards. Sferics will start to pick up N coast of cornwall after some of the showers pass through, further east Devon/Exeter then N'wards into the B Channel, Storms picking up with intensity, S wales will get something too. Once it hits the B channel area expect it to become even more slow moving, before moving a more NE'wards track affecting the west mids, up into manchester area. Some storms are possible in the C midlands, and some triggering off in central S england, but we need to keep an eye on this M, which could be a huge factor for the SE next getting any storms tomorrow.

As for people "talking about the cool down", the real transition won't take place until Saturday night/early hours of Sunday, although temps will be more respectable, areas in the South and also the East (Parts of N England also) will reach 24-27c.

My guess is thundery showers tomorrow.. Friday more or less the same but more widespread, you wait and see what happens saturday night and then early hours of monday morning.

Lewis

[Wales123098]

Im privlaged to have American parents who cant live without airconditioning lol, my weather station reporting a temperture of 22.9c at 23:38 here in the North of Cardiff about 12miles inland. Today the temperture soared to 29.4c the hottest since the heat waves in 2006. Storms arriving in the SW and South Wales over night should be an interesting day ahead with tempertures like this. Perfect set up.

[richep]

Richard angwin said on points west weather this dinner time that the storms/showers will lose their energy as they move east tomorrow. Is he wrong?

[Dean E]

Has anyone noticed this cool down in the south?

Its currenty 15.3c Here which is the coolest it has been for a while in the evenings this week, And its even starting to turn misty?

Strange

[andy_leics22]

Hmmm seeing as there is significantly more people in here than there is in the heatwave thread... The temperature reached 33.9c today in Leicestershire, do we have a case for hottest temperature of the year so far? It can't be a one-off reading because 2 weather stations in Leicestershire reported similiar readings. Guy on my street has a weather station, had a chat with him and he said 93f was reached this afternoon and an online weather station in Oadby said 33.9c max this afternoon.

[Lewis]

Richard angwin said on points west weather this dinner time that the storms/showers will lose their energy as they move east tomorrow. Is he wrong?

It all depends on the following factors;

1. How slow moving the showers/thunderstorms are.

2. Clear sky's allowing temps to rise quickly, the storms can then use the energy from the surface.

3. If theres anything actually left on the radar when we wake up tomorrow .

As you can probably see now, it's a very messy radar and situation, and this is during non-daylight, so realisticly anything can happen tomorrow and it's just a case of watching the radars. I do think that areas further N/NE will fair much better tomorrow.

Lewis

[Marcus_surfer]

Very warm and humid, 22.3C Humidity 72%, Please give us a bloody storm!!

Edited July 1, 2009 by Marcus_surfer

[Damone]

Just had thunderstorm move through quite close to my town. Wasn't too intense, although I'm glad I wasn't directly under it. Strikes quite far apart and oddly our lights didn't even flicker, so it made me wonder whether it produced mostly IC?

Stopped raining now, but from the look of the rainfall radar looks like we're in for some more shortly.

[Lewis]

No, this band of thundery rain will weaken as it slowly pushes NE but it's what happens afterwards which is what I'm more interested in. Tbh if I was living in the SW I wouldn't be too excited about this band of thundery rain since I really don't think there will be much in the way of lightning or thunder, I just think the main threat is heavy rain.

Hopefully when the cold front/trough comes in from the west it will destabilise the atmosphere ahead of it and with high temps (30C) it should, I think, bode well for storm development particuarly for tomorrow evening. That's just my opinion though.

Places NE of you will typically do well, and knowing your luck you will be the breeder lol!

[Wilxy]

What about bristol how will i do tomorow.

[A.J]

It all depends on the following factors;

1. How slow moving the showers/thunderstorms are.

2. Clear sky's allowing temps to rise quickly, the storms can then use the energy from the surface.

3. If theres anything actually left on the radar when we wake up tomorrow .

As you can probably see now, it's a very messy radar and situation, and this is during non-daylight, so realisticly anything can happen tomorrow and it's just a case of watching the radars. I do think that areas further N/NE will fair much better tomorrow.

Lewis

concerning tonight, one of the key things to look for are the lapse rates, which are fairly high in southern counties (28C).....SBCAPE is pretty irrelevent as their's no surface heating, but MLCAPE is important as there's lots of unstable warm moist air at mid-altitudes, hence the elevated nature of any overnight storms...IMO, the onus tonight though is more on heavy rain as apposed to thunderstorms..(just noticed 'weather09' beat me to that bit!....I would however, love mother nature to prove me wrong and give everyone down south a fantastic show

Edited July 1, 2009 by ajpoolshark

[Nick F]

Netweather storm forecast issued for Thursday: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

[Lewis]

Netweather storm forecast issued for Thursday: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

Come on Nick, please put a tiny tiny dot over hull

I think you should extend it eastwards (the line that is)

[andy_leics22]

Glad you raised that point, since UKASF said that if storms do develop tomorrow for the Midlands they would die out by evening but for the NE would continue well into the evening and perhaps night. It's all up in the air at the moment but honestly there is a still a genuine chance of storms for people North and East of the SW Midlands.

Still reckon that the temperature I mentioned earlier of 33.9c in Leicestershire was BS? You said you thought London was hotter today, well apperantly the central Midlands was hotter than London this afternoon. Coventry, Leicester, Coalville, Derby all were a few degrees higher than London.

On the subject of storms... Some pretty tasty ones heading towards Devon and Cornwall right now.

[Nick F]

18z UKMO meso doesn't miss out the SE with convective rainfall overnight Thurs/Fri morning thankfully, as the cold front shifts east, - there is what looks like an MCS drifting NE just ahead of the cold front

[Neilsouth]

LOL

I'd love to be on the biscay coast just looking out to sea..

[Tim B]

Ok that I was not expecting, a flash just came from nowhere and caused my lights to dim.

[Lewis]

Still reckon that the temperature I mentioned earlier of 33.9c in Leicestershire was BS? You said you thought London was hotter today, well apperantly the central Midlands was hotter than London this afternoon. Coventry, Leicester, Coalville, Derby all were a few degrees higher than London.

On the subject of storms... Some pretty tasty ones heading towards Devon and Cornwall right now.

What time was this? Because at around 2:45PM here i hit 28.7c

Also this morning around 11:30-12:10 pm hull was one of the hottest places (warmer than the SE)

When i checked xcweather, msn local conditions and the BBC this afternoon (and i checked frequently) derby/coventry/lshire was hovering around 29.6c

33 degree's, maybe when you had the oven on, but trust me home made weather stations can be funny buggers sometimes. If you did hit 33c it would be in the media, or at least easy viewing to the publics eyes.

Edited July 1, 2009 by Lewis

[Kain]

Nick if that MCS drifts towards us, wouldn't it hinder todays chance of storms?

Like last friday?