Storms & Convective Discussion

[Wilxy]

Interesting, some increased development over the channel from the large area of rain heading up into the south west.

Could they be high based storms? It looks like the embedded cells are feeding off an area of high MLCAPE, the question still remains though as to if the area of instability will feed far enough northwards or whether like the last two recent scenarios similar to this, thundery activity will be limited.

hi dave u in exeter cause if not id recomend u do.

[leightonw890]

Poor Ian Furgusson, bombarded with all these questions. It is good to have another meteorologist in the forums though, it all help people like myself get a greater understanding of the complexity of weather, so welcome! Any chance you can get Derick from BBC Wales to join?

[dave48]

hi dave u in exeter cause if not id recomend u do.

Am in Bath for the summer now, looks like Exeter might not be a bad place to be, oh well!

[Wilxy]

Am in Bath for the summer now, looks like Exeter might not be a bad place to be, oh well!

Not looking so good here for t-storms tho is it.

[maidstone weather]

Well the north sea cloud has again rolled in , wasn't it supposed to bugger off with the wind change?.

Still though it is really nice and cool outside , but i don't like north sea rubbish with storms

yes it does feel much fresher tonight, but have clear skies at the moment? no sign of any cloud in any direction. but fresher than previous nights, despite still being at 18C!

[dave48]

Not looking so good here for t-storms tho is it.

Indeed, infact was hoping for a bit more in general from this hot spell but still, a slight chance of something over tonight and into tomorrow.

[dogs32]

sferics are increasing on radar....

l

will the channel kill this cell or as it enough energy to cross..

Time will tell in the next few hrs

Edited July 1, 2009 by dogs32

[dave48]

sferics are increasing on radar....

l

will the channel kill this cell or as it enough energy to cross..

Time will tell in the next few hrs

Enough ML instability for them to thrive at the moment, but depends whether that instability feeds far enough northwards, if not the storms will just turn into rain. Hopefully though they will make it.

Someone please correct if that its wrong.

[Marcus_surfer]

HEAVY RAIN

Affecting SW England

An area of thunderstorms with locally torrential downpours will spread across southwestern parts of England tonight and will continue into Thursday morning before clearing away slowly northeastwards. Local downpours could generate 25 to 35 mm of rainfall, with perhaps up to 50 mm in places. This warning may be extended early on Thursday morning.

The public are advised to take extra care and refer to the 'Highways Agency' for further advice on traffic disruption on motorways and trunk roads.

[dogs32]

Enough ML instability for them to thrive at the moment, but depends whether that instability feeds far enough northwards, if not the storms will just turn into rain. Hopefully though they will make it.

Someone please correct if that its wrong.

Met update

Amber for the west.just been updated

South West England:

Cornwall & Isles of Scilly

Devon

Plymouth

Somerset

Torbay

Edited July 1, 2009 by dogs32

[Wilxy]

I hope il be able to see distant flashes if it reaches somerset.

[dave48]

HEAVY RAIN

Affecting SW England

An area of thunderstorms with locally torrential downpours will spread across southwestern parts of England tonight and will continue into Thursday morning before clearing away slowly northeastwards. Local downpours could generate 25 to 35 mm of rainfall, with perhaps up to 50 mm in places. This warning may be extended early on Thursday morning.

The public are advised to take extra care and refer to the 'Highways Agency' for further advice on traffic disruption on motorways and trunk roads.

The torrential downpours look likely but i'm still not convinced there will be significant thunderstorms, hopefully though, it is certainly a possibility.

[Wilxy]

The torrential downpours look likely but i'm still not convinced there will be significant thunderstorms, hopefully though, it is certainly a possibility.

i feel sory for u if only you were in exeter u may see some activity its still looking good on lightening radar

[Marcus_surfer]

The torrential downpours look likely but i'm still not convinced there will be significant thunderstorms, hopefully though, it is certainly a possibility.

Lets stay hopefull! It could possibly intensify as it crosses over warmer land...let us wait and see

[Damone]

Sorry for asking - just one question, I promise :blush:

I've been all over the net trying to find out what's happening, and I know how hard these things are to predict, but could anyone give me an idea on my chances? I'm a bit of a brontophobe so if there's any chance of far south-west missing the main band from France I'll be a happy bunny!

If we do get any I'm guessing they won't be as intense as those that may occur further up the westcountry?

[Wilxy]

that warning is likely to extend to SW wales soon

[dogs32]

that warning is likely to extend to SW wales soon

yes...........they update in Real time.

Most of the time.

.watch the warnings change throughout the night

Edited July 1, 2009 by dogs32

[dave48]

Lets stay hopefull! It could possibly intensify as it crosses over warmer land...let us wait and see

The models are fairly good for this, the BBC forecasts show some really strong colours, but the storms won't be surface based by the looks of it so the warmer land won't be able to help, we really need to hope this area of instability keeps moving out of France northwards. But yes, got to remain hopefull! :blush:

[Koppite]

Tracking 3 thunderstorms

Cell ID H-3027 detected at 20:23 from 217.5° at a distance of 90 miles. Storm is weak and steady.

Cell ID G-6120 detected at 21:15 from 27.1° at a distance of 129 miles. Storm is weak and steady.

Cell ID I-6083 detected at 21:14 from 205.2° at a distance of 63 miles. Storm is weak and intensifying.

This must be the storms heading into the south west, nothing else seems to be showing on latest radar.

Edited July 1, 2009 by Koppite

[Nick F]

Sorry for asking - just one question, I promise :blush:

I've been all over the net trying to find out what's happening, and I know how hard these things are to predict, but could anyone give me an idea on my chances? I'm a bit of a brontophobe so if there's any chance of far south-west missing the main band from France I'll be a happy bunny!

If we do get any I'm guessing they won't be as intense as those that may occur further up the westcountry?

I'd say there's aboout a 50% chance that you'll get a storm tonight where you are.

Quite alot of storm activity drifting NNE from Brittany towards Devon and E Cornwall.

[dogs32]

I'd say there's aboout a 50% chance that you'l get a storm tonight where you are.

Quite alot of storm activity drifting NNE from Brittany towards Devon.

Its not often Nick we see a wide area of colour like that here

:blush:

Edited July 1, 2009 by dogs32

[Damone]

I'd say there's aboout a 50% chance that you'l get a storm tonight where you are.

Quite alot of storm activity drifting NNE from Brittany towards Devon and E Cornwall.

Thanks for the answer! :blush: That's what I thought, but just wanted to make sure it wasn't a dead cert.

Guess just wait and watch...

[Marcus_surfer]

Its not often Nick we see a wide area of colour like that here

I am liking the look of the radar :blush:

[r_dancing]

Does that image show a cell south of manchester?

[weather vain]

Anyone fancy a quick prediction of the chances for Hereford ? Or am I to far north and east ??