Storms & Convective Discussion

[SteveB]

Indeed so, Steve, a definite case of wait and see. But yes, the latest MO's (NAE) output suggests the focus being a tad further westwards, through the likes of Taunton northwards to the Bristol Channel (plus anywhere west of here during the morning; e.g., Exmoor, N Devon etc), before it all shifts north and somewhat eastwards, weakening as the upper feature over-runs. But there's been some considerable run-to-run variance in the regional detail, plus GFS is still eager to beef-up the collective totals beyond those indicated in the latest NAE..... all symptomatic of the problems in nailing this one down with any certainty, re the areal extent of any genuinely severe weather. It could be that you still get a real deluge in W-s-M; let's see what the next model output and high-res PPN prognosis offers. The risk indicated by the MO's regional advisory certainly remains valid.

Best

Ian

Thanks for that Ian, & welcome.

While we have had the heat this week, the forecast for storms has not materialized for this area.

Lets see if tomorrow can put that right.

Edited July 1, 2009 by SteveB

[dogs32]

omg.just looked at the radar.

wow thats some heavy rain over north France

Edited July 1, 2009 by dogs32

[donna-m]

Not everyone Nick :lol:

Top temp around the Southend area today was 21c and Shoeburyness did not get above 19c all day, looking east now there is a Bank of either Thick Fog or Cloud about to envelop the SE Essex area, so any of you further West into the London area be prepared for Low cloud tomorrow morning if the wind dont shift

Paul S

Here in Clacton we've had cloud until about 10am everyday when its seeming to go back out to sea ,but returning by 7-8 pm where you can see it rolling in ,this has happen since saturday..

we've also had a refreshing breeze , top temp here only 22 and low 14 dew point also sitting at 14

[Wilxy]

It doesn't seem that the channel would kill the cells mainly when it hits land in uk it slowly weakens i think thats the case.

[gpspete]

looking at my eumetcast system the storms over Brittany Normandy area ar slow moving is any one standing bye on the west coast of Isle of Wight or high ground in Dorset to try for a photo of sprites above the storms

Edited July 1, 2009 by gpspete

[Wilxy]

it looks like its moving more north the moment if so dorset coast will get it all possibly.

[CaptainHappy]

looking at my eumetcast system the storms other Brittany Normandy area ar slow moving is any one standing bye on the west coast of Isle of Wight or high ground in Dorset to try for a photo of sprites above the storms

I never knew that sprites could be visable from the ground like that. Those storms are a fair old way away. Is it even likely that sprites could be seen at such a distance? I dont know much about them or what causes them, so forgive my ignorance :lol:

[Devon-Nelly]

I hope that MCS over northern france acutally reaches our shores, been itching for some acitivty all week. I have my camera ready! lol

[Ian Fergusson]

I don't think those storms over France will affect Dorset/Hampshire as some are hoping. I think they're attached the the long waving front so if anything will travel up into the far SW along the front.

Welcome Ian, good to see a local forecaster posting. Any chance of getting Richard Angwin on here too :lol: , a number of us mention the Points West forecasts regularly - including earlier this afternoon.

Hi Andy,

re (1) The PPN (MCS) across the channel, yes, current thinking takes it on a trajectory more towards SW peninsula rather than due north, as you suggest;

re (2) Actually, Rich is a Netweather subscriber now too, after I convinced him earlier this week

I'll try to update the forum with the NAE's spatial and temporal handling of the PPN intensity here in the SW once I see the new run..... after I'm back at our weatherdesk at 0400 tomorrow morning and who knows, it might all have changed complexion by then.... again!

[Wilxy]

Hi Andy,

re (1) The PPN (MCS) across the channel, yes, current thinking takes it on a trajectory more towards SW peninsula rather than due north, as you suggest;

re (2) Actually, Rich is a Netweather subscriber now too, after I convinced him earlier this week

I'll try to update the forum with the NAE's spatial and temporal handling of the PPN intensity here in the SW once I see the new run..... after I'm back at our weatherdesk at 0400 tomorrow morning and who knows, it might all have changed complexion by then.... again!

hi nice to see someone else from bristol hows it looking then i mean its taking a more northerly track at the moment.

[Godot]

Does this mean people are going to stop being quite so rude about BBC forecasts in this thread now? :lol:

It feels a lot less humid here this evening. I don't think I'll be staying up tonight, but we'll see.

[Wilxy]

Does this mean people are going to stop being quite so rude about BBC forecasts in this thread now? :lol:

It feels a lot less humid here this evening. I don't think I'll be staying up tonight, but we'll see.

Could you let me know what happens down there i hear somerset gunna be worst hit in are region.

[LeeKay]

I never knew that sprites could be visable from the ground like that. Those storms are a fair old way away. Is it even likely that sprites could be seen at such a distance? I dont know much about them or what causes them, so forgive my ignorance :lol:

The Eurosprite Blog has many images and video over the past few years. Maps too to show how far they were away.

http://eurosprite.blogspot.com/

[gpspete]

spites can be photographed from quite a distance you need to be able to look over storm google sprites one site to check out is http://eurosprite.blogspot.com/ it talks about low light special cams but they can be photographed on normal DSLR

Edited July 1, 2009 by gpspete

[CaptainHappy]

The Eurosprite Blog has many images and video over the past few years. Maps too to show how far they were away.

http://eurosprite.blogspot.com/

Thanks for that. Ill have a gander now

Very interesting stuff. Fascinating to see that they can be viewed from over 100km away. My camera is nowhere near up to scratch, but ill certainly keep my eyes open at the coast. Be great to see something like that

Edited July 1, 2009 by Southernskies

[dogs32]

It does seem to be growing North the large cell in North France

[Paul R]

Intense cell popped up just south of Manchester on the 8.15pm meteox radar.

[Ian Fergusson]

hi nice to see someone else from bristol hows it looking then i mean its taking a more northerly track at the moment.

Hmmm.....more NNW track really; current PPN prediction takes it up towards Plymouth and environs towards dawn, then an easterly shift with some heavy pulses feeding northwards into Cornwall / Devon /Dorset / Somerset; more of a weaker, showery signal trailing northwards up in Bristol and Glos by mid to late morning onwards, but take it all with a (major) pinch of salt re local detail, as the next model output will undoubtedly see some modifications as we try to understand the shape of the upper trough and how this will drive the areal and temporal extent of forcing. Certainly the risk of some potent localised downpours, but where, exactly....? Yup, welcome to my world at 0400-1130 tomorrow. But for best guess, I'd hope the culverts are suitably cleared of debris in Crewkerne, for example.

Cheers

Ian

[Wilxy]

Hmmm.....more NNW track really; current PPN prediction takes it up towards Plymouth and environs towards dawn, then an easterly shift with some heavy pulses feeding northwards into Cornwall / Devon /Dorset / Somerset; more of a weaker, showery signal trailing northwards up in Bristol and Glos by mid to late morning onwards, but take it all with a (major) pinch of salt re local detail, as the next model output will undoubtedly see some modifications as we try to understand the shape of the upper trough and how this will drive the areal and temporal extent of forcing. Certainly the risk of some potent localised downpours, but where, exactly....? Yup, welcome to my world at 0400-1130 tomorrow. But for best guess, I'd hope the culverts are suitably cleared of debris in Crewkerne, for example.

Cheers

Ian

Im guessing we arn't seeing any t-storms

[Godot]

Could you let me know what happens down there i hear somerset gunna be worst hit in are region.

My completely un-informed guess would be that I'll probably get some hail and thunder tomorrow, but nothing that extraordinary. We'll certainly get a lot of rain! If there looks like even a small chance of lightning tonight or into the morning hours then I'll probably stay up.

(In case anyone missed them, the pics of last Thursday's lightning are here.)

[r_dancing]

Is something happening south of Manchester?

[Ian Fergusson]

Im guessing we arn't seeing any t-storms

Certainly still a chance anywhere across West Country and Wales. Bristol included. Sorry to be unspecific but the nature and intensity of this feature has flip-flopped so much in recent model runs. But we're still suggesting possibility of some localised downpours perhaps touching 30-50mm. I stress localised. Either way, the surface run-off from lesser accumulations could become pretty bothersome for some areas; localised flooding certainly possible. Could be an interesting morning but I only get hyperventilated once I'm actually seeing reality real-time on the radar and hundreds of CG's on our ATDNet system!

[Jane Louise]

Hi all :lol:

Estofex have now given their forecast for tommorow looks good. Can't post up link as I have to save time on my laptop battery.I'm sure you all know the link anyway it's probably in your bookmarks lol.

[Wilxy]

Certainly still a chance anywhere across West Country and Wales. Bristol included. Sorry to be unspecific but the nature and intensity of this feature has flip-flopped so much in recent model runs. But we're still suggesting possibility of some localised downpours perhaps touching 30-50mm. I stress localised. Either way, the surface run-off from lesser accumulations could become pretty bothersome for some areas; localised flooding certainly possible. Could be an interesting morning but I only get hyperventilated once I'm actually seeing reality real-time on the radar and hundreds of CG's on our ATDNet system!

oh good just the fact we havn't seen any storms in this heatwave apart from last week when i saw distant lightening and thunder.

[CaptainHappy]

Hi all :lol:

Estofex have now given their forecast for tommorow looks good. Can't post up link as I have to save time on my laptop battery.I'm sure you all know the link anyway it's probably in your bookmarks lol.

Its not in mine...yet. Little help anyone? :lol: